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EUR/SEK Stays in Range All of 2017

fxsurprise8 Publié 30 sep comme Analyse sur EUR/SEK, Cible: 9.6228, Date: 1 de novembre, 12:00 GMT  dans #Technical analysis #EUR #SEK #Euro #European Union #Sweden #EUR/SEK #Range Trading #Mean Reversion #Swedish Krona
The EUR/SEK is having another ranging year. The pair opened 2017 around the 9.57 handle is now quoted at 9.61, a percentage change of less then half of 1%.
But going back in time doesn't change the picture (see below). Here too we're seeing this currency pair locked in a range most of the time too. In fact except for a brief excursion above the 10 round figure during the US election last year, the EUR/SEK stayed remarkably flat.
The larger range spanned from 9.11 to 9.80, or around 7 percent. Th…
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EUR/GBP Returns to the Mean

fxsurprise8 Publié 30 sep comme Analyse sur EUR/GBP, Cible: 0.8818, Date: 1 de novembre, 12:00 GMT  dans #Technical analysis #GBP #United Kingdom #Euro #EUR/GBP #European Union #Pound #Mean Reversion #Brexit #Negotiations
The EUR/GBP is slowly returning to the mean. In August the pair dropped from a high of 0.9261 to close the month off at 0.8815. After the large gains during the past few months the pair is finally losing some ground.
But as can see on our next chart, the long-term trend on the weekly chart is still very bullish. These two conflicting trends as well as the congestion area the pair is in right now (see rectangle on chart one) should keep prices in range. Thus I'm betting on more range for the EUR/…
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Range-bound Moves Persist in EUR/SEK

fxsurprise8 Publié 31 aou comme Analyse sur EUR/SEK, Cible: 9.4538, Date: 2 de octobre, 12:00 GMT  dans #Technical analysis #EUR #SEK #Euro #European Union #Sweden #EUR/SEK #Mean Reversion #Range Box #Swedish Krona
The smaller range-bound moves persist in the EUR/SEK. The pair opened March around the 9.55 handle and is currently trading at 9.4533, a percentage change of just over 1 percent. The chart also demonstrate a classic V-shaped reversal pattern.
Our second chart below also shows this V-shaped pattern but on much bigger timescale, the weekly chart. Here too we're seeing the EUR/SEK range-bound behavior.
This currency pair keeps being brought back to the 9.50 area, no matter how much it tries to stra…
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Swedish Krona Stays Flat in July

fxsurprise8 Publié 31 juillet comme Analyse sur EUR/SEK, Cible: 9.5537, Date: 1 de septembre, 12:00 GMT  dans #Technical analysis #4H Chart #Euro #Sweden #EUR/SEK #Range Bound #Mean Reversion #Swedish Krona
The Swedish Krona stayed mostly flat during July. The pair opened the month at 9.62 and closed it at 9.55. In percentage terms this is only 0.73%.
The chart above shows that this range narrowed further during the second part of the month. During this time-period the EUR/SEK moved between a low of 9.50 and a high of 9.62. But most of the time was spend in the middle of this range doing nothing.
On the longterm weekly chart above we see that the current smaller 4h range in right in the middle. In …
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EUR/GBP Overbought on Larger Timeframes

fxsurprise8 Publié 31 juillet comme Analyse sur EUR/GBP, Cible: 0.8961, Date: 1 de septembre, 12:00 GMT  dans #Technical analysis #GBP #Euro #EUR/GBP #Pound #Overbought #Stochastic Indicator #Range Bound #Range Trading #Mean Reversion
The EUR/GBP is overbought on the larger timeframes. The pair had a +600 pips rally since April of this year and +2,000 pips rally since the lows hit in 2015.
For a mostly range-bound pair this is too much. Technical indicators seem to confirm this view. The Stochastic Oscillator on the weekly hart is showing a value over 80, indicating overbought market sentiment.
Our final chart below shows that things aren't looking rosy for the bulls on the shorter-term charts either. Here we see the EUR/GBP …
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Multiple Studies Says EUR/SEK to Stay Near Longterm Average

fxsurprise8 Publié 31 mai comme Analyse sur EUR/SEK, Cible: 9.7704, Date: 3 de juillet, 12:00 GMT  dans #Technical analysis #Euro #Sweden #200 Sma #Moving Average #EUR/SEK #Fibonacci Level #Mean Reversion #Swedish Krona #2008 Crisis
This is one of those pictures that's worth a thousand words. The chart below shows mutiple studies confirming my view that the EUR/SEK will stay near its long-term average. First we have the 200 month moving average in blue. It's currently at 9.277, only 5 percent away from the current market price. This means that the current price is just a few days worth of trading away from its average during the past 16 years.
If that doesn't show you the state of this currency pair, there's more! Notice th…
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Gains in EUR/GBP Likely Over

fxsurprise8 Publié 31 mai comme Analyse sur EUR/GBP, Cible: 0.8731, Date: 3 de juillet, 12:00 GMT  dans #Technical analysis #GBP #EUR #EUR/GBP #Overbought Status #Stochastic Indicator #Swing Low #Range Bound #Swing High #Mean Reversion
The EUR/GBP is approaching overbought levels. After the latest 400 pips rally on the daily chart below we peaked at 80 on the Stoch and we're now dropping down. The gains likely coming to an end here.
On our second chart below we're seeing that this currency pair has been range-bound for almost one year, since September of 2016. Notice the swings up and down, every rally is being sold into while every drip is being bought. Furthermore here too we're seeing the Stochastic Oscillator above 80, sig…
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Swedish Krona Settles Back in Range

fxsurprise8 Publié 28 fév comme Analyse sur EUR/SEK, Cible: 9.5588, Date: 3 de avril, 12:00 GMT  dans #Technical analysis #EUR #SEK #Euro #Support #Resistance #Reversal Pattern #EUR/SEK #Mean Reversion #Single Currency
The Swedish Krona is settling back into its long-term range against the Euro. The pair ventured above the highs of this range at 9.7291 during the chaos after Trump's election victory. But since then we've seen that move slowly retraced back down.
We are currently quoted substantially below the 9.7291 resistance level. And as we can see on our next chart below, the situation doesn't look better on the lower time-frames either. Here too we're seeing range-bound price movement.
The pair opened the…
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fxsurprise8 29 mar

UPDATE 3: The pair continues to follow mean reversion, albeit in a bit larger range. Today a low of 9.5412 was hit, soon followed by a high of 9.5734.

Few hours later the momentum shifted again, this time to the downside. The EUR/SEK eventually closed the day at 9.5450, barely changed from the 9.5490 open.

We are currently quoted at 9.5454, only 0.14 percent away from my targeted price. Everything continues to go according to my plan here.

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fxsurprise8 30 mar

UPDATE 4: It's starting to look like Groundhog Day here as we got another day with high volatility but little decisive movement in the EUR/SEK.

First the bulls pushed prices all the way up to 9.5679, just below yesterday's high at 9.5734. This was quickly followed by heavy selling again that took us to a low of 0.95435.

We are currently quoted at 9.5451, almost no change compared to the price noted in my previous update (9.5454). Clearly mean-reversion is still at play here.

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fxsurprise8 31 mar

UPDATE 5: This pair continues to perform mostly as expected. It's now trading at 9.5558, drifting even closer to my forecasted price at 9.5588.

Let's examine what happened this month. We opened at 9.5573, then rallied to a high of 9.6295 only to get sold into a low of 9.4560 just few days later.

From here however we got yet another mean-reverting move that brought us back toward the 9.5500 area, where we are trading right now. Clearly my original call for range-bound market in March has been right so far!

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fxsurprise8 1 avr

UPDATE 6: This for another update, this time with a chart. Let's put in a picture what we've been saying in words.

The picture shows the EUR/SEK price action during March. Let's examine what happened this month. We opened at 9.5573, rallied to a high of 9.6295 only to get sold into a low of 9.4560 just few days later.

We closed on Friday at 9.5526, barely changed compared to the monthly open. With only half day of trading left on Monday in this contest, odds look good for a top position!

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fxsurprise8 2 avr

UPDATE 7: The Euro is having a small revival with the start of the week across the board. While most EUR pairs closed near the lows on Friday, in the early hours on Sunday we're seeing them slowly creep back up!

The Swedish Krona had an interesting start to the week. First we gapped opened lower to 9.5436, only to rally back to 9.5572 right now.

This is only 16 pips away from my forecasted price, or 0.02% in percentage terms. If things don't change much on Monday, I have a real shot at the first place position this month!

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Swedish Krona Mean Reverts Against Euro

fxsurprise8 Publié 31 déc comme Analyse sur EUR/SEK, Cible: 9.5765, Date: 1 de février, 12:00 GMT  dans #Technical analysis #SEK #Euro #Support #Resistance #Reversal Pattern #EUR/SEK #Mean Reversion #Swedish Krona #V Shaped Reversal
The Swedish Krona mean-reverted against the Euro yet again. This wont come as a surprise to the readers of my TA posts, because I've written about the range-bound nature of this pair for the past few months. In the process of reversing the pair fell back below the 9.73 handle, a key resistance level that kept a lid on prices.
On our next chart we can see just how important this level has been. It remained unbroken for the past few years, holding the EUR/SEK in a tight range. Things are not looki…
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Singapore Dollar Resumes Range-bound Trading

fxsurprise8 Publié 31 déc comme Analyse sur USD/SGD, Cible: 1.44744, Date: 1 de février, 12:00 GMT  dans #Technical analysis #USA #USD/SGD #Us Dollar #Singapore #Range Bound #Elections #Mean Reversion #Congestion #Trump Rally
The Singapore Dollar has resumed range-bound trading. On the first chart below the part in the rectangle shows the total monthly range during December. Notice how small that is compared to the previous few months. The open to close range shows an even clearer picture. Here the USD/SGD is at 151 pips during December, compared to 320 pips during November.
The uptrend in seems to be slowly losing steam.In fact during the last half of December not only has the rally slowed down, it has stopped altog…
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