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EURo to pull back after some further gains

al_dcdemo Posted 22 May as Analysis on EUR/USD, Target: 1.1075, Date: 3rd of July, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Daily Chart #EUR/USD #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Long Term Trendline #Net Long Positioning #Improved Fundamentals #Breakaway Gap
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
The pair convincingly broke below the long term trendline drawn off of 1985 and 2000 lows in Q4 2016. In the process, the pair extended the 1.05 - 1…
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al_dcdemo 12 June

UPDATE 6: ECB acted as expected last week and removed phrase "or lower" from the line "interest rates to remain at present or lower levels for an extended period of time". The bank remains cautious as they lowered growth and inflation forecasts for the year. The market expected a little bit more hawkishness from them and subsequently sold off. Dip buyers have been quick to step in however and push the pair back above 1.12. 1.11 - 1.115 should hold if this rally is to continue. 1.13 is the next target.

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al_dcdemo 15 June

UPDATE 7: Fed's FOMC was surprisingly hawkish yesterday. They hiked federal funds rate by 25 basis points, as expected, and outlined strategy for reducing their balance sheet. FOMC chair Yellen told reporters that the balance sheet adjustment could begin "relatively soon". Just a couple of hours before the FOMC decision, both inflation and retail sales reports came in weak and markets sold U.S. dollar on speculation that the FOMC will postpone hiking until data improves. The dollar recovered and followed through today.

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al_dcdemo 20 June

UPDATE 8: Euro traded to a new seven-month high last week after weak U.S. inflation and retail sales data. The spike was reversed few hours later on hawkish FOMC decision. PMI data at the end of the week will be closely watched by market participants. The pair has been trading sideways for about a month. December - May channel top, late May low and 1.11 big figure level combine to a strong support area, followed by 1.10 - 1.1050 (early May high, 50 DMA). 1.13 remains a formidable upside barrier.

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al_dcdemo 24 June

UPDATE 9: Currency markets were relatively sedate this week. Major pairs traded in 100-pip ranges with the exception of Cable whose range exceeded 200 pips. With no big events on the agenda until September, it's possible that we'll be seeing somewhat slower activity throughout the summer. That said, there's always opportunity in at least some pairs and timeframes, and we must always expect the unexpected. Central bank speakers will continue to dominate in the week ahead and markets will be positioning for their next moves in the coming weeks.

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al_dcdemo 28 June

UPDATE 10: ECB president Mario Draghi yesterday said: "While there are still factors that are weighing on the path of inflation, at present they are mainly temporary factors that typically the central bank can look through". That's hawkish from him and Euro bulls needed no excuse to took the pair 150 pips higher by the end of the day. The pair finally broke above U.S. election high (1.13) and extended gains to the highest level in a year. Pre-Brexit high (1.1430) is the next target and then last year's high near 1.1615. Broken 1.13 level should now offer some decent support.

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EURo to trade above 1.10 in May

al_dcdemo Posted 24 Apr. as Analysis on EUR/USD, Target: 1.1075, Date: 1st of June, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Daily Chart #EUR/USD #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #50 Day Sma #Long Term Trendline #Net Short Positioning #Improved Fundamentals
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
The pair convincingly broke below the long term trendline drawn off of 1985 and 2000 lows. In the process, the pair extended the 1.05 - 1.15 range t…
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al_dcdemo 8 May

UPDATE 5: Emmanuel Macron is the next French president. His winning by a wider than expected margin and also Merkel's success at state election in Germany led to a small gap higher at the open. Higher prices were not sustained and sell-the-fact trade ensued. Pulling back about 70 pips from the overnight high, EUR/USD is now firmly back below 1.10. 1.095 is the immediate support, followed by 1.09 and stronger one between 1.083 and 1.085. 1.10 should continue to act as a resistance until convincingly broken.

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al_dcdemo 14 May

UPDATE 6: Expected result of the French election spurred a pullback in euro and franc and, to a lesser extent, yen. U.S. dollar indisputably won the week, rising against all G10 currencies. Weaker than expected inflation and retail sales reports on Friday led to some profit taking but June rate hike expectations hardly budged. Some further reaction to the reports is possible in the days ahead. Following a neutral BOE QIR, U.K. data will be closely watched next week. Australian labour force report and Canadian inflation and retail sales are also at the top of the list.

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al_dcdemo 21 May

UPDATE 7: In what was its worst week of the year, U.S. dollar lost ground against all G10 currencies. Already soft start to the week after last Friday's inflation and retail sales reports was exacerbated by the political drama in the U.S. that has further shaken traders' confidence that the Administration will be able to deliver on its stimulus promises in due time. The biggest winners were euro and franc with Canadian dollar and pound not far behind. U.S. dollar index fell to the levels not seen since the U.S. election and closed the week near the low.

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al_dcdemo 25 May

UPDATE 8: As expected, FOMC meeting minutes didn't reveal anything particularly new. Weak Q1 GDP was dismissed in favour of strong employment growth. There was some caution regarding inflation by some members but was not a baseline view. The committee also discussed balance sheet reduction which can be seen as a hawkish development. Minutes are basically data two weeks old and the market responded with U.S. dollar selling. It is Fed speakers and how they will shape expectations for a June hike that the market is focused on.

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al_dcdemo 29 May

UPDATE 9: Last week was a relief for the U.S. dollar as it managed to rise, albeit marginally, against euro, franc, yen, and Australian dollar. Pound sold off after election polls showed PM May lost some support. Canadian dollar capitalized on oil strength, even though OPEC didn't go out on a limb this time around. New Zealand dollar continued its snap-back after bottoming near 0.685. European flash CPI and U.S. NFP report will be two events that the market will closely watch this week. Both have the potential to shape upcoming ECB and Fed decisions.

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EURo to test 1.10 in April

al_dcdemo Posted 25 Mar. as Analysis on EUR/USD, Target: 1.0925, Date: 1st of May, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Daily Chart #EUR/USD #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #50 Day Sma #Long Term Trendline #Net Short Positioning #Improved Fundamentals
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
The pair convincingly broke below the long term trendline drawn off of 1985 and 2000 lows. In the process, the pair extended the 1.05 - 1.15 range t…
Read full story
Translate to English Show original

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al_dcdemo 17 Apr.

UPDATE 7: Better than expected Chinese data, that was released overnight, hasn't had a great impact but it did contribute to a slightly better risk sentiment. Australian and New Zealand dollars remain in a near-term uptrend while yen put in at least a temporary top. A quiet European session is the most likely scenario with main financial centers closed for Easter Monday. Some more activity is possible in N.A. session but many participants will prefer not to involve until tomorrow. That does not rule out a surprise move though.

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al_dcdemo 23 Apr.

UPDATE 8: U.S. dollar recorded a mixed last week. It rose against yen, Canadian dollar and Australian dollar but fell against euro, franc, sterling and New Zealand dollar. The moves didn't have a lot to do with the U.S. itself but happened against a backdrop of unwinding of the Trump trade. Focus will be on Europe in the week ahead with French election 1st round results to start with and then the ECB meeting on Thursday. Advance version of the U.S. GDP on Friday will be an important data point to watch while the BOJ is not likely to stray from its course.

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al_dcdemo 24 Apr.

UPDATE 9: Emmanuel Macron (23.9%) and Marine Le Pen (21.4%) are the winners of the first round of the French presidental election. Pollsters did a good job this time around with the results coming in largely as expected. Euro gapped higher overnight as Macron victory remains the most likely scenario. The pair traded above 1.0930 in pre-market and opened just above 1.09, that's about 180 pips from Friday closing levels. EUR/JPY gap was even more impressive, close to 380 pips. Latest polls suggest Macron's lead has narrowed, which could lead to some further pullback in both pairs.

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al_dcdemo 30 Apr.

UPDATE 10: Story from the last week continued this week. The dollar declined against European currencies and appreciated against yen and commodity currencies. Market-friendly result of the first round of the French election didn't impact this dynamic, although better risk sentiment usually means weaker euro and franc, and stronger Aussie and Kiwi. Looking ahead, FOMC meeting may not leave us any wiser next week. After weak U.S. Q1 GDP, NFP report seems more important. Of course, all eyes will be on French election polls to see whether Le Pen could gain any ground.

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al_dcdemo 1 May

UPDATE 11: Euro has been carving out a triangle-like consolidation pattern on intraday timeframes since the first round of the French election. This is usually a continuation pattern. Much better than expected inflation report last week also supports the bullish bias. A failure of the pattern would begin filling the post-election gap but stronger demand would likely start coming in below 1.08. Price path during the forecast period was was not as steep as I predicted but I was quite accurate with the price forecast, as it ended up about 20 pips from the target.

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