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NZD/USD will continue to edge up

al_dcdemo Posted 27 Mar. as Analysis on NZD/USD, Target: 0.6775, Date: 1st of May, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Daily Chart #NZD/USD #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Broadening Formation #Dovish Rbnz #Neutral Net Positioning #Broad Trading Range
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
The pair bottomed in August 2015 and has since been contained in a broad trading range between 0.60 and 0.70. It has spent most of the time in the …
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al_dcdemo 11 Apr.

UPDATE 5: Major currencies opened the week with small gaps, mostly against the U.S. dollar, and then went pretty much sideways from there. Chinese CPI and PPI reports came in largely as expected. Yen did make a new marginal high (USD/JPY low) but then consolidated as well. U.S. Q1 earnings season starts after today's market close, so a bit of position squaring in risk sensitive pairs would not be that unexpected.

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al_dcdemo 13 Apr.

UPDATE 6: While commodity currencies already had a great few days, low-yielders such as euro, yen and franc remained supported up until today. Positive risk sentiment finally impacted them as well while the dollar strengthened across the board. U.S. (Core) Retail Sales and (Core) PPI reports and especially BOC meeting later in the day are definitely factors behind some of the position adjustments, particularly in commodity pairs which have become a bit extended, technically.

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al_dcdemo 15 Apr.

UPDATE 7: Better than expected data from China overnight has in part been the driver of Kiwi strength today as it reversed all yesterday's losses and some before pulling back in the last couple of hours. My thinking was that the pair would reverse lower after running stops above 0.69 but it remains well supported in the dips and continuation higher seems more likely at this point.

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al_dcdemo 24 Apr.

UPDATE 8: First quarter turmoil seems like a distant memory now as commodities and equity indices turned up. Central banks (ECB, BOJ, PBOC, RBNZ, ...) that acted or didn't act (Fed) earlier in the year are claiming some of the credit for these positive developments but the main driver seems to be recovering oil. U.S. dollar indeed strengthened across the board last week but another theme was yen weakness and appreciation of risk sensitive currency pairs.

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al_dcdemo 25 Apr.

UPDATE 9: With the exceptions of the pound and the Canadian dollar, which were the strongest currencies last week, the U.S. dollar opened with a small gap higher against major currencies. Interesting and potentially lively week ahead features Fed, BOJ and RBNZ meetings, U.S., E.U., U.K. and Canadian GDP reports, Australian quarterly inflation report and several central bank speakers.

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NZD/USD to revisit range bottom in March

al_dcdemo Posted 28 Feb. as Analysis on NZD/USD, Target: 0.6375, Date: 1st of April, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Daily Chart #NZD/USD #Indecision #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Dovish Rbnz #Neutral Net Positioning #Broad Trading Range
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
The pair bottomed in August 2015 and has since been contained in a broad trading range between 0.60 and 0.70. It has spent most of the time in the …
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al_dcdemo 10 Mar.

UPDATE 5: In an (un)surprising move, RBNZ cut the official cash rate to 2.25% from 2.50% and hinted on additional cuts which will depend on data. Reasons for the cut are weak global growth outlook, high exchange rate and declining inflation expectations. Technically, the bank prevented Kiwi from rising above October and December highs, at least for now. After 150 pip fall, the pair is stalling ahead of confluence of 50, 100 and 200 DMA. 0.65 - 0.6550 is the next stronger support band to watch.

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al_dcdemo 19 Mar.

UPDATE 6: Surprisingly dovish FOMC spurred a U.S. dollar sell-off in which commodity currencies benefited the most. Kiwi so far gained about two cents. It also had a positive effect on U.S. stocks with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones indices turning positive on the year. Given that the next candidate meeting for raising rates is not before June and even raising then is under question, the current U.S. dollar pullback is set to continue.

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al_dcdemo 25 Mar.

UPDATE 7: Good Friday and Easter Monday holidays will make this weekend four days long instead of usual two days. Even though U.S. will resume trading on Monday, full participation is not expected until Tuesday. We've already been witnessing low liquidity and volatility. Both shall remain on low levels during this period, though there's always a possibility of a sharp move in such conditions.

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al_dcdemo 30 Mar.

UPDATE 8: Remarks in the speech by the Fed governor Janet Yellen sparked a dollar sell-off across the board. Recent hawkish tones by a number of Fed speakers had markets expecting something a bit less dovish than the latest FOMC statement. The winner of the day was the Kiwi, which rose 80 pips before the event and about 70 pips afterwards. We can expect some buy stops to be triggered at and above 0.69 but probably plenty of new supply into 0.70.

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al_dcdemo 31 Mar.

UPDATE 9: Tomorrow is NFP day and, following recent dovish turn by the Fed, I would expect more U.S. dollar losses on a weaker than expected report than gains on better than expected report. If I'd have to guess, I'd say we would get overall slightly better than expected report. Price action would depend on the pair, but would probably involve taking out stops on both sides with the dollar ending up near unchanged on the day.

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NZD/USD to revisit bottom of the range

al_dcdemo Posted 31 Jan. as Analysis on NZD/USD, Target: 0.6275, Date: 1st of March, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Daily Chart #Demand #NZD/USD #Trading Range #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Dovish Rbnz #Neutral Net Positioning
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
The pair bottomed in August 2015 and has since been contained in a broad trading range between 0.60 and 0.70. It has spent most of the time in the u…
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al_dcdemo 9 Feb.

UPDATE 3: Quiet start to the week turned into carnage soon after European session got underway, led by stock market falls. The selling continued in North American session and, after a small consolidation, overnight. The greatest beneficiary of safe haven flows has unsurprisingly been the yen, while the euro and the franc have also benefited. Gold rose to the highest in eight months. Cable and commodity currencies lost to various degrees, not least as a consequence of cross pair selling.

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al_dcdemo 12 Feb.

UPDATE 4: Mostly owing to U.S. dollar weakness, Kiwi proved to be impressively resilient amid market turmoil. It is currently down on the week only against the lowest of low yielders: euro, yen and franc. Declining 2014 - 2015 trendline, reinforced by the broken September - December trendline and 200 DMA, remains the resistance level to watch. If it gives way, 0.69 - 0.70 will come into focus. 50 and 100 DMA are the immediate support levels ahead of 0.65 - 0.6550.

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al_dcdemo 18 Feb.

UPDATE 5: FOMC Meeting Minutes, which were released yesterday evening, didn't provide us with anything new. Officials did acknowledge increased downside risks to inflation outlook stemming mostly from USD strength and oil weakness but didn't back away from rate hikes. Reaction to the release was muted. Price recorded a couple of small whipsaws before returning to what it was doing before - a pattern that is quite prevalent with these releases.

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al_dcdemo 20 Feb.

UPDATE 6: World stock and commodity markets stabilized somewhat along with an overall improvement in risk sentiment. Volatility in major currency pairs fell, particularly in commodity-linked ones. Kiwi ended the week not very far from the opening levels with a similarly unimpressive weekly range - barely over 100 pips. This is most likely just a temporary calm as global macroeconomic landscape remains very much the same.

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al_dcdemo 27 Feb.

UPDATE 7: Friday provided everything that dollar bulls want. Mostly better than expected readings on growth, inflation, income, spending and sentiment were enough to send the dollar higher against most major currencies and showed that March hike cannot be ruled out. Kiwi lost almost 100 pips on the day with the daily range more than 150 pips. It posted outside down day which may lead to more losses in the days ahead.

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