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Multiple Studies Says EUR/SEK to Stay Near Longterm Average

fxsurprise8 投稿日: 2017年05月31日。分析予想通貨ペア:EUR/SEK, 予想レート: 9.7704, 予想日: 3日7月, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Euro #Sweden #200 Sma #Moving Average #EUR/SEK #Fibonacci Level #Mean Reversion #Swedish Krona #2008 Crisis
This is one of those pictures that's worth a thousand words. The chart below shows mutiple studies confirming my view that the EUR/SEK will stay near its long-term average. First we have the 200 month moving average in blue. It's currently at 9.277, only 5 percent away from the current market price. This means that the current price is just a few days worth of trading away from its average during the past 16 years.
If that doesn't show you the state of this currency pair, there's more! Notice th…
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Singapore Dollar Near Long-Term Average

fxsurprise8 投稿日: 2017年05月31日。分析予想通貨ペア:USD/SGD, 予想レート: 1.3832, 予想日: 3日7月, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #SGD #USD #USD/SGD #50 Retracement #Singapore Dollar #Moving Average #Range Bound #Fibo Retracement #365 Moving Average
The Singapore Dollar is trading near its long-term moving average. On the chart below we can see two things, a Fibonacci retracement tool spanning the most recent swing high and low on the daily chart and a 365 period moving average.
The Fibonacci tool shows us that we're currently trading in between the 50 and 61% retracement, very close to the middle ground of the move during the past 12 months. Two, the 365 MA (in blue) is right now at 1.3858, only 26 pips away from the current price for USD/…
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Kiwi in Bullish Trend

fxsurprise8 投稿日: 2017年02月28日。分析予想通貨ペア:NZD/USD, 予想レート: 0.7471, 予想日: 3日4月, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #NZD #USD #Bullish #NZD/USD #Us Dollar #Moving Average #Average True Range #50 Ema #25 Ema
The Kiwi has entered a bullish trend. On our first chart below we see that the 25 day (in blue) and 50 day (in red) exponential moving averages are trending higher, with the 25 above the 50 EMA. This indicates that a bullish trend has commenced in this currency pair.
But just how far can this rally go? The 20 month Average True Range is currently at 370 pips. But of course this is the high to low range, not the open to close range we need to estimate a target.
I’ll be placing my forecast just be…
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More of the Same for EUR/GBP

fxsurprise8 投稿日: 2017年02月28日。分析予想通貨ペア:EUR/GBP, 予想レート: 0.8541, 予想日: 3日4月, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #GBP #EUR #Euro #EUR/GBP #European Union #Pound #Moving Average #Range Bound #Range Box #Single Currency
I expect more of the same in the EUR/GBP currency pair. In the past year Cable lost a lot of ground against the Euro, mainly due to Brexit. But as markets discount the event entirely, the pair has stabilized somewhat.
Look at the daily chart above. After an initial bump to 0.9300 in October, prices fell back to the 0.8500 range, where we've been trading since around August of 2016. The blue line on the chart above is the 100-day moving average.
Notice how price started to hug since November 2016…
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fxsurprise8 2017年03月29日

UPDATE 2:Time for a second update. Since my previous post the EUR/GBP traded in a very large range of 117 pips. This is a lot for two days of trading in this particular currency pair.

During this time a high of 0.8734 was hit, as well as a low of 0.8617. Nonetheless, ultimately the pair closed today at 0.8656, only 8 pips above the price noted in the update above.

With my target at 0.8541 I will need some Pound strength in the last few days of the contest to bring me closed to my target. Hopefully the official beginning of Brexit will provide some market clarity and allow for some GBP gains.

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fxsurprise8 2017年03月30日

UPDATE 3: The EUR/GBP is now quoted at 0.8565, only 21 pips away from my forecasted price of 0.8541.

Today we saw large losses in the Euro across the board and this translated into this pair as well. We opened the day at 0.8656 and steadily fell with only 1 green bar since the Europe open.

Eventually we closed the day near the current market price of 0.8565. Now a top position for my forecast looks doable as the pair is back to its range-bound movement. Wish me luck!

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fxsurprise8 2017年03月31日

UPDATE 4: Not good news to report in this update! The pair overshoot my target as the GBP strength continues across the board.

We are now quoted at 0.8492, exactly 49 pips away from my forecasted price at 0.8541. Still I have hope that we'll see the pair head back soon.

We've had 3 large red candles in this pair so far, this is unusual in a mean-reverting pair like the EUR/GBP. With only half a trading day left of the contest (on Monday) anything is possible!

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fxsurprise8 2017年04月01日

UPDATE 5: Time for another update and this time I have a chart! Let's take a look at how this month played out so far.

We opened at 0.8533 (shown by vertical line in the picture above. From here we rallied all the way to a high of 0.8786. This was followed by heavy selling that brought us back down to Earth.

This is typical behavior for mean-reverting pairs like the EUR/GBP. We closed on Friday at 0.8485, only 56 pips below my forecasted price!

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fxsurprise8 2017年04月02日

UPDATE 6: After closing near the lows on Friday, this Sunday morning we're seeing a general recovery in all EUR pairs. The gains are not large but they're sizable for this time of day, which tends to be a bit slower.

In the EUR/GBP we gapped open at 0.8469 and continued to slowly drift up to a high of 0.8508. We are currently quoted just slightly below these highs at 0.8505.

This is only 36 pips away from my forecasted price, meaning I have a real shot at a good prize position this month.

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