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U.S. dollar gained strongly in the past three trading days. AUD/USD traded to the lowest level this year after unimpressive CPI inflation report. The spike lower was a very short term one though as the pair bounced from the bottom of the three-month channel near 0.7575. Broken support level near 0.7625 should provide some resistance.
al_dcdemo's Blog
Aussie falls further after weak inflation report
A weaker than expected inflation report sent Aussie to a new low yesterday. Today's comments by RBA's Debelle were seen as dovish, particularly the one that CPI was overstated by around 0.25% ahead of yearly reweighting of the index.
The pair is currently stalling just above the strong support area that includes 2016 - 2017 (previous) resistance, 200 DMA and 0.77 big figure level. If the area gives way, 0.75 will come into focus. 0.7730 - 0.7750 is the initial resistance.
The pair is currently stalling just above the strong support area that includes 2016 - 2017 (previous) resistance, 200 DMA and 0.77 big figure level. If the area gives way, 0.75 will come into focus. 0.7730 - 0.7750 is the initial resistance.
Kiwi jumps on solid inflation report but pares all gains
New Zealand dollar spiked on better than expected inflation report (1.9% year-over-year) overnight but pared all gains in subsequent hours as RBNZ's own inflation measure showed just 1.4%. We are still waiting for Winston Peters to decide which coalition his party will join.
Kiwi traders have been understandably cautious after 150-pip rally from the lows near 0.7050. 0.72 is the initial hurdle on the way to 0.73 - 0.7350 resistance area. 200 DMA near 0.7150 is the immediate support ahead of a st…
Kiwi traders have been understandably cautious after 150-pip rally from the lows near 0.7050. 0.72 is the initial hurdle on the way to 0.73 - 0.7350 resistance area. 200 DMA near 0.7150 is the immediate support ahead of a st…
Kiwi rallies on a firm inflation report
Kiwi jumped about 40 pips on the release of better than expected quarterly inflation report. CPI (YoY) rose above RBNZ target band mid-point (2.0%) for the first time in five years. The bank previously warned that a rise in inflation could be temporary.
The pair is trading near the bottom of the two-year channel. Shorter-term, it looks solid in the upper part of the 0.69 - 0.71 range, which may be extended to the upside in the weeks ahead. 0.7130 (February lows, 200 DMA) looks like a strong resi…
The pair is trading near the bottom of the two-year channel. Shorter-term, it looks solid in the upper part of the 0.69 - 0.71 range, which may be extended to the upside in the weeks ahead. 0.7130 (February lows, 200 DMA) looks like a strong resi…
Aussie turns lower
Aussie lost about 85 pips yesterday with a daily range of 115 pips. Most losses came in Asian session after the release of dovish monetary policy meeting minutes. Australian inflation report next week will be a big one and will likely determine whether the RBA will cut cash rate in August.
The decline stalled near 0.75, reinforced by 100 DMA just below. A convincing break of the support could send the pair to 0.74 (50 DMA) and then 0.73 (June lows, 200 DMA). 0.7550 may now act as a resistance.
The decline stalled near 0.75, reinforced by 100 DMA just below. A convincing break of the support could send the pair to 0.74 (50 DMA) and then 0.73 (June lows, 200 DMA). 0.7550 may now act as a resistance.
Aussie tumbles on weak inflation
Aussie tumbled overnight after much weaker than expected quarterly inflation report which, among other things, showed Trimmed Mean CPI (YoY) falling below RBA's target band of 2.0% - 3.0%. Expectations for a rate cut by the bank next week surged.
The pair lost 150+ pips since the release and seems to be making a short-term bottom ahead of 23.6% retracement of the January - April rally. 50 DMA is the next stronger support level and then 0.7450 - 0.75 band. 0.7650 - 0.77 likely becomes a sell zone…
The pair lost 150+ pips since the release and seems to be making a short-term bottom ahead of 23.6% retracement of the January - April rally. 50 DMA is the next stronger support level and then 0.7450 - 0.75 band. 0.7650 - 0.77 likely becomes a sell zone…
Cable still ranging
Cable has been range-bound between 1.40 and 1.45 for the most of the past month and a half with price spending most of the time within inner, 1.41 - 1.44, range. If we exclude late February / early March dip, the pair has been carving out a declining wedge since mid January.
Helped by better than expected inflation report the pair surged to 1.4350 but then reversed and is now back under 50 DMA which is running at the midpoint of the aforementioned range. I expect the pair to stay in this mode fo…
Helped by better than expected inflation report the pair surged to 1.4350 but then reversed and is now back under 50 DMA which is running at the midpoint of the aforementioned range. I expect the pair to stay in this mode fo…
Cable turns down
Cable fell more than 200 pips yesterday after weaker than expected inflation report. Monthly jobs and wages report, released earlier today, came out slightly better than expected and that prompted a brief relief rally as shorts covered some. The pair ended the day near unchanged.
A weekly close below 2010 low (~1.4225) would likely mean a retest of January low (~1.4075) and possibly 1.40 big figure level. 1.44 seems like a decent resistance ahead of 1.45 and 50 DMA.
A weekly close below 2010 low (~1.4225) would likely mean a retest of January low (~1.4075) and possibly 1.40 big figure level. 1.44 seems like a decent resistance ahead of 1.45 and 50 DMA.
Cable steady as "Super Thursday" meeting looms
BOE will unveil their latest stance on monetary policy and view/outlook on U.K. economy at the second "Super Thursday" meeting, which features interest rate decision and voting, monetary policy statement, inflation report and a press conference. It will all begin at 12:00 GMT.
Given importance of this quarterly event, potential for volatility is great. First stronger support is seen near 1.5350 (50 DMA, 200 DMA) and then 1.5250 (Previous Week Low). Some resistance may come in ahead of 1.5450 (Pr…
Given importance of this quarterly event, potential for volatility is great. First stronger support is seen near 1.5350 (50 DMA, 200 DMA) and then 1.5250 (Previous Week Low). Some resistance may come in ahead of 1.5450 (Pr…
Aussie sells off on weak inflation report
Aussie fell nearly a cent overnight, on the back of weaker than expected inflation report. The report came out weaker on all measures and prompted some speculation about next week's RBA rate cut.
CPI (QoQ): 0.5% vs. 0.6% expected, 0.7% previous
CPI (YoY): 1.5% vs. 1.7% expected, 1.5% previous
Trimmed Mean CPI (QoQ): 0.3% vs. 0.5% expected, 0.6% previous
Trimmed Mean CPI (YoY): 2.1% vs. 2.4% expected, 2.2% previous
Weighted mean CPI (YoY): 2.2% vs. 2.5% expected, 2.4% previous
Weighted mean CPI (…
CPI (QoQ): 0.5% vs. 0.6% expected, 0.7% previous
CPI (YoY): 1.5% vs. 1.7% expected, 1.5% previous
Trimmed Mean CPI (QoQ): 0.3% vs. 0.5% expected, 0.6% previous
Trimmed Mean CPI (YoY): 2.1% vs. 2.4% expected, 2.2% previous
Weighted mean CPI (YoY): 2.2% vs. 2.5% expected, 2.4% previous
Weighted mean CPI (…