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Slow Recovery Underway in NZD/USD

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Mar. as Analysis on NZD/USD, Target: 0.7339 , Date: 1 von May, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #NZD #USD #Rally #NZD/USD #Us Dollar #Kiwi #Recovery #Uptrend #Momentum
A slow recovery is underway in the Kiwi. As we can see from our first chart below, prices bottomed out in August of last year and since then we’ve been going up slowly.
Recently that trend hit a small bump in road as general risk aversion across all markets led to NZD selling. The Kiwi gets sold because it’s a risk-on currency, people hold it for carry and unwind these trades during bad times.
Nonetheless as we can see on the second daily chart below, the trend seems to be back up! Prices only…
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Kiwi in Bullish Trend

fxsurprise8 Posted 28 Feb. as Analysis on NZD/USD, Target: 0.7471, Date: 3 von April, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #NZD #USD #Bullish #NZD/USD #Us Dollar #Moving Average #Average True Range #50 Ema #25 Ema
The Kiwi has entered a bullish trend. On our first chart below we see that the 25 day (in blue) and 50 day (in red) exponential moving averages are trending higher, with the 25 above the 50 EMA. This indicates that a bullish trend has commenced in this currency pair.
But just how far can this rally go? The 20 month Average True Range is currently at 370 pips. But of course this is the high to low range, not the open to close range we need to estimate a target.
I’ll be placing my forecast just be…
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AUD/NZD Still Deep in Range Mode

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Dec. as Analysis on AUD/NZD, Target: 1.0397, Date: 1 von February, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD #NZD #Volatility #AUD/NZD #Aussie #Kiwi #Australian Dollar #Range Box #Congestion
The AUD/NZD is naturally a mean reverting pair due to the closely linked economies of Australia and New Zealand. But this has been the case even more in the past few years as the pair has repeatedly failed to trend. On the weekly chart below we see that any attempt to get something going was shut down, with rallies being sold into and sell-off being bought.
Take a look at the hourly chart below. The pair opened December at 1.0437 and is currently trading at 1.0386, not even 50 pips lower. This s…
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fxsurprise8 31 Jan.

The range-bound behavior in this pair continues! We opened January at 1.0375 and we're currently quoted at 1.0393, not even 20 pips higher.

The highest high during this month has been at 1.0570 while the lowest low was at 1.0324. A total monthly range of only 246 pups or just above 2 percent.

This is a very small amount for a pair comprised of two major currencies. Hopefully this trend continues into the end of the contest. We now have the long-term charts, the daily charts and the hourly charts all pointing flat.

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fxsurprise8 1 Feb.

On the last day of the contest the AUD/NZD inched away from my forecast. Prices rallied to a high of 1.0433 at one point, but likely we got a pullback as we got closer to the 12:00 mark.

In the end the pair 'closed' the contest period at 1.04143, only 17.3 pips away from my forecasted price. In percentage terms this is 0.1375%.

The short version is the AUD/NZD behaved exactly as expected, continuing in the vein of range-bound trading that has been its mark for years. In my last update I will do a more detailed review of this month's trading, along with a chart to back up my analysis.

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fxsurprise8 2 Feb.

Time for a final update. The two lines in picture above show the yearly open at 1.0375 and the contest period 'close' at 1.04143. The range during January is marked with a rectangle on chart.

The two obvious conclusions are one, the pair continued to range this month. You can't see a difference in the price action during January compared to the prior months.

The second conclusion is that prices didn't move much. The price difference between January 1st and the contest end on February 1st was only 39 pips, not even half a percent. Overall everything went according to the plan outlined above.

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Sveetlana 2 Feb.

very interesting article! good gob!)

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Kiwi Could be Bottoming Out

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Dec. as Analysis on NZD/USD, Target: 0.7471, Date: 1 von February, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #NZD #USD #NZD/USD #Us Dollar #Bottom #Kiwi #Momentum #Stochastic #Average True Range
The New Zealand Dollar could be bottoming out. First let’s take a look at the daily chart. Here we see that the Stochastic Oscillator dipped below the 20 oversold level three bars ago. We’re now rallying from these lows and we closed back above 20, indicating a bullish condition.
Our second chart below shows that the momentum during the past few days has been strongly up, with little to no retracement. This confirms what the longer-term charts are saying.
I’ll be placing my target just below t…
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New Zealand Dollar to Rally Further

fxsurprise8 Posted 30 Nov. as Analysis on NZD/USD, Target: 0.7439, Date: 2 von January, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #NZD #USD #Trendline #Rally #NZD/USD #Us Dollar #Kiwi #Uptrend #New Zealand Dollar
The New Zealand Dollar is having a good year. The currency is up by 259 pips against the U.S. Dollar since January 1st. On our first chart below we see that after bottoming out in the middle of last year, it’s been a slow but steady grind higher.
This is confirmed further by looking at lower timeframe chart. Below we see the same momentum higher on the 4 Hour chart. I expect this to continue into year-end. The post-election USD rally seems to be exhausting itself and this should benefit my long …
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TInna 1 Dec.

very well!

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AUD/NZD to Reverse at Support

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Aug. as Analysis on AUD/NZD, Target: 1.0741, Date: 3 von October, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD #NZD #Support #AUD/NZD #Aussie #Kiwi #Reversal Pattern #Australian Dollar #New Zealand Dollar
The AUD/NZD is nearing important support, this year's low for the pair at 1.0309. We're now quoted at 1.0379 after trading as low as 1.0349 just few hours earlier.
The second reason why I'm betting on a reversal rally here is ho oversold the AUD/NZD is right now. Note the Stochastic on the 4 Hour chart is below 20, signalling oversold territory. My target is 1.0741, right below this summer's highs in this pair. I think a 400 pips rally is about the max the AUD/NZD can do in one month.
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rashadali 9 Sep.

good job )

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Large Gains for the Kiwi

fxsurprise8 Posted 30 Apr. as Analysis on NZD/USD, Target: 0.7381, Date: 1 von June, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #NZD #NZD/USD #Us Dollar #Kiwi #Recovery #New Zealand #Bounce #New Zealand Dollar
The NZD/USD spent most of last year in the dulldrums. The currency fell from 0.7800 to a low of 0.6071 before retracing somewhat. We are currently quoted at 0.6980.
But there are signs that a recovery is under way. On the chart below we can see that the NZD/USD has just cleared an important resistance area around 0.6900. After two-three false breaks, we're finally leaving this resistance behind.
I'm placing my bet on 0.7381, this is around 400 pips away from the current price. The average monthl…
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wisdom_consultant 25 May

good analyses

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A Neighborly Tie

fxsurprise8 Posted 29 Feb. as Analysis on AUD/NZD, Target: 1.0819, Date: 1 von April, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #NZD #AUD/NZD #Aussie #Kiwi
The AUD/NZD has spent the last few months forming an ever narrower range. On the chart below we can see that prices have formed a triangle pattern.
While this formation will eventually result in a breakout, we're not there yet. On a lower time-frame we can see that the pair remains locked in this range, with moves higher followed by moves lower.
Neither the trend on the higher TF nor the momentum on the lower TF suggest anything but more of the same. Thus I'm betting on 1.0819, close to the curr…
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The Range in AUD/NZD to Continue

fxsurprise8 Posted 30 Nov. as Analysis on AUD/NZD, Target: 1.0821, Date: 2 von January, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD #NZD #Australia #AUD/NZD #New Zealand
For the past year, the AND/NZD has traded in a small 8 percent range between 1.0500 and 1.1300. In November, Aussie weakness pushed prices away from the 1.13 mark and the pair tumbled close to 500 pips.
Looking back on the monthly chart, usually after periods of massive selling in the pair prices stabilized the next month. For an example of this, take a look at July 2013 and before that April 2013. The losses of May and July 2011 were also followed by consolidation period. I expect this pattern …
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AUD/NZD to Remain Below 1.1300

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Oct. as Analysis on AUD/NZD, Target: 1.1284, Date: 1 von December, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD #NZD #AUD/NZD #Aussie
The AUD/NZD had an odd year. The pair first fell 700 pips to 1.0491, only to rally over 800 pips to a high of 1.1295. We are currently trading at 1.1284, the same price as July of 2013. Despite all the turmoil, the interlinked Australian and New Zealand economies eventually converged and the pair followed suit. As can be seen from the monthly chart below, the AUD/NZD revolved around 1.1200 for the entire last year.
With prices now trading close to the important 1.1300 resistance, I expect the li…
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