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EUR/JPY Firmly in Triangle Pattern

fxsurprise8 投稿日: 2016年10月31日。分析予想通貨ペア:EUR/JPY, 予想レート: 115.09, 予想日: 1日12月, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR #Euro #EUR/JPY #Japan #Volatility #Japanese Yen #Triangle Pattern #Range Bound #JPY Crosses
The EUR/JPY is now firmly inside a large triangle pattern. Look at the weekly chart below. Prices have been stuck inside this formation for the past several months. And while this is a trend continuation pattern, until the bears manage to break out range-bound trading will persist.
Let's take a look at a lower time-frame chart as well to get a fuller picture. On the daily chart below this range-bound behavior is even more evident. Notice how prices have stayed virtually flat since the start of t…
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USD/JPY Targets Brexit Highs

fxsurprise8 投稿日: 2016年08月31日。分析予想通貨ペア:USD/JPY, 予想レート: 106.71, 予想日: 3日10月, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USD #Trend #USD/JPY #Boj #Japanese Yen #Bounce #Jackson Hole #JPY Crosses #Brexit
The USD/JPY is finally trending up after a long bear market. After some Dollar positive comments at Jackson Hole the pair got a lift. We’re now trading 336 pips higher from the lows marked on August 26th.
Where can we look for a potential target? The average monthly range in this pair has been 520 pips. But that’s low to high, not open to close. A more conservative target would be in the 300 pips range.
On our chart above we see a level that qualifies. The pre-Brexit highs at 106.80 are importa…
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The EUR/JPY Could Have Hard Time Breaking 115

fxsurprise8 投稿日: 2016年06月30日。分析予想通貨ペア:EUR/JPY, 予想レート: 114.534, 予想日: 1日8月, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR #Ecb #Euro #EUR/JPY #Rally #Japanese Yen #JPY Crosses #Brexit
The EUR/JPY could have a hard time breaking the 115 round figure. Prices are already up over 500 pips from the 109.48 lows. But perhaps more important, we've yet to reclaim the 50% retracement level. This was easily done in the USD/JPY for example. To me this signals that the Euro woes will continue to weigh on this pair.
The Brexit could lead to more ECB easing as well as calls for referendums in other EU nations. This will be an ongoing problem that the USD for example doesn't have. But I'm no…
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fxsurprise8 2016年08月01日

So far so good. The pair spent most of July in a range between 118.50 and 110.82. Granted the highs were a bit higher then I thought but the market will always aim for the extreme.

The unexpected market frenzy regarding 'helicopter money' took Yen pairs way beyond fundamentals this month. Eventually the BOJ poured cold water on the fantasy and we saw the EUR/JPY come crashing down near the end of the month.

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fxsurprise8 2016年08月01日

With only few hours to go, we're currently quoted at 114.13, about 40 pips below my forecasted price. Considering that today we saw the pair trade as high as 114.72 in Asia, there's still hope for a closer result.

Overall it wasn't a bad forecast. My main expectations was for some range-bound trading post-Brexit. This was generally correct. Even though volatility was much higher then expected, prices kept reverting back to the mean around 114.50 Euros per Yen.

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fxsurprise8 2016年08月01日

The pair closed the contest period at 114.065, 46.9 pips away from my forecast. In percentage terms this is around 0.41%. This should be enough to score a winning position but probably not at the top.

Today went similarly to how the entire previous month did, lots of volatility with little to show for it. The daily high stands at 114.73 while the low is at 113.92. From open to the mid-day price at 12:00 however, the range was only 17 pips.

Market participants are trying to outsmart each other but with the summer in full swing and the BOJ behind us, trends are bound to be short-lived here.

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