Community
Blog
al_dcdemo's Blog

al_dcdemo's Blog

Avatar

AUD/USD to consolidate in August

al_dcdemo Posted 30 July as Analysis on AUD/USD, Target: 0.7425, Date: 1st of September, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD/USD #Breakout #Consolidation #Demand #Fake Breakout #Range #Easing Bias #May 2010 Low #Real Breakout
Monthly chart:
As most major pairs, Aussie accelerated its decline in the first month of the year. After a bit of consolidation it convincingly broke below 0.80 level and 50.0% retracement of the 2001 to 2011 uptrend. In the following four months it traded mostly between 0.7550 and 0.7950, but broke higher in the end of April. The breakout proved to be fake as the pair returned back to the range in May and then broke in the opposite direction in July.
Weekly chart:
Demand at 0.75 (level touted …
Read full story
Translate to English Show original

Since you are not logged in, we don't know your spoken language, but assume it is English
Please, sign in or choose another language to translate from the list.

– or –

8 Comments
View 3 more comments
al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 10 Aug.

UPDATE 4: Australian NAB Business Confidence (and few other lower-tier reports), Chinese Industrial Production, US retail sales and PPI reports are macroeconomic data points that will be watched in the week ahead. However, technicals are more important at the moment and the main question is how far the Aussie will extend before sellers step back in. If the RBA doesn't cut Cash Rate below 2.00% while the Australian economy recovers, 0.7235 may as well turn out to be the bottom.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 15 Aug.

UPDATE 5: The most notable event this week was the PBOC yuan devaluation, which impacted the pair strongly. PBOC weakened yuan fix three times: Tuesday (-1.9%), Wednesday (-1.6%) and Thursday (-1.1%). Second adjustment sent the pair to new six-year lows below 0.7250 but it bounced sharply from there and then went sideways for the remainder of the week. The result is a nice hammer on the weekly chart.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 16 Aug.

UPDATE 6: Apart from Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes from the last RBA meeting, there's nothing of note on the calendar for the week ahead from Australia. Provided that there won't be any further PBOC shocks and that US inflation comes out around consensus, this relative lack of noise may allow for a clearer view of the pair's near term direction. I think the risk is to the upside, though.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 28 Aug.

UPDATE 7: Compared to weekly ranges in few other risk sensitive pairs, week in the Aussie was relatively calm. The range was defined on Monday when turmoil in global markets sent the pair within a striking distance from the big 0.70 level. The pair spent the remaining four trading days in that range while volatility has been falling towards the end of the week. It looks as a blow-off bottom, but it may not be.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 29 Aug.

UPDATE 8: Next week will be big for the pair as we will get GDP, Retail Sales and Trade Balance reports along with plethora of lower-tier economic indicators. On top of that, RBA will meet on Tuesday. US will release ISM Manufacturing PMI, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and NFP reports. Technically, if the blow-off bottom hypothesis is correct, the pair has to rise, preferably from the off. Initial resistance is seen in 0.7200 - 0.7250 band.

orto leave comments
Avatar

AUD/USD to break lower

al_dcdemo Posted 30 June as Analysis on AUD/USD, Target: 0.7275, Date: 3rd of August, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD/USD #Fake Breakout #Range #Weakness #Easing Bias #Higher Lows #Rba Governor Stevens #May 2010 Low #Spring Pattern
Monthly chart:
As most major pairs, Aussie accelerated its decline in the first month of the year. After a bit of consolidation it convincingly broke below 0.80 level and 50.0% retracement of the 2001 to 2011 uptrend. In the following four months it traded mostly in 0.7550 - 0.7950 range, but broke higher in the end of April. The breakout proved to have been fake as the pair returned back to the range in May.
Weekly chart:
Should the downtrend resume, some demand may come in at 0.75 (level tout…
Read full story
Translate to English Show original

Since you are not logged in, we don't know your spoken language, but assume it is English
Please, sign in or choose another language to translate from the list.

– or –

12 Comments
View 7 more comments
al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 25 July

UPDATE 8: The latest fall stalled near January 2009 high (0.7268). Below that, 0.72 (61.8% retracement of the 2001 to 2011 uptrend, 76.4% retracement of the 2008 to 2011 rally), 0.71 (trendline drawn off of 2001 and 2008 lows) and 0.70 (big figure level) shall come into play. The pair so far failed to break back above 0.73. Further resistance is seen at the broken Monday low near 0.7325.

WallStreet6 avatar
WallStreet6 28 July

Great analysis and it could land really close to target!

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 31 July

Thanks! Yep, this one looks promising. :)

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 31 July

UPDATE 9: Aussie posted three new six-year lows this week, but none of them was able to attract sufficient orderflow to spur stronger downward momentum. The pair's range was the smallest of the seven major pairs, just over 130 pips. However, the pair spent most of the week in even smaller, 100 pip, range. This week concludes five weeks of losses and the month in which the pair lost four cents.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 1 Aug.

UPDATE 10: Week ahead will be important one for the pair as the RBA meets and we will be given clues as to where they are standing with regard to the monetary policy. January 2009 high (~0.7270) is the first support level to break, if the downtrend is to continue. Below that we have 76.4% retracement of the 2008 to 2011 rally (~0.7210) and 61.8% retracement of the 2001 to 2011 uptrend (~0.7180). Initial resistance may be found around 0.7350.

orto leave comments