al_dcdemo's Blog

Avatar

GBP/USD retraces to 1.315, Manufacturing PMI beats

The dollar reclaimed a good part of the ground it lost on Friday. GBP/USD retraced about 70 pips before finding some support near 1.3150. U.K. Manufacturing PMI for June came in slightly better than expected but the pair is not racing anywhere. Some further backing and filling is possible before U.S. traders show what they got.
Read full story
Translate to English Show original
orto leave comments
Avatar

U.S. dollar weakness continues, Cable gains

GBP/USD closed last year just above 1.35. The pair added 50 pips so far today, shrugging off weaker than expected Manufacturing PMI as U.S. dollar weakness continues to play out in the new year. 1.3650 is the next target.
Read full story
Translate to English Show original
orto leave comments
Avatar

Cable rally stalls into 1.30

The second leg of post-snap-election-call rally in Cable looks intimidated by the big figure at 1.30. Much better than expected Manufacturing PMI yesterday helped to put in a near-term bottom. A catalyst for a breakout or a failure may come from FOMC today, NFP on Friday or BOE next Thursday.
Positioning in the British Pound futures still suggests an extremely short market. That should give the pair some fuel on a successful break higher, which would target 1.31 initially and put 1.33 into focus…
Read full story
Translate to English Show original
orto leave comments
Avatar

Cable breaks below 1.2350

After a failed attempt at the upside last week, Cable broke to the downside. Disagreement over the Brexit bill and weaker than expected manufacturing PMI were cited as drivers but the pair seemed poised to break 1.2350 anyway.
The pair traded down to 1.2280 yesterday and as low as 1.2260 so far today with relatively shallow pullbacks. 1.22 - 1.225 is the initial support before stronger one between 1.20 and 1.21. Area around 1.24, which includes 50 and 100 DMA, should now act as a resistance.
Read full story
Translate to English Show original
Gonchar avatar
Gonchar 10 Mar.

словения рулит

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 11 Mar.

Thank you!

orto leave comments
Avatar

Cable starts the month with a rally

Start of the new month has seen British pound bulls step up. No particular driver has been cited and the pound rallied despite weaker than expected Manufacturing PMI. That speaks of underlying strength as the pound is bought across the board with GBP/JPY move particularly notable.
Cable closed above 50 DMA and 1.25 level yesterday what makes today's move a logical continuation. November high (1.2675) is the immediate resistance but a stronger one may come in closer to July low and 100 DMA, near …
Read full story
Translate to English Show original
orto leave comments
Avatar

Cable sells off after weak services PMI

One-off flash Markit PMIs for U.K. services and manufacturing came in at 47.4 (vs. 48.9 expected) and 49.1 (vs. 47.8 expected), respectively. A fall in the services index rises odds of a rate cut by the BOE in August.
Cable lost about 100 pips so far after the release and is currently stalling near yesterday's low (~1.3150). The next stronger support levels are Wednesday's low (~1.3065) and 1.30. In case of a rebound, 1.32 - 1.3225 looks like a decent resistance.
Read full story
Translate to English Show original
orto leave comments
Avatar

Cable posts an outside day reversal

Cable staged an impressive outside day reversal yesterday. A Brexit poll showing Leave ahead was touted as a culprit. The pair traded up to 1.4640 in Asian session but then fell all the way to 1.4465 in European and N.A. session, closing near the low. It was unable to rally today, despite an improvement in Manufacturing PMI.
If it manages to hold below 1.45, further downside is likely with the first target 1.44 (50 DMA) and then 1.4325 - 1.4350 (May low, 100 DMA). 1.45 is the initial resistance …
Read full story
Translate to English Show original
orto leave comments
Avatar

Cable gives back gains

It turned out that a rally in Cable in the beginning of the week was just a massive short squeeze as the pair turned lower yesterday and continued today after much weaker than expected Manufacturing PMI.
It posted long shooting star on the weekly chart, which implies further losses in the week ahead. That scenario is now strongly supported by weaker fundamentals and UK election to come next week is not helping it either.
Read full story
Translate to English Show original
Nihad avatar
Nihad 3 May

Nice post, but beware this week of the Sterling, the next will be a jump over the creed. The Springboard is working fine in bracketing, but I think its the last bottom spring touch. This negative sentiment on the Sterling is a diversion to wait and see the election result next Thursday. And suddenly, everything in the UK will be positive and you will just notice it at the 1.56 level.

Nihad avatar
Nihad 3 May

To sum it up, SHORTING the cable for a revisit to the 1.45 is a huge loss, the same way people I know shorted the EURO @ the 1.08 for a revisit to the 1.04, as the so-called Analysts were advertising the idea of the 1.00 figure, what happened since then, while people got distracted it boomed to the 1.12, a gain of 80 points(800 pips). Now, you will think many times before going Long again on it at this level. QE was the reason for the Euro and the Yen, but what was it for the Sterling?. Take a look at the Cable two weeks before Scottish Independence and see where was the Cable.

al_dcdemo avatar

I'm bullish Cable, especially if US data continues to disappoint, but I think it will retest 1.50 and perhaps run stops below it, before continuing higher.

orto leave comments