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More Losses for the USD/JPY

fxsurprise8 发布31 3月 为分析在 USD/JPY , Target: 108.12, 日期: 1 于 5月, 12:00 GMT  在 #Technical analysis #JPY #Trendline #USD/JPY #Fomc #Us Dollar #Japanese Yen #Decline #Downtrend #Average True Range
The USD/JPY had a remarkable run since the second half of 2016. We saw the pair rally by almost 2,000 pips from the lows to hit 118.65. But in the past few months the gains have stalled and recently the trendline underpinning the move higher has been broken, as you can see on the weekly chart below.
We’re already down by almost 700 pips right now but bodies in motion tend to stay in motion. And currencies in a downtrend tend to continue in that direction. I’m targeting more of the same during A…
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EUR/JPY Range-bound on Long-term Charts

fxsurprise8 发布28 2月 为分析在 EUR/JPY , Target: 118.73, 日期: 3 于 4月, 12:00 GMT  在 #Technical analysis #Euro #EUR/JPY #Japan #European Union #Japanese Yen #Range Bound #Single Currency #Congestion #No Trends #V Shaped Reversal
The EUR/JPY has been range-bound for over 8 months now. As you can see on the weekly chart below, the downtrend has been broken and we got a V-shaped reversal. We are now quoted at 118.73, this is the same price as back in June for example.
The situation doesn't look any better on the daily charts as well. Here we can see that the Trump rally from November is slowly being retraced away. Here we got an upside down V-shaped reversal.
In short, while volatility is high prices are not moving much on…
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fxsurprise8 31 3月

UPDATE 3: More good news to report! The downtrend in EUR/JPY continued for another day. Not only did the pair fall down to my target but it even exceed it a bit.

We are currently quoted at 118.66, 7 pips below my forecasted price. While the past few days have seen some downward momentum, on the monthly charts  this is still range-bound market.

As a reminder, we opened the monthly at 119.20, the highest high was at 122.88 while the lowest low was at 118.63 (today). So lots of volatility but ultimately not going anywhere.

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fxsurprise8 1 4月

UPDATE 4: Time for another update and this time with a chart! The EUR/JPY so far is behaving right as expected.

We forecasted more range this month and as the chart above shows this is exactly what we got.  The vertical line shows the monthly open on March 1st.

We opened the month at 119.20, the highest high was at 122.88 while the lowest low was at 118.63 (Friday). We are currently trading very closer to the lows and almost exactly at my 118.73 target. Let's hope for a calm end to this contest!

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fxsurprise8 2 4月

UPDATE 5: After closing near the lows on Friday, this Sunday morning we're seeing a general recovery in all EUR pairs. The gains are not large but they're sizable for this time of day, which tends to be a bit slower.

Same happened with te EUR/JPY, that initially saw it gap open 14 pips higher at 118.76. We tend rallied further to 118.97 but fall back down to 118.75 right now.

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fxsurprise8 3 4月

UPDATE 6: My initial forecast called for range-bound movement in the EUR/JPY. As evidence I presented two long-term charts (daily and weekly) where we can see a V-shaped reversal, the hallmark of all range-bound markets.

Now we add to this collection the 4 Hour chart (see above). This shows the most recent price action of this currency pair during March and again confirms the ranges by printing yet another V-shaped reversal!

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fxsurprise8 3 4月

continued due to word limit: The EUR/JPY opened the month 119.20, then rallied to a high of 122.88. From here we fell to a low of 118.13. We are currently trading at 118.35.

But ultimately the pair 'closed' the contest at 118.69. This was the price printed at 12:00 GMT, according to the Dukascopy charts.

This means that my initial forecast was 'off' my only 4 pips or 0.033%. Not a surprising result given that price action did exactly what I expected. Let's hope that the other guys weren't as lucky so I can finally score a top 1 position in this contest :)

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EUR/JPY Uptrend Grinds to a Halt

fxsurprise8 发布31 12月 为分析在 EUR/JPY , Target: 123.151, 日期: 1 于 2月, 12:00 GMT  在 #Technical analysis #EUR #JPY #Euro #EUR/JPY #Japan #Japanese Yen #Uptrend #Timeframes #Single Currency
The EUR/JPY uptrend grinded to a halt during December. The total monthly range (open to close) was only 185 pips. This compared with 609 pips during November. So there's a noticeable slowdown in the pace of the rally.
Then why am I predicting no change in January? Take a look at our next picture. On the lower timeframes we can see that the trend is already dead and prices are just swinging up and down with no clear direction.
I expect this range-bound behavior to continue so I'm placing my forec…
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EUR/JPY Overbought on Multiple Timeframes

fxsurprise8 发布30 11月 为分析在 EUR/JPY , Target: 121.05, 日期: 2 于 1月, 12:00 GMT  在 #Technical analysis #JPY #Euro #EUR/JPY #Japanese Yen #Overbought #Stochastic #Stoch #Timeframes #Single Currency
The EUR/JPY is overbought on most time-frames. The first picture below shows a daily chart. Notice how the Stochastic Oscillator traded above the 80 line and is now coming down. This is a classic overbought signal followed by a confirmation, the moving down back below the 80 line.
Exhibit number two shows us the situation on the 4 Hour chart. Here too the pair is flashing an overbought signal. The Stoch is printing a value of 91 right now. The pair is stretched to extreme levels.
Our final chart…
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fxsurprise8 28 12月

So far so good! After a long post-election rally the EUR/JPY has traded mostly range-bound during December. Looks like all those overbought signals are finally having an effect.

The high to low range is now at 539 pips, with a high at 124.09 and a low at 118.70. But most important, the open to close range is tiny at only 48 pips.

We are currently quoted at 122.01 in the EUR/JPY, only 94 pips or 0.77 percent above my forecasted price. Here's to hoping for a small drop into month-end!

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EUR/JPY Firmly in Triangle Pattern

fxsurprise8 发布31 10月 为分析在 EUR/JPY , Target: 115.09, 日期: 1 于 12月, 12:00 GMT  在 #Technical analysis #EUR #Euro #EUR/JPY #Japan #Volatility #Japanese Yen #Triangle Pattern #Range Bound #JPY Crosses
The EUR/JPY is now firmly inside a large triangle pattern. Look at the weekly chart below. Prices have been stuck inside this formation for the past several months. And while this is a trend continuation pattern, until the bears manage to break out range-bound trading will persist.
Let's take a look at a lower time-frame chart as well to get a fuller picture. On the daily chart below this range-bound behavior is even more evident. Notice how prices have stayed virtually flat since the start of t…
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More Gains for the Japanese Yen

fxsurprise8 发布30 9月 为分析在 USD/JPY , Target: 96.16, 日期: 1 于 11月, 12:00 GMT  在 #Technical analysis #JPY #USD #Japan #USD/JPY #Us Dollar #Japanese Yen #Selling #Swing Low #Swing High
The Japanese Yen is slated for more gains against the US Dollar. Look at our first chart below. Notice how for the past four months the bears have been on the offensive, selling every rally and attacking the round 100 figure. The small rectangles on the chart show the tests of this level, a total six of them.
With each test the odds increase that we will see a break below. But if we see a decline, where will prices stop in October? I’m betting on close to 96.16 and here’s why. Not far from 100 …
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High Volatility, Low Price Changes

fxsurprise8 发布30 9月 为分析在 EUR/JPY , Target: 113.93, 日期: 1 于 11月, 12:00 GMT  在 #Technical analysis #JPY #Euro #EUR/JPY #Japan #Volatility #Japanese Yen #Range Bound #Price Change #Ranges
High volatility but small price changes. That's how we can characterize September for the EUR/JPY. The pair rallied to a high of 116.35 then fell to a monthly low at 112.07. But the open to close price change was much less impressive at only 138 pips.
Our next chart below demonstrates my point more clearly. Notice how the EUR/JPY is slowly forming a triangle pattern. This means that the ranges are getting narrower and narrower. Thus I'm betting on prices slowly calming down in ever tighter range…
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fxsurprise8 31 10月

With prices at 115.14, the bulls are currently pushing on the upper end of the triangle in the picture above. Earlier in the day we traded as high as 115.25. The10 pips decline is too small to be classified as a bounce yet but if the move lower continues, we can conclude that prices respected the triangle.

The monthly range for the EUR/JPY is now at only 368 pips,with a high at 116.28 and a low at 112.60.These numbers are very close to September which had a 116.35 high and a low at 112.07.

This confirms that my analysis above is correct, this pair is volatile but ultimately stays in range.

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USD/JPY Targets Brexit Highs

fxsurprise8 发布31 8月 为分析在 USD/JPY , Target: 106.71, 日期: 3 于 10月, 12:00 GMT  在 #Technical analysis #USD #Trend #USD/JPY #Boj #Japanese Yen #Bounce #Jackson Hole #JPY Crosses #Brexit
The USD/JPY is finally trending up after a long bear market. After some Dollar positive comments at Jackson Hole the pair got a lift. We’re now trading 336 pips higher from the lows marked on August 26th.
Where can we look for a potential target? The average monthly range in this pair has been 520 pips. But that’s low to high, not open to close. A more conservative target would be in the 300 pips range.
On our chart above we see a level that qualifies. The pre-Brexit highs at 106.80 are importa…
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Clashing Trends in the EUR/JPY

fxsurprise8 发布31 8月 为分析在 EUR/JPY , Target: 115.32, 日期: 3 于 10月, 12:00 GMT  在 #Technical analysis #EUR #JPY #Euro #EUR/JPY #Volatility #Trends #Japanese Yen #Bounce #Range Bound
We're having two contradicting trends develop in the EUR/JPY. On the shorter time-frame, a tentative bullish trend has developed in the past few days. See the 4h chart below. We're now up over 250 pips from the lows recorded last Friday.
But things are looking quite the opposite on the longer-term charts. Note the strong downward trend on the weekly chart below. Since peaking out at 149.78 in December of 2014, the EUR/JPY has been in a bearish trend. The low was hit at 109.48 this June, post-Bre…
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fxsurprise8 30 9月

So far my forecast has been generally correct but prices are still far from my target. Let me explain. In September the EUR/JPY hit a high of 116.07 and a low of 112.07.

But those extremes don't tell the whole story. Most of the month the EUR/JPY spent in the middle of this range. We're currently quoted at 113.69, close to the 50% mark.

Unfortunately due to large selling on two days this month (September 20th and 21st) the neutral point has shifted somewhat lower and for the past week we've been drudging along in this 113-114 range. I will need the pair to rally to bring me close to target.

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Pointless Volatility in the Yen

fxsurprise8 发布31 7月 为分析在 EUR/JPY , Target: 114.30, 日期: 1 于 9月, 12:00 GMT  在 #Technical analysis #EUR #JPY #EUR/JPY #Japan #Volatility #Boj #Japanese Yen #Brexit
The EUR/JPY experienced massive volatility during the past 2 months. First Brexit then the highly anticipated July BOJ meeting ricked prices up/down. Perhaps surprisingly however, we're currently quoted right above the 50% Fib retracement of the most recent high/low.
This to me signals that the market is undecided here.The 50% Fib at 113.97 and the 114 round figure should support prices.But the weekly trend is strongly down as can be seen on the chart below. Meanwhile the daily and 4H are more m…
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fxsurprise8 31 8月

With a monthly high to low range of only 260 pips and a open to close move of 65 pips, my forecast is proving to be correct.

We're now quoted at 114.91 so overshooting my target by a bit. But I think that the closeness of the major round level at 115.00 and the 38% Fib at 115.03 (see pic 1 above) will put a lid on prices, at least in the short-term.

And like I mentioned in my original post, on the other end the 50% Fib at 113.97 and the 114 round figure should support prices.

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