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EUR/JPY Range-bound on Long-term Charts

fxsurprise8 Publié 28 fév comme Analyse sur EUR/JPY, Cible: 118.73, Date: 3 de avril, 12:00 GMT  dans #Technical analysis #Euro #EUR/JPY #Japan #European Union #Japanese Yen #Range Bound #Single Currency #Congestion #No Trends #V Shaped Reversal
The EUR/JPY has been range-bound for over 8 months now. As you can see on the weekly chart below, the downtrend has been broken and we got a V-shaped reversal. We are now quoted at 118.73, this is the same price as back in June for example.
The situation doesn't look any better on the daily charts as well. Here we can see that the Trump rally from November is slowly being retraced away. Here we got an upside down V-shaped reversal.
In short, while volatility is high prices are not moving much on…
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fxsurprise8 31 mar

UPDATE 3: More good news to report! The downtrend in EUR/JPY continued for another day. Not only did the pair fall down to my target but it even exceed it a bit.

We are currently quoted at 118.66, 7 pips below my forecasted price. While the past few days have seen some downward momentum, on the monthly charts  this is still range-bound market.

As a reminder, we opened the monthly at 119.20, the highest high was at 122.88 while the lowest low was at 118.63 (today). So lots of volatility but ultimately not going anywhere.

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fxsurprise8 1 avr

UPDATE 4: Time for another update and this time with a chart! The EUR/JPY so far is behaving right as expected.

We forecasted more range this month and as the chart above shows this is exactly what we got.  The vertical line shows the monthly open on March 1st.

We opened the month at 119.20, the highest high was at 122.88 while the lowest low was at 118.63 (Friday). We are currently trading very closer to the lows and almost exactly at my 118.73 target. Let's hope for a calm end to this contest!

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fxsurprise8 2 avr

UPDATE 5: After closing near the lows on Friday, this Sunday morning we're seeing a general recovery in all EUR pairs. The gains are not large but they're sizable for this time of day, which tends to be a bit slower.

Same happened with te EUR/JPY, that initially saw it gap open 14 pips higher at 118.76. We tend rallied further to 118.97 but fall back down to 118.75 right now.

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fxsurprise8 3 avr

UPDATE 6: My initial forecast called for range-bound movement in the EUR/JPY. As evidence I presented two long-term charts (daily and weekly) where we can see a V-shaped reversal, the hallmark of all range-bound markets.

Now we add to this collection the 4 Hour chart (see above). This shows the most recent price action of this currency pair during March and again confirms the ranges by printing yet another V-shaped reversal!

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fxsurprise8 3 avr

continued due to word limit: The EUR/JPY opened the month 119.20, then rallied to a high of 122.88. From here we fell to a low of 118.13. We are currently trading at 118.35.

But ultimately the pair 'closed' the contest at 118.69. This was the price printed at 12:00 GMT, according to the Dukascopy charts.

This means that my initial forecast was 'off' my only 4 pips or 0.033%. Not a surprising result given that price action did exactly what I expected. Let's hope that the other guys weren't as lucky so I can finally score a top 1 position in this contest :)

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USD/JPY to Head Toward 111.00

fxsurprise8 Publié 31 déc comme Analyse sur USD/JPY, Cible: 111.56, Date: 1 de février, 12:00 GMT  dans #Technical analysis #JPY #USD #Trendline #Japan #USD/JPY #Us Dollar #Breakdown #Downtrend #Average True Range
I expect the USD/JPY to retrace a significant portion of its gains. The rally in the pair is reaching unsustainable levels. We’re now up by over 1,500 pips from the November lows. But as can be seen on the chart below, things could be changing. The trendline underpinning this move on the daily charts has been broken.
Our second chart below shows the situation on the lower timeframe charts. Here we see that the momentum has turned to the downside. We have a consensus between these two timeframes…
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EUR/JPY Uptrend Grinds to a Halt

fxsurprise8 Publié 31 déc comme Analyse sur EUR/JPY, Cible: 123.151, Date: 1 de février, 12:00 GMT  dans #Technical analysis #EUR #JPY #Euro #EUR/JPY #Japan #Japanese Yen #Uptrend #Timeframes #Single Currency
The EUR/JPY uptrend grinded to a halt during December. The total monthly range (open to close) was only 185 pips. This compared with 609 pips during November. So there's a noticeable slowdown in the pace of the rally.
Then why am I predicting no change in January? Take a look at our next picture. On the lower timeframes we can see that the trend is already dead and prices are just swinging up and down with no clear direction.
I expect this range-bound behavior to continue so I'm placing my forec…
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EUR/JPY Firmly in Triangle Pattern

fxsurprise8 Publié 31 oct comme Analyse sur EUR/JPY, Cible: 115.09, Date: 1 de décembre, 12:00 GMT  dans #Technical analysis #EUR #Euro #EUR/JPY #Japan #Volatility #Japanese Yen #Triangle Pattern #Range Bound #JPY Crosses
The EUR/JPY is now firmly inside a large triangle pattern. Look at the weekly chart below. Prices have been stuck inside this formation for the past several months. And while this is a trend continuation pattern, until the bears manage to break out range-bound trading will persist.
Let's take a look at a lower time-frame chart as well to get a fuller picture. On the daily chart below this range-bound behavior is even more evident. Notice how prices have stayed virtually flat since the start of t…
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More Gains for the Japanese Yen

fxsurprise8 Publié 30 sep comme Analyse sur USD/JPY, Cible: 96.16, Date: 1 de novembre, 12:00 GMT  dans #Technical analysis #JPY #USD #Japan #USD/JPY #Us Dollar #Japanese Yen #Selling #Swing Low #Swing High
The Japanese Yen is slated for more gains against the US Dollar. Look at our first chart below. Notice how for the past four months the bears have been on the offensive, selling every rally and attacking the round 100 figure. The small rectangles on the chart show the tests of this level, a total six of them.
With each test the odds increase that we will see a break below. But if we see a decline, where will prices stop in October? I’m betting on close to 96.16 and here’s why. Not far from 100 …
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High Volatility, Low Price Changes

fxsurprise8 Publié 30 sep comme Analyse sur EUR/JPY, Cible: 113.93, Date: 1 de novembre, 12:00 GMT  dans #Technical analysis #JPY #Euro #EUR/JPY #Japan #Volatility #Japanese Yen #Range Bound #Price Change #Ranges
High volatility but small price changes. That's how we can characterize September for the EUR/JPY. The pair rallied to a high of 116.35 then fell to a monthly low at 112.07. But the open to close price change was much less impressive at only 138 pips.
Our next chart below demonstrates my point more clearly. Notice how the EUR/JPY is slowly forming a triangle pattern. This means that the ranges are getting narrower and narrower. Thus I'm betting on prices slowly calming down in ever tighter range…
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fxsurprise8 31 oct

With prices at 115.14, the bulls are currently pushing on the upper end of the triangle in the picture above. Earlier in the day we traded as high as 115.25. The10 pips decline is too small to be classified as a bounce yet but if the move lower continues, we can conclude that prices respected the triangle.

The monthly range for the EUR/JPY is now at only 368 pips,with a high at 116.28 and a low at 112.60.These numbers are very close to September which had a 116.35 high and a low at 112.07.

This confirms that my analysis above is correct, this pair is volatile but ultimately stays in range.

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Pointless Volatility in the Yen

fxsurprise8 Publié 31 juillet comme Analyse sur EUR/JPY, Cible: 114.30, Date: 1 de septembre, 12:00 GMT  dans #Technical analysis #EUR #JPY #EUR/JPY #Japan #Volatility #Boj #Japanese Yen #Brexit
The EUR/JPY experienced massive volatility during the past 2 months. First Brexit then the highly anticipated July BOJ meeting ricked prices up/down. Perhaps surprisingly however, we're currently quoted right above the 50% Fib retracement of the most recent high/low.
This to me signals that the market is undecided here.The 50% Fib at 113.97 and the 114 round figure should support prices.But the weekly trend is strongly down as can be seen on the chart below. Meanwhile the daily and 4H are more m…
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fxsurprise8 31 aou

With a monthly high to low range of only 260 pips and a open to close move of 65 pips, my forecast is proving to be correct.

We're now quoted at 114.91 so overshooting my target by a bit. But I think that the closeness of the major round level at 115.00 and the 38% Fib at 115.03 (see pic 1 above) will put a lid on prices, at least in the short-term.

And like I mentioned in my original post, on the other end the 50% Fib at 113.97 and the 114 round figure should support prices.

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Yen Looks Overbought

fxsurprise8 Publié 30 juin comme Analyse sur USD/JPY, Cible: 104.89, Date: 1 de août, 12:00 GMT  dans #Technical analysis #Japan #USD/JPY #Fomc #Us Dollar #Reversal Pattern #Us Economy #Crisis #Japanese Yen #Stochastic
The Yen looks overbought. Normally a safe-haven currency, the Japanese Yen got bought up aggressively in the post-Brexit mayhem. But as we can see on the 4 Hour chart below, things are starting to change with prices possibly bottoming out. We have now retraced over 50% of the Brexit related move, with possibly more gains on the way.
There are signs of a bottom on longer-term charts as well. Notice below how the Stochastic has clearly hit oversold territory in the USD/JPY. The Stoch moved below 2…
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USD/JPY to Crack Under Pressure

fxsurprise8 Publié 30 sep comme Analyse sur USD/JPY, Cible: 116.300, Date: 2 de novembre, 12:00 GMT  dans #Technical analysis #USA #Japan #USD/JPY #Stock Market #Us Dollar #Japanese Yen #Risk Off #Sell Off
The Japanese Yen has been one of the major winners from the current stock market rout. This traditionally risk-off currency has benefited in August and September as the world's stock markets entered a correction phase. In August the USD/JPY fell by 274 pips while last month the pair lost a further 120 pips. We are currently consolidating within a larger downtrend, this is generally a trend-continuing pattern.
I expect that this downward trend will continue going into October. Seasonally, we see …
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Battle of the Biggest Losers to End in a Tie

fxsurprise8 Publié 30 sep comme Analyse sur EUR/JPY, Cible: 133.940, Date: 2 de novembre, 12:00 GMT  dans #Technical analysis #Euro #EUR/JPY #Japan #European Union #Japanese Yen #Risk Off #Stock Market Volatility
The Euro and the Japanese Yen have been locked in a battle for the biggest loser among the majors this year. The central banks behind both currencies have engaged in a massive campaign of Quantitative Easing. This is turn had the side-effect of turning the Euro and the Yen into risk-off currencies. In other words, during times of high uncertainty and stock market losses, these two get bought up as the previous risk-on moves get reversed.
But enough of the fundamentals. In the technical space, we…
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