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Loonie stabilizes near 1.34

al_dcdemo Posted 21 Dec.  in #Trader's blog #Yellen #Support #Resistance #USD/CAD #Fomc #Opec #D1 Chart
Canadian dollar sold off strongly against the U.S. dollar after FOMC upgraded tightening path and Yellen used the word "gradual" only twice at the last week's press conference. Oil prices remain firm after OPEC and non-OPEC production cut deals.
The pair sprang from the strong support zone (May - November trendline, 200 DMA, 2009 high) below 1.31 and almost completely retraced the decline from the first two weeks of the month in two days before stabilizing ahead of 1.3455 (Q3 2015 high). Looks b…
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Loonie gaps lower at the open

al_dcdemo Updated 12 Dec.  in #Trader's blog #Support #Resistance #USD/CAD #Opec #Wti #D1 Chart #Saudi Arabia #Oil Production
Over the weekend, OPEC and non-OPEC countries reached a deal to cut oil production. On top of that, Saudi Arabia showed their commitment by declaring that they will cut more than what they agreed on last week.
Oil prices opened sharply higher, WTI is currently up more than 5% on the day. Loonie gapped down at the open, extending the 450-pip fall since mid November. 2016 trendline near 1.31 is backed by 200 DMA. 1.3150 is the initial resistance.
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USD/CAD uptrend still intact

al_dcdemo Posted 30 Nov. as Analysis on USD/CAD, Target: 1.1361, Date: 2nd of January, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Resistance #Oil #USD/CAD #Opec #Uptrend
Monthly chart:
Price is in uptrend since 2011 and is nearing 61.8% retracement of the March 2009 to July 2011 decline. The next strong resistance is the declining trendline drawn off 2003, 2004, 2008 and 2009 highs, before 76.4% retracement and 200 month SMA.
Weekly chart:
The picture of the uptrend at the beginning of the week appeared like one of a trend that was about to top out. But after Thursday's OPEC decision price rallied and the result is a long bullish candle with close near its high…
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3 Comments
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al_dcdemo 6 Dec.

Update 1: The oil prices stabilized somewhat this week and so did the pair. On Friday after strong NFP report it made new high, but unlike other major pairs, it rejected it. Although the pair didn't break 1.15 and trade up to 61.8% monthly retracement, this price action is consistent with the goal of reaching the target at 1.1361.

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al_dcdemo 13 Dec.

Update 2: The pair broke 1.15 this week and closed near the highs. The next big level is 61.8% monthly retracement at 1.1665 . If the oil rebounds into year-end, as per the prediction (seems unlikely at the moment),  and the pair subsequently corrects lower, the target of 1.1361 may still be hit.

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al_dcdemo 20 Dec.

Update 3: After the pair broke 1.15 last week, it has traded up to 61.8% monthly retracement this week and then turned lower. The oil appears to be forming (most likely temporary) bottom and if it rebounds into year end, the pair may correct too. Most likely scenario for the last two trading weeks this year is consolidation, but we may still get some volatile moves due to thin liquidity.

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