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Preparing The Week Ahead

Daytrader21 Publicado 13 Sep  en #Trader's blog #Fed #Interest Rate
Coming week is for sure one that can generate some volatility as we have Fed announcing the interest rate decision. Even thought I'm not expecting the Fed to start hiking rates this meeting it will be the one to watch as it will give serious hints of a possible move later this year.
I'm not sure if I really want to take any position ahead of the FED meeting unless I really have strong conviction about my trades so I'll be waiting to see how the market will be opening and see if there is any clea…
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NFP - Downplaying Fed Rate Hike

Daytrader21 Publicado 4 Sep  en #Trader's blog #Nfp #Fed #Interest Rate
Now that the NFP report has come out of line with market expectation the Fed rate hike expectation has also been downgraded, which means that we can forget the rate hike at this month FOMC meeting. This is also in line with my own expectation as I think FED is waiting for the December meeting. This is Deja Vu, as FED has been following the same steps before starting to taper and they start the tapering process in Dec 2014 so the first rate hike in Dec 2015 is 100% in cards unless it's the end of…
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NFP - The State of US Labor Market

Daytrader21 Actualizado 2 Jul  en #Trader's blog #Nfp #Fed #Interest Rate #Unemployment Rate #Labor Market #4Th Of July
Due to the 4th of July US holiday, the NFP report will be release 1 day earlier and not the usual first Friday of the month.
The market forecast for today's reading has quite a big rage starting from as low as 231k to as high as 270k down from previous reading of 280k. The only thing stable and where there is a consensus is for the unemployment rate to drop from 5.4% down from 5.5%.
Despite the recent global turmoil the US job market is quite strong as over the past months we had 15th times rea…
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1980-1985 US Dollar Analog

Daytrader21 Publicado 11 May  en #Trader's blog #Fibonacci #Us Dollar #Interest Rate #Accumulation #Analog
Since I didn't had enough space to cover this matters on my US Dollar Macro and Technical view article, which you can find it here: US Dollar Macro and Technical
I thought to add a few more notes on what I'm looking when it comes to the US Dollar cycle. The 1980-1985 US Dollar analog has served as map to price action since the beginning of this rally(see Figure 1) If we measure the Fibonacci retracement from the index's secular peak in 1985 we can see that we didn't even touched the 38.2 fi…
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guilhemch avatar
guilhemch 11 May

Thank you that was interesting!! I also have a sentiment that the USD bullish wave is not done especially vs the JPY.

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Daytrader21 11 May

guilhemch Also EUR/USD has to go below parity in coming years so there is plenty of room for it to go down

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What To Expect For FOMC Minutes

Daytrader21 Publicado 9 Jul  en #Trader's blog #Yellen #Interest Rate #Fomc Minutes #Mario Draghi #Dovish
Beside the fact that the main risk event for today is definitely the FOMC minutes we also have Mario Draghi speaking lately today. When it comes to the ECB there are different opinions in regards with what will trigger ECB QE. Some members see QE only in an "emergency situation" and others say "ready to take any actions that may prove necessary should downside risks further materialise" like Noyer.
When it comes to FOMC minutes I'm not expecting any market-moving comments coming from Yellen's sp…
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ECB - Interest Rate Decision

Daytrader21 Publicado 3 Dic  en #Trader's blog #Ecb #EUR/USD #Interest Rate #Taper
Probably the most anticipating news for euro this week is Thursday's ECB interest rate decision. Despite recent interest cut and negative rates rhetoric EUR/USD has been quite strong if you take in consideration those 2 arguments, and that's mainly due to better than expected German data. Also technically speaking the 1.3300 level has been limiting the downside, and coincidence or not that's the level from where we had that massive rally after the NO taper decision. As long as there are no clea…
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