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EUR/SEK Nears Top of the Range

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 July as Analysis on EUR/SEK, Target: 9.5581, Date: 1st of September, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #SEK #Euro #Low Volatility #EUR/SEK #Range Top #Single Currency #Swedish Krona
The Swedish Krona has been trading range-bound versus the Euro since the start of 2015. In December 2014 we peaked at 9.7268 and we haven't surpassed this high ever since. This doesn't mean that the bulls haven't tried. On the weekly chart below we show 5 subsequent attempts to break above this previous high, with no success.
With prices now nearing the levels where previous rallies have failed, it's natural to ask has the current move higher been overdone? I think yes. Notice how the Stochastic…
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fxsurprise8 31 Aug.

The bulls have again been repelled (see pic 1 above) this time peaking at 9.5991. In the retracement that followed, a low of 9.4260 was hit.

The Stochastic (see pic 2 above) predicted this rejection nicely. But I don't put too much weight on indicators and I think the bigger reason for the resistance cluster we have above 9.6000.

This should continue to act as a lid on prices. We're now trading at 9.5072, about half a percent away from forecast.

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fxsurprise8 1 Sep.

The EUR/SEK had a large rally during the past 24 hours. We moved from 5.5072 to a high of 5.5855. This is a rally of 1.4 percent in a pair that doesn't move that much.

Unfortunately for me, this means that the pair went from undershooting my target to overshooting it by quite a bit.

But it's not over yet! As I mentioned in my other comments I expect the resistance cluster from 9.60 to 9.78 to do its job and repel prices once again. Hopefully this will lead to the EUR/SEK landing nicely at my forecasted price and not undershoot it :)

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fxsurprise8 1 Sep.

Time for another update! Prices did overshoot my target somewhat. As expected, as we got near the highs the pair was pummeled back into the ground.

We fell to a low of 9.5420 around mid-day but in the next few hours the EUR/SEK rose a bit, bringing it very close to my target.

At 12:00 GMT we closed at 9.5531, only 50 pips or 0.05% away from my forecasted price. Overall I think this was a solid analysis on my part. I identified the general market sentiment and made a correct bet that the resistance levels would keep prices down.

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fxsurprise8 1 Sep.

Here's an updated chart of what happened in August. Prices tried to make a run and break the highs but they were again repelled.

Note that now we have six rectangles on the chart, not five like in my original post. The last rectangle shows the latest price rejection this month.

The cluster of resistance levels from around 9.60 to 9.72 has again successfully stopped another rally in the EUR/SEK.

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More of the Same for the EUR/SEK

fxsurprise8 Posted 30 June as Analysis on EUR/SEK, Target: 9.3855, Date: 1st of August, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR #SEK #Euro #Range #Low Volatility #EUR/SEK #Range Bound #Swedish Krona
The EUR/SEK has been range-bound since December of 2014. We saw a high of 9.7285 during that time-frame and a low of 9.0511 but ultimately prices keep reverting to the middle of the extremes around 9.3500. We are currently quoted not far from here at 9.3842.
Things are not looking good for trend traders on lower timeframes as well. For example notice how on the 4 Hour chart below we traded around 9.3800 before that big jump in volatility in the middle (the UK referendum). As we got close to the …
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