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More Losses for the USD/JPY

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Mar as Analysis on USD/JPY, Target: 108.12, Date: 1 di Maggio, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #JPY #Trendline #USD/JPY #Fomc #Us Dollar #Japanese Yen #Decline #Downtrend #Average True Range
The USD/JPY had a remarkable run since the second half of 2016. We saw the pair rally by almost 2,000 pips from the lows to hit 118.65. But in the past few months the gains have stalled and recently the trendline underpinning the move higher has been broken, as you can see on the weekly chart below.
We’re already down by almost 700 pips right now but bodies in motion tend to stay in motion. And currencies in a downtrend tend to continue in that direction. I’m targeting more of the same during A…
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USD/JPY to Head Toward 111.00

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Dic as Analysis on USD/JPY, Target: 111.56, Date: 1 di Febbraio, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #JPY #USD #Trendline #Japan #USD/JPY #Us Dollar #Breakdown #Downtrend #Average True Range
I expect the USD/JPY to retrace a significant portion of its gains. The rally in the pair is reaching unsustainable levels. We’re now up by over 1,500 pips from the November lows. But as can be seen on the chart below, things could be changing. The trendline underpinning this move on the daily charts has been broken.
Our second chart below shows the situation on the lower timeframe charts. Here we see that the momentum has turned to the downside. We have a consensus between these two timeframes…
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EUR/JPY Uptrend Grinds to a Halt

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Dic as Analysis on EUR/JPY, Target: 123.151, Date: 1 di Febbraio, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR #JPY #Euro #EUR/JPY #Japan #Japanese Yen #Uptrend #Timeframes #Single Currency
The EUR/JPY uptrend grinded to a halt during December. The total monthly range (open to close) was only 185 pips. This compared with 609 pips during November. So there's a noticeable slowdown in the pace of the rally.
Then why am I predicting no change in January? Take a look at our next picture. On the lower timeframes we can see that the trend is already dead and prices are just swinging up and down with no clear direction.
I expect this range-bound behavior to continue so I'm placing my forec…
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EUR/JPY Overbought on Multiple Timeframes

fxsurprise8 Posted 30 Nov as Analysis on EUR/JPY, Target: 121.05, Date: 2 di Gennaio, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #JPY #Euro #EUR/JPY #Japanese Yen #Overbought #Stochastic #Stoch #Timeframes #Single Currency
The EUR/JPY is overbought on most time-frames. The first picture below shows a daily chart. Notice how the Stochastic Oscillator traded above the 80 line and is now coming down. This is a classic overbought signal followed by a confirmation, the moving down back below the 80 line.
Exhibit number two shows us the situation on the 4 Hour chart. Here too the pair is flashing an overbought signal. The Stoch is printing a value of 91 right now. The pair is stretched to extreme levels.
Our final chart…
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fxsurprise8 28 Dic

So far so good! After a long post-election rally the EUR/JPY has traded mostly range-bound during December. Looks like all those overbought signals are finally having an effect.

The high to low range is now at 539 pips, with a high at 124.09 and a low at 118.70. But most important, the open to close range is tiny at only 48 pips.

We are currently quoted at 122.01 in the EUR/JPY, only 94 pips or 0.77 percent above my forecasted price. Here's to hoping for a small drop into month-end!

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More Gains for the Japanese Yen

fxsurprise8 Posted 30 Set as Analysis on USD/JPY, Target: 96.16, Date: 1 di Novembre, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #JPY #USD #Japan #USD/JPY #Us Dollar #Japanese Yen #Selling #Swing Low #Swing High
The Japanese Yen is slated for more gains against the US Dollar. Look at our first chart below. Notice how for the past four months the bears have been on the offensive, selling every rally and attacking the round 100 figure. The small rectangles on the chart show the tests of this level, a total six of them.
With each test the odds increase that we will see a break below. But if we see a decline, where will prices stop in October? I’m betting on close to 96.16 and here’s why. Not far from 100 …
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High Volatility, Low Price Changes

fxsurprise8 Posted 30 Set as Analysis on EUR/JPY, Target: 113.93, Date: 1 di Novembre, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #JPY #Euro #EUR/JPY #Japan #Volatility #Japanese Yen #Range Bound #Price Change #Ranges
High volatility but small price changes. That's how we can characterize September for the EUR/JPY. The pair rallied to a high of 116.35 then fell to a monthly low at 112.07. But the open to close price change was much less impressive at only 138 pips.
Our next chart below demonstrates my point more clearly. Notice how the EUR/JPY is slowly forming a triangle pattern. This means that the ranges are getting narrower and narrower. Thus I'm betting on prices slowly calming down in ever tighter range…
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fxsurprise8 31 Ott

With prices at 115.14, the bulls are currently pushing on the upper end of the triangle in the picture above. Earlier in the day we traded as high as 115.25. The10 pips decline is too small to be classified as a bounce yet but if the move lower continues, we can conclude that prices respected the triangle.

The monthly range for the EUR/JPY is now at only 368 pips,with a high at 116.28 and a low at 112.60.These numbers are very close to September which had a 116.35 high and a low at 112.07.

This confirms that my analysis above is correct, this pair is volatile but ultimately stays in range.

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Clashing Trends in the EUR/JPY

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Ago as Analysis on EUR/JPY, Target: 115.32, Date: 3 di Ottobre, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR #JPY #Euro #EUR/JPY #Volatility #Trends #Japanese Yen #Bounce #Range Bound
We're having two contradicting trends develop in the EUR/JPY. On the shorter time-frame, a tentative bullish trend has developed in the past few days. See the 4h chart below. We're now up over 250 pips from the lows recorded last Friday.
But things are looking quite the opposite on the longer-term charts. Note the strong downward trend on the weekly chart below. Since peaking out at 149.78 in December of 2014, the EUR/JPY has been in a bearish trend. The low was hit at 109.48 this June, post-Bre…
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fxsurprise8 30 Set

So far my forecast has been generally correct but prices are still far from my target. Let me explain. In September the EUR/JPY hit a high of 116.07 and a low of 112.07.

But those extremes don't tell the whole story. Most of the month the EUR/JPY spent in the middle of this range. We're currently quoted at 113.69, close to the 50% mark.

Unfortunately due to large selling on two days this month (September 20th and 21st) the neutral point has shifted somewhat lower and for the past week we've been drudging along in this 113-114 range. I will need the pair to rally to bring me close to target.

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Pointless Volatility in the Yen

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Lug as Analysis on EUR/JPY, Target: 114.30, Date: 1 di Settembre, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR #JPY #EUR/JPY #Japan #Volatility #Boj #Japanese Yen #Brexit
The EUR/JPY experienced massive volatility during the past 2 months. First Brexit then the highly anticipated July BOJ meeting ricked prices up/down. Perhaps surprisingly however, we're currently quoted right above the 50% Fib retracement of the most recent high/low.
This to me signals that the market is undecided here.The 50% Fib at 113.97 and the 114 round figure should support prices.But the weekly trend is strongly down as can be seen on the chart below. Meanwhile the daily and 4H are more m…
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fxsurprise8 31 Ago

With a monthly high to low range of only 260 pips and a open to close move of 65 pips, my forecast is proving to be correct.

We're now quoted at 114.91 so overshooting my target by a bit. But I think that the closeness of the major round level at 115.00 and the 38% Fib at 115.03 (see pic 1 above) will put a lid on prices, at least in the short-term.

And like I mentioned in my original post, on the other end the 50% Fib at 113.97 and the 114 round figure should support prices.

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USD/JPY in for a Strong Rally

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Mag as Analysis on USD/JPY, Target: 115.79, Date: 1 di Luglio, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #JPY #USD/JPY #Rally #Japanese Yen #Uptrend #JPY Weakness #Japanese Recovery #Triple Bottom
The USD/JPY could be in for a strong rally. The pair closed May on a high note, currently at 110.66 from a high of 111.44 yesterday. The daily chart below shows just how consistent this uptrend has been. Notice the nice stair-step climb with little retracement.
Things are looking bullish on the long-term charts as well. Here the USD/JPY has been in a strong uptrend since the end of 2012. In fact the past few months of losses are the exception not the rule. With both the long-term and short-term …
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More Losses for the USD/JPY

fxsurprise8 Posted 30 Apr as Analysis on USD/JPY, Target: 102.11, Date: 1 di Giugno, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #JPY #Trend #USD/JPY #Price Action #Japanese Yen #Momentum #Downtrend #Doji
Last month we saw a doji pattern in the USD/JPY. This is usually an indecision pattern. But in this case the Doji has been followed by a large red bar. This breaks the stalemate and potentially signals that more losses are to come.
On the lower 4 hour timefame we can see that the pair has fallen by over 500 pips in the last two days alone. So not only do we have the medium-term trend heading down but so is the momentum.
The average monthly range for the USD/JPY is 479 pips but this of course is …
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