AdamFx42のブログ

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Going long GBP too soon

I was long Gbp too soon today after interest rate decision
The rate remained unchanged as expected
but the surprise was that two more members were in favor of a rate hike
this made the vote 5-3, instead of the expected 7-1 to hold rate
Gbp moved up on the surprise and looked steady
so I joined the market longs
Gbp took a dive down though, just now, I should have expected this retracement
Initial support did not hold, so I closed my longs - losing about 60K
I had already lost 20K lat night on Nzd…
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Important data releases today

Two important data releases are planned this evening
At 18:00 GMT, we have the FOMC interest rate decision and statement
At 21:00 GMT we have the NZ interest rate decision
I am tempted to go long Usd, but I am still looking for a nice entry point -
just above 110 in UsdJpy would be good ..
I don't think there will be a surprise cut for the Nzd this month,
but there are enough signs of Dovish talk to follow in the statement
so I think shorting Nzd will be relatively safe - I will be looking to sh…
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USDJpy higher ahead of interest rate decision

I missed the opportunity to go long UsdJpy yesterday
The pair was down to the 112,7 level yesterday
and offered a good opportunity for longs before the interest rate decision today
The US said it would raise rates four times this year
and although traders do not believe it will be actually no more than two raises
they are uncertain and are positioning themselves long from lower levels - just in case
To trade the release itself is more difficult
but I will be keeping an eye on support and resista…
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Leaving the Euro for what it is

The Greek problem seems like it is going to drag on foreever
So, I am staying out of any Eur trades for now
I, like a lot of traders, have no idea any more what way Eur/Usd is heading
When markets open again I will be concentrating on buying Aud,
the RBA interest decision is Tuesday morning
and most banks believe the interest rate will be left on hold
Aud/Usd is very low at the moment
and I see a cause for longs Aud/Usd targeting (maybe) 0.78 and higher
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GBP could rally today

Gbp/Usd could rally in just over an hour
The pair has shown us some big swings the last few days
and is looking for a direction,
the interest rate decision that is coming up could be a catalyst for that direction,
the rate will probably stay on hold,
but signs of a stronger economy may push the pair towards 1.5 today
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AdamFx42 2015年04月10日

wrong
:-(

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