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NZD/USD jumped some 50 pips in the morning after RBNZ's measure of core inflation came in at a 7-year high. That came after official inflation data for the second quarter showed a slight miss on expectations, but still solid. NZD/USD rallied off of 0.67 area twice but further upside won't come easy without RBNZ moving into hawkish direction.
al_dcdemo's Blog
AUD/USD bought after not-so-dovish RBA
It's been almost two years since RBA last adjusted its cash rate. The rate remains at 1.50% after today's meeting and probably will for some time to come. Their outlook hasn't changed much. They're still expecting wages and inflation to pick up. Main risks being international trade wars, (lack of) domestic household consumption and debt levels. AUD/USD is up about 50 pips since the release, after not-so-dovish message by the bank.
USD/JPY drops on the BOJ decision, then recovers
BOJ kept the monetary policy unchanged at this meeting. The bank admitted that inflation is (slowly) rising towards the target of 2.0% and bumped up inflation expectations outlook in quarterly report. USD/JPY dropped about 30 pips but has since recovered. 110 - 110.25 is the area to watch on the downside and 111.50 on the upside.
U.S. dollar weakens ahead of holiday
FOMC Minutes highlighted the division among officials on inflation outlook, though majority still think inflation will ultimately pick up. December hike is virtually a done deal but what comes after that will increasingly hinge on inflation progress. U.S. dollar was sold ahead of and after the release.
U.S. dollar falls after inflation and retail sales reports
Earlier today a combo of U.S. inflation and retail sales reports for September was published. Inflation indicators came in somewhat weaker than expected but mostly higher than in August while retail sales were better than expected.
Market focus was on inflation and initial reaction was to sell the U.S. dollar. Moves stalled after 50 - 70 pips and later reversed to various extents across U.S. dollar pairs as traders digested otherwise solid reports. The dollar is closing the week lower against al…
Market focus was on inflation and initial reaction was to sell the U.S. dollar. Moves stalled after 50 - 70 pips and later reversed to various extents across U.S. dollar pairs as traders digested otherwise solid reports. The dollar is closing the week lower against al…
FOMC Minutes seen as mildly dovish
As expected, there was nothing shocking in the Minutes of the FOMC meeting that concluded on September 20th. Division between those who believe that inflation is low due to transitory factors and those who think it's just a new normal, is nothing new but the market seemed to take this as a mildly dovish sign.
U.S. dollar has already been weakening this week and, after a minor whipsaw, prices just continued on the path of least resistance. December hike from the Fed is pretty much priced in at th…
U.S. dollar has already been weakening this week and, after a minor whipsaw, prices just continued on the path of least resistance. December hike from the Fed is pretty much priced in at th…
Kiwi finds equilibrium near 0.73
Kiwi has been in sideways mode during the last couple of weeks. RBNZ last said that monetary policy will remain accommodative for a considerable period. However, signs of sustained inflation could change the bank's outlook and prompt sooner tightening.
Relative absence of data from New Zealand in the weeks ahead means that the current mode with continued slow drift higher may be the most likely scenario. 0.72 - 0.7250 is the range support and 0.7350 - 0.74 is the resistance.
Relative absence of data from New Zealand in the weeks ahead means that the current mode with continued slow drift higher may be the most likely scenario. 0.72 - 0.7250 is the range support and 0.7350 - 0.74 is the resistance.
Kiwi jumps on upbeat RBNZ
RBNZ held the official cash rate at 1.75%. Rate statement was little changed. Both wages and inflation are expected to increase gradually. Monetary policy is to remain accommodative for a considerable period. Comment on New Zealand dollar was softer than many expected.
Kiwi jumped about half a cent after the release and stabilized near 0.725 in following hours. Month's high near 0.7325 is the next target and then year's high at 0.7375. Strong support area at 0.7175 - 0.72 should continue to hold…
Kiwi jumped about half a cent after the release and stabilized near 0.725 in following hours. Month's high near 0.7325 is the next target and then year's high at 0.7375. Strong support area at 0.7175 - 0.72 should continue to hold…
U.S. dollar recovers after hawkish FOMC decision
Fed's FOMC was surprisingly hawkish yesterday. They hiked federal funds rate by 25 basis points, as expected, and outlined strategy for reducing their balance sheet. FOMC chair Yellen told reporters that the balance sheet adjustment could begin "relatively soon".
Just a couple of hours before the FOMC decision, both inflation and retail sales reports came in weak and markets sold U.S. dollar on speculation that the FOMC will postpone hiking until data improves. The dollar recovered and followed …
Just a couple of hours before the FOMC decision, both inflation and retail sales reports came in weak and markets sold U.S. dollar on speculation that the FOMC will postpone hiking until data improves. The dollar recovered and followed …
EURo remains supported amid political uncertainty
Headline inflation has gone up and, if core follows, there will be little excuse for the ECB to stick with the easiest policy on record. Political uncertainty in the U.S. has overshadowed political risks in Europe. That makes the current correction deeper than expected by many.
Since bottoming at 1.0350 at the start of the year, the pair has risen nearly five cents. 100 DMA is immediate resistance before the long-term trendline zone, reinforced by 200 DMA, near 1.10. 50 DMA is the first stronger…
Since bottoming at 1.0350 at the start of the year, the pair has risen nearly five cents. 100 DMA is immediate resistance before the long-term trendline zone, reinforced by 200 DMA, near 1.10. 50 DMA is the first stronger…