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As expected the market didn't disappointed us in terms of the volatility it has generated so far through the last month of the year, but the only disappointment was in the fact that the ECB has failed us all in meeting market expectation and delivering on his promises. There're going to be a lot of event risks through the end of the year but above all the most anticipated without a doubt is the Fed rate decision which as per market expectation and the Fed fund futures there is a 80% probability …
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Prepearing the Week Ahead
Definitely the week ahead is shaping out to be pivotal in determining whether or not the movements started last week are genuine and we're going to see some follow through or the market will complete reverse and go the other way. The Economic calendar looks quite heavy this week as we have Fed rate decision which as per market expectation should be a predictable event in the sense that Fed will hold monetary policy.
On the other side of the monetary policy spectrum we have BOJ which many are spe…
On the other side of the monetary policy spectrum we have BOJ which many are spe…
Have No Fear Daytrader21 Is Still Here:)
Last 48 hours have been very intense in the financial markets as everyone on this planet was waiting for the FED to deliver its monetary policy. As expected the FED kept on hold its monetary policy keeping the rates for another month at historical low levels. Now, that's not a new story, however they way Fed has decided to handle this decision is utterly BS as they have prepared the market for such a long time for a rate hike and now they keep delaying it and there are strong speculation they th…
The Terminus Point
Today is the one of the biggest day that we have seen recently as the Fed can either move towards normalizing interest rates or it can choose to keep them at historical low level for more time. Even though my expectation is for NO change in monetary policy I'm still factoring in a 20% probability of a rate hike. I mean anything can happen but the higher probability suggest a no move today.
The other half of the equation is how the market will respond as depending on how hawkish or dovish Yellen …
The other half of the equation is how the market will respond as depending on how hawkish or dovish Yellen …
FED Timing the Rate Hike
When it comes to monetary policy among developed economies, FED is the most hawkish central bank and today's FOMC meeting will reinforce that stance. However this hawkishness is already price in and the market is already expecting a rate hike but the timing of the rate hike is what the market focus is right now. A rate hike today is out of cards as the market probability for a NO rate hike is 98%. Even though few months back my assessment was for Jun rate hike following the 2004 template, many t…
AUD/CAD - Short Position Explained
My first trade for this month was shorting AUD/CAD which in the end ended up to be a break-even trade. I didn't even realized I'm trading an aussie crosses because I was expecting AUD/USD to react positively on the RBA rate decision and thus all the other crosses will react, more or less, AUD positively. But since I overlooked this thing I entered short on AUD/CAD based on a small retest of an old support now turning resistance (see Figure 1).
My forecas…
Figure 1. AUD/CAD 1h Chart
My forecas…
RBA Cut Rates
As per my expectations RBA has indeed pulled the trigger and cut the main interest rates by 0.25% to 2.00%. I have been warning of the high probability of an cut in my recent post here: Preparing the Week Ahead However despite this move from RBA, the market reaction was not as per my expectations as I was looking for more downside.
I only may guess that the market was heavily short and the rate cut was already price in by the market, so we got a short squeeze. In this regard I can see th…
I only may guess that the market was heavily short and the rate cut was already price in by the market, so we got a short squeeze. In this regard I can see th…
Us Dollar Macro and Technical View
The US Dollar has been on the spotlight since beginning of the year as momentum has surprised everyone. Retracements continue to be shallow. The dollar bullish trend is well mature on its own and I thought it's the perfect time to reinforce my view on the dollar as many are asking: what's next for the US Dollar?
This is the US dollar's fastest rise in 40 years, and the US Dollar was up on one point 14% on this year alone, and I was one of the few to speak about the dollar rally, e…
This is the US dollar's fastest rise in 40 years, and the US Dollar was up on one point 14% on this year alone, and I was one of the few to speak about the dollar rally, e…
RBA Set to Cut Rates
First major event risk of the week is set to be RBA interest rate decision. Last time I was correctly predicting a no move from RBZ, basing my decision on the inter banking futures rates which have been predicted 24 of the last 25 RBA decisions correctly. The OIS market is pricing in an 80% chance of a cut in April.
You can read more about it here: RBA Keeps Rates on Hold
When you have an indicator with such a high level of accuracy it's undoubtedly mistakenly to ignore it. Both the, aussie 9…
You can read more about it here: RBA Keeps Rates on Hold
When you have an indicator with such a high level of accuracy it's undoubtedly mistakenly to ignore it. Both the, aussie 9…
Be "Patience" over the FOMC
The top piece of event risk this week is right ahead of us, and that is FOMC rate decision and the post-announcement press conference from Fed chair Yellen.
Today's FOMC decision it will have
broad implication on different assets classes. It's quite important to remember ourselves that this is not just about the rate decision but there are also other elements attached to this which is the
updated forecasts for growth, inflation, employment.
It's quite weird that the FOMC announcement has come d…
Today's FOMC decision it will have
broad implication on different assets classes. It's quite important to remember ourselves that this is not just about the rate decision but there are also other elements attached to this which is the
updated forecasts for growth, inflation, employment.
It's quite weird that the FOMC announcement has come d…