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CAD/CHF Range Boxing

Daytrader21 投稿日: 2015年07月15日。分析予想通貨ペア:CAD/CHF, 予想レート: 0.7293, 予想日: 1日9月, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #CAD/CHF #Psychological Number #Momentum #Range Box
We can see that for the most part cross pairs like CAD/CHF have the tendencies to move in consolidation box, which i call range box effect. Right now we're moving inside one of those range zone between 0.7500 round number and psychological number which is also the bottom of the current box and 0.7700 resistance and top of the box.
Major Levels to watch:
  • 0.7500 Big round number and psychological number and also support level.
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Daytrader21 2015年08月15日

Update 5: As expected we continued to push lower and 0.7500 big round number provided a good resistance. Since we're trading well below that key figure we should expect further downside movement, however we need a close below 0.7400 for more downside pressure.

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Daytrader21 2015年08月28日

Update 6: Even though we broke hard below key support 0.7330 level we're back up as we erased the last week sell off. Next week expect a retest of 0.7330 before any downside move to be seen

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Daytrader21 2015年08月31日

Update 7: Since Mondays are typically quiet days the current range established between 0.7330 previous week high and resistance level, and the support round number 0.7200 should hold. We're currently just 28 pips away from my forecast target of 0.7293. In the short term it can go both ways however most likely the price pattern should retest previous swing high before to go down.

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Daytrader21 2015年09月01日

Final Update: As per my previous update even though we did more than just to retest previous week's high at 0.7330, as we broke above it triggering the stops above and as expected this move didn't had strength as we moved back inside the range. The 0.7293 was also the middle of the current range zone and price gravitated towards that figure. This is quite an impressive forecast as it has 0% deviation.

My Forecast: 0.7293
Market Close at 12:00 GMT 1st of September: 0.7293
Deviation: 0% Deviation.

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foreignexchange 2015年09月01日

Congratulation DT21 : )

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Cable Fractal Map. Trade Explanation

Daytrader21 投稿日: 2015年06月25日  in #Trader's blog #GBP/USD #Cable #Fibonacci Retracement #Seasonality #Momentum #Fractal
In today's blog post I want to take the time and talk about my recent trade which was long GBP/USD. This trade was based on a market model or you can call it a fractal pattern (see Figure 1) that cable has been following since the start of the sell off from 2014 highs. Now, even though I got out of this trade relative fast the upside momentum should prevail if we take in consideration the seasonality cycles of GBP/USD which has the tendencies to strengthen during the summer time period and post …
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Prepearing the Week Ahead

Daytrader21 投稿日: 2015年06月08日  in #Trader's blog #Us Dollar #Fundamental Analysis Contest #Momentum #Greek Debt

This week will be dominant again by the Greek debt talks, which so far has been very limited risk effect on the markets. Also we should expect based on the last week NFP figure the dollar momentum to continue however if we look at price action we can tell that there is more likely the market will stay in a range so at this point it may be the best to trade both side of the market.
Tomorrow we should pay attention to the BOE inflation report and EU zone GDP which have been better than expected f…
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USD/CAD - Stop Hunting

Daytrader21 投稿日: 2015年06月06日  in #Trader's blog #USD/CAD #Seasonality #Momentum #Stop Hunting #London Session #New York Session
Even thought USD/CAD PA is suggesting that we may be developing a swing high in place which is also supported by the seasonality cycle, you can read more about the seasonality tendencies of USD/CAD here: Jun FX Seasonal Pattern
USD/CAD has a strong pattern to sell of during the month of Jun, weakness that caries on all the way through July where we establish a major bottom. However despite this I took a long trade based on the short term PA, because I had the momentum in my favor. Also the timin…
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GBPNZD +170 Pips Profit

Daytrader21 投稿日: 2015年06月05日  in #Trader's blog #Bullish #Drawdown #GBP/NZD #Momentum
So far my best trade was going long GBP/NZD and even though the trend was well mature and one may think it was oversold I still saw the possibility of another marginal new high above Monday's high near the 2.1600 level. The momentum was still strong and the pattern was there for the upward trend to continue so I give it a shoot. My entry was based on the minor support level from 1h intraday chart.
Before this trade I was in a 30% DD but with this trade I've managed to bring my account back in pr…
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EUR/AUD Consolidation mode

Daytrader21 投稿日: 2015年05月15日。分析予想通貨ペア:EUR/AUD, 予想レート: 1.3786, 予想日: 1日7月, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Breakout #Consolidation #Liquidity #EUR/AUD #Range #Momentum
Over the last year EUR/AUD has been moving from large ranging zones to small ranging zones, moving back and forth between this consolidation phases. Right now the current established range is between 1.4400 resistance level and 1.4000 big round number and psychological number. Taking in consideration that we're approaching the summer time whee liquidity usually is low and thus the activity level is very low we should expect the market to move in tight range zones and this is…
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Daytrader21 2015年05月16日

Update 1: The market is still inside a wide range and has resistance at 1.4350 and support stands at big round number 1.4000. For the next week we should see the market once again trying to retest the low.

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Daytrader21 2015年05月22日

Update 2: We're still consolidating between 1.3900 support zone and 1.4350 resistance level which basically form a range trading box. We should see further consolidation into next week between this 2 extreme levels. Another level we should keep an eye on is the middle of the box which comes at 1.4150

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USD/JPY Neverending Consolidation

Daytrader21 投稿日: 2015年05月14日。分析予想通貨ペア:USD/JPY, 予想レート: 116.8400, 予想日: 1日7月, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USD/JPY #Bullish #Consolidation #Range #Momentum #Accumulation
USD/JPY has been unable to sustain any gains during this year and we have moved in a big range for the most part of the year. Even though we managed to make a marginal new high above 122.00 the momentum slowed down and we're back inside the range. Current range extends from the 122.00 resistance level all the way down to 116.00 level (see Figure 1) where we have a strong support and where I'm expecting price to hold and revers to resume to bigger bullish trend we're in. We're in a …
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Daytrader21 2015年05月16日

Update 1: USD/JPY has had another rejection of the 120.00 big round number and current resistance level. However in order for the downside momentum to really build up we need a break of 118.50. Until than we should expet more range bound activity.

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Daytrader21 2015年05月22日

Update 2: The market seems to deviate from my forecast and if we are indeed going to break the current high at 122.00 round number the bullish trend may resume without to retest the 166.00 support level

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Gold Down-Channel

Daytrader21 更新日: 2015年01月26日  in #Trader's blog #Inflation #Gold #Snb #Deflation #Channel #Momentum #Downtrend #Seasonality Pattern

Last time I was speaking about Gold it was trading near an important inflection point, see more here: Gold Inflection Point
Even thought I was drawing the point that the probability suggest we should continue lower, I have also been advice if we broke the trend-line that connects the 2012 highs we should take the breakout with a long position. The initial breakout lack momentum but only after SNB decision to abandon the 1.2000 EUR/CHF floor, Gold started to gain momentum.
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SalviLeana 2015年01月26日

Great job :)

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Daytrader21 2015年01月26日

SalviLeana Merci bien :)

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Olga18375 2015年01月31日

Good luck!!!

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AUD/NZD Multi-Decade Support Level (part 5)

Daytrader21 投稿日: 2014年12月27日。分析予想通貨ペア:AUD/NZD, 予想レート: 1.0638, 予想日: 2日2月, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD/NZD #Elliott Wave #Retracement #Momentum #Multi Decade Support
AUD/NZD is approaching a multi-decade support level at 1.0400 which I think will provide some good trading opportunities. In Figure 1 you can see the monthly chart and the strong sell of from the past few months. Since April 2013 after we broke the psychological level of 1.2100 big round number the downward momentum accelerate and we barely see any kind of retracement. But since we hit the 1.0500 level market has started to bottom and move inside some trading boxes, on top of each other. However…
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Daytrader21 2015年01月24日

Update 2: After making a new low at 1.0350 the momentum has started to pick up and we're now in the process of developing the first wave A, correcting the entire structure that started from 1.3780 sell off. The five wave sequence looks completed. For next week we have support at 1.0500 big round number

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Daytrader21 2015年01月28日

Update 3: As expect 1.0500 big round number has provided a good support and right now we're heading for a retest of 1.0755 resistance level. For now the market should be contained inside this two levels. Based on Elliott wave we are forming a flat so we could expect further consolidation

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WallStreetBlog 2015年02月01日

Thanks!!!

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Daytrader21 2015年02月01日

Update 4: As per my last update we indeed retested previous resistance level and gone beyond that all the way up towards next round number 1.0800, where we had a supply zone. From there we indeed reacted and come back lower towards 1.0600. Right now we're in a much more complex price structure and it may be the case we're doing a double zig-zag pattern, see figure.

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Metal_Mind 2015年02月01日

This is a volatile pair so you have all chances to meet your target.Good luck

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AUD/JPY Upward Channel Ready to Break Down

Daytrader21 投稿日: 2014年10月12日。分析予想通貨ペア:AUD/JPY, 予想レート: 91.1400, 予想日: 1日12月, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD/JPY #Pivot Point #Elliott Wave #Upward Channel #Momentum
It seems like AUD/JPY has been turning to the downside once we got in place the 98.50 swing high. On the weekly chart (see Figure 1) we can see the whole price structure which shows that since beginning of the year we have moved within an upward channel. But we lack momentum inside this upward channel that's one of the main reason why the up move was unsustained and now we're turning lower. Ultimately I'm expecting AUD/JPY to challenge again the 88.00 big pivot point.
Figure 1: AU
…
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VictoriaVika 2014年10月12日

Happy Sunday and best wishes for next week :)

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Daytrader21 2014年10月19日

Update 1: This past week we had first attempt to break the channel but we had a reaction. However this doesn't change the current bearish sentiment and as long as we stay below 95.00 level we should expect further downside. Next week the major support is 91.72 previous swing low which i'm expecting to be challenged.

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