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NZD/USD to revisit range bottom in March

al_dcdemo 投稿日: 2016年02月28日。分析予想通貨ペア:NZD/USD, 予想レート: 0.6375, 予想日: 1日4月, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Daily Chart #NZD/USD #Indecision #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Dovish Rbnz #Neutral Net Positioning #Broad Trading Range
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
The pair bottomed in August 2015 and has since been contained in a broad trading range between 0.60 and 0.70. It has spent most of the time in the …
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al_dcdemo 2016年03月10日

UPDATE 5: In an (un)surprising move, RBNZ cut the official cash rate to 2.25% from 2.50% and hinted on additional cuts which will depend on data. Reasons for the cut are weak global growth outlook, high exchange rate and declining inflation expectations. Technically, the bank prevented Kiwi from rising above October and December highs, at least for now. After 150 pip fall, the pair is stalling ahead of confluence of 50, 100 and 200 DMA. 0.65 - 0.6550 is the next stronger support band to watch.

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al_dcdemo 2016年03月19日

UPDATE 6: Surprisingly dovish FOMC spurred a U.S. dollar sell-off in which commodity currencies benefited the most. Kiwi so far gained about two cents. It also had a positive effect on U.S. stocks with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones indices turning positive on the year. Given that the next candidate meeting for raising rates is not before June and even raising then is under question, the current U.S. dollar pullback is set to continue.

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al_dcdemo 2016年03月25日

UPDATE 7: Good Friday and Easter Monday holidays will make this weekend four days long instead of usual two days. Even though U.S. will resume trading on Monday, full participation is not expected until Tuesday. We've already been witnessing low liquidity and volatility. Both shall remain on low levels during this period, though there's always a possibility of a sharp move in such conditions.

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al_dcdemo 2016年03月30日

UPDATE 8: Remarks in the speech by the Fed governor Janet Yellen sparked a dollar sell-off across the board. Recent hawkish tones by a number of Fed speakers had markets expecting something a bit less dovish than the latest FOMC statement. The winner of the day was the Kiwi, which rose 80 pips before the event and about 70 pips afterwards. We can expect some buy stops to be triggered at and above 0.69 but probably plenty of new supply into 0.70.

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al_dcdemo 2016年03月31日

UPDATE 9: Tomorrow is NFP day and, following recent dovish turn by the Fed, I would expect more U.S. dollar losses on a weaker than expected report than gains on better than expected report. If I'd have to guess, I'd say we would get overall slightly better than expected report. Price action would depend on the pair, but would probably involve taking out stops on both sides with the dollar ending up near unchanged on the day.

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NZD/USD to continue floating

al_dcdemo 投稿日: 2015年03月31日。分析予想通貨ペア:NZD/USD, 予想レート: 0.7637, 予想日: 1日5月, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Consolidation #NZD/USD #Kiwi #Range #Bullish Bias #Rbnz #Indecision #Shooting Star #Neutral Stance
Monthly chart:
In January, the pair has busted 100 month SMA, 38.2% retracement of 2009 to 2011 uptrend and the low of the 2011 - 2014 trading range around 0.7350. February and March were more or less range-bound. Support is now firmly established at 0.7175 with more at 0.70 level and 50.0% retracement (of 2009 to 2011 uptrend) at 0.6868. March candle signals indecision and direction is not clear at the moment.
Weekly chart:
The pair mostly traded in 0.7175 - 0.7600 range in February and March.…
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al_dcdemo 2015年04月19日

UPDATE 6: New Zealand CPI report will be released early on Monday but even if it comes out weaker than expected, the dip will likely be bought into as commodity weakness is still regarded as temporary. Provided that the Dollar pullback continues, any declines should not extend past 50 and 100 DMA, which are serving as an additional level of support below 0.76. On the topside, 200 DMA shall offer decent resistance.

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al_dcdemo 2015年04月25日

UPDATE 7: Kiwi was the laggard among major pairs in the past week but still has lost only about a cent. Weak CPI report, RBNZ jawboning and option expires were cited as the main culprits for the decline. Even though it closed the week (just) below pivotal 0.76 level, it still managed to preserve foothold above 50 and 100 DMA, so the technical picture doesn't look bearish at all.

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al_dcdemo 2015年04月26日

UPDATE 8: There's quite a few important US, NZ and Chinese data releases in the week ahead that may impact the pair but the main events are RBNZ (Official Cash Rate and Rate Statement) and FOMC, both on Wednesday. Technically, the pair is right in the middle of 7-month trading range. It is contained by 50 and 100 DMA on the downside and 200 DMA on the upside. Whichever side will give way first, will likely determine direction for the next leg.

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al_dcdemo 2015年04月30日

UPDATE 9: The pair fell in the early Asian session today, after RBNZ adopted conditional dovish stance. As widely expected, they have also talked the currency down, but its questionable if and to what extent this kind of "jawboning" works in current weaker Dollar environment. The pair is holding 0.76 pretty well and if there won't be any significant month-end flows overnight, it will most likely close the week above the level.

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al_dcdemo 2015年05月01日

UPDATE 10: If it weren't for New Zealand finance minister English comments overnight in which he "invited" RBNZ to ease monetary policy, the pair would most likely held above 0.76 level. It didn't fell much though and there wasn't any follow-through on that in European session. The pair ends forecast period roughly 50 pips below the target, which I'm quite happy about, even more so because the pair nicely conformed to the prediction outline.

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