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Slow Recovery Underway in NZD/USD

fxsurprise8 Przesłano 31 Mar jako Analiza NZD/USD, Cel: 0.7339 , Data: 1 z Maj, 12:00 GMT  w #Technical analysis #NZD #USD #Rally #NZD/USD #Us Dollar #Kiwi #Recovery #Uptrend #Momentum
A slow recovery is underway in the Kiwi. As we can see from our first chart below, prices bottomed out in August of last year and since then we’ve been going up slowly.
Recently that trend hit a small bump in road as general risk aversion across all markets led to NZD selling. The Kiwi gets sold because it’s a risk-on currency, people hold it for carry and unwind these trades during bad times.
Nonetheless as we can see on the second daily chart below, the trend seems to be back up! Prices only…
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Kiwi Could be Bottoming Out

fxsurprise8 Przesłano 31 Gru jako Analiza NZD/USD, Cel: 0.7471, Data: 1 z Luty, 12:00 GMT  w #Technical analysis #NZD #USD #NZD/USD #Us Dollar #Bottom #Kiwi #Momentum #Stochastic #Average True Range
The New Zealand Dollar could be bottoming out. First let’s take a look at the daily chart. Here we see that the Stochastic Oscillator dipped below the 20 oversold level three bars ago. We’re now rallying from these lows and we closed back above 20, indicating a bullish condition.
Our second chart below shows that the momentum during the past few days has been strongly up, with little to no retracement. This confirms what the longer-term charts are saying.
I’ll be placing my target just below t…
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EUR/USD Bounces Off Long-Term Support

fxsurprise8 Przesłano 30 Lis jako Analiza EUR/USD, Cel: 1.0596, Data: 2 z Styczeń, 12:00 GMT  w #Technical analysis #Euro #Support #EUR/USD #Eurozone #Long Term #Us Dollar #Momentum #Support Levels #Single Currency
I think the losses for the Euro are coming to an end. Our first chart below shows reason number one. The pair recently bounced off 1.0522. This is a long-term support level that held up prices for the past 18 months. Not far from here we find another level, the 1.0462 swing low. This is a multi-year for the Euro. The last time the single currency traded below here was all the way back in 2003.
On our second chart we see a glimpse of the trading on the lower time-frame. Notice how during the past…
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fxsurprise8 28 Gru

Things are not going exactly as planned in the EUR/USD. While the pair managed to break the 1.0500 handle, it hasn't made much headway below the figure.

We spent the last two weeks of December swinging between 1.0400 and 1.0500. We are currently quoted at 1.0404.

This is certainly no consolation for my forecast, which remains off by almost 2 percent. But the end of the contest is still a good time away, so let's hope we bounce back on year-end flows.

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fxsurprise8 31 Gru

Things are looking up for my forecast! During the past few days the EUR/USD rallied over 120 pips to close the year at 1.0525. This is around 70 pips away from my forecast. Now this doesn't mean the contest is over, we still have few more days left until January 2nd.

There is still hope that mean reversion will continue to be a force here and push us higher still. We're coming up from oversold levels, like I noted in my original forecast. Plus the bounce at support lends more credence to the bounce story.

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More Losses for the USD/JPY

fxsurprise8 Przesłano 30 Kwi jako Analiza USD/JPY, Cel: 102.11, Data: 1 z Czerwiec, 12:00 GMT  w #Technical analysis #JPY #Trend #USD/JPY #Price Action #Japanese Yen #Momentum #Downtrend #Doji
Last month we saw a doji pattern in the USD/JPY. This is usually an indecision pattern. But in this case the Doji has been followed by a large red bar. This breaks the stalemate and potentially signals that more losses are to come.
On the lower 4 hour timefame we can see that the pair has fallen by over 500 pips in the last two days alone. So not only do we have the medium-term trend heading down but so is the momentum.
The average monthly range for the USD/JPY is 479 pips but this of course is …
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Further Trend Extension for Cable

fxsurprise8 Przesłano 30 Kwi jako Analiza GBP/USD, Cel: 1.4991, Data: 1 z Czerwiec, 12:00 GMT  w #Technical analysis #GBP #GBP/USD #Trend #Cable #Us Dollar #Trend Analysis #Momentum #Trend Lines
I except the current bullish trend for Cable to continue. We show this trend on the 4 Hour chart below. Notice the nice sequence of higher highs and higher lows.
But why am I forecasting 1.4991? Well on the second picture below we see that the Pound has just completed an inverse Head and Shoulders pattern. I wrote about this pattern in my TA post for April but back then it wasn't completed yet.
To arrive at the target for this pattern we take the lowest low to the shoulder, in our case 679 pips.…
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fxsurprise8 25 Maj

So far so good. The trend is still up and Cable is currently quoted at 1.4702.

This is still far away from my 1.4991 target. But there's still over a week to go and the Pound is a volatile pair, even more so with the coming Brexit vote.

We're just one poll away from a nice continuation rally. A breakout above this month's high at 1.4768 should help my case.

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fxsurprise8 26 Maj

Not much progress in Cable today. The pair closed down by 28 pips. Intra-day a high of 1.4739 was hit followed by prolonged selling. We closed at 1.4668.

There is some resistance in the area around 1.4740-1.4770. As noted in my previous comment, the 1.4768 level is this month's high in this pair.

A 3-day weekend is coming up in the States. Market participants may be apprehensive of taking on risk ahead of the long weekend. We may have to wait for Monday or Tuesday to see real progress toward 1.4800 and above.

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More Gains for the Euro

fxsurprise8 Przesłano 30 Kwi jako Analiza EUR/USD, Cel: 1.1706, Data: 1 z Czerwiec, 12:00 GMT  w #Technical analysis #USD #Euro #Breakout #EUR/USD #Rally #Us Dollar #Momentum #Single Currency #Common Currency
The Euro had a okay but not great April. The pair rallied from 1.1377 to close the month at 1.1445. But that doesn't tell us the whole picture. On the chart below the daily trend is more clearly visible. Even more important, the EUR/USD closed Friday 94 pips in the green, showing that it has both trend and momentum on its side.
But just how far will this rally take us? I think the pair will have no problem breaking past the 1.1400-1.1500 resistance barrier. The only potential stopping point I'm …
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