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NZD/USD to remain bid into new year

al_dcdemo Posted 30 Dic as Analysis on NZD/USD, Target: 0.6775, Date: 1 di Febbraio, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #NZD/USD #Bullish Bias #Pullback #Downtrend #Hawkish Fed #Take Off #Dovish Rbnz #Risk Off Spike #Sma Cross
Monthly chart
In January, the pair busted 100 month SMA and 38.2% retracement of the 2009 to 2011 uptrend. February, March and April were more or less range-bound, but in May the pair broke to the downside strongly in what proved to be continuation of the downtrend. In June, 0.70 and 50.0% retracement (0.6868) were convincingly broken and the pair fell to almost 0.60 by the end of August. It stalled in September and pulled back sharply in October. The pullback is the longest since the downtrend …
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al_dcdemo 9 Gen

UPDATE 4: U.S. labour market report for December came out much stronger than expected as implied by ADP Non-Farm Employment Change which was released on Wednesday. Knee-jerk was to buy the dollar but moves were quick to reverse in lower yielding currencies. A classical risk-off mode that will likely continue well into next week and perhaps beyond it, all things being equal.

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al_dcdemo 11 Gen

UPDATE 5: There was quite a lot of movement for a Monday right after the open. Moves across major pairs were similar with the dollar gaining against higher yielding currencies and losing against lower yielding ones. The moves were then more or less reversed. Kiwi opened with a small gap up but promplty lost 50 pips to 0.6510 before it then turned back up again and surged towards 0.6550. It went sideways from there.

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al_dcdemo 18 Gen

UPDATE 6: Currencies opened the week with with risk-off gaps: euro, franc and yen gained about 10 pips, pound lost a couple of pips while commodity currencies lost 20-60 pips. All gaps have been already closed as risk sentiment improved. U.S. banks will be closed today in observance of Martin Luther King Day - that means thin liquidity and tight ranges but not without a possibility of an outsized move.

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al_dcdemo 19 Gen

UPDATE 7: China released its GDP, industrial production and retail sales data overnight. All three data points slightly missed their respective estimates, which was not entirely unexpected. The numbers were not as bad as feared though and, after a brief sell-off, risk trades rebounded. Having fallen 450 pips since the beginning of the year, Kiwi is poised to close in the green for the second consecutive day and post only the third green day this year. 0.64 looks like a short-term bottom now that the pair has bounced towards 100 DMA (~0.6580) and 50 DMA (~0.6640).

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al_dcdemo 25 Gen

UPDATE 8: Major currencies opened with gaps again but this time around with smallish ones in what appears to be the quietest open so far this year. Improvement in risk sentiment seemed to come after China managed to stabilize its currency and stock market. Given the magnitude of the bounce in stocks, oil and risk sensitive currency pairs it seems that an interim bottom may be in place. However, all macroeconomic themes are still ongoing, so it may be too early to speak of a reversal.

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NZD/USD poised to gain in the weeks ahead

al_dcdemo Posted 21 Nov as Analysis on NZD/USD, Target: 0.6775, Date: 1 di Gennaio, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Consolidation #NZD/USD #Bullish Bias #Pullback #Downtrend #Hawkish Fed #Sharp Spike #Take Off #Dovish Rbnz
Monthly chart
In January, the pair busted 100 month SMA and 38.2% retracement of the 2009 to 2011 uptrend. February, March and April were more or less range-bound, but in May the pair broke to the downside strongly in what proved to be continuation of the downtrend. In June, 0.70 and 50.0% retracement (0.6868) were convincingly broken and the pair fell to almost 0.60 by the end of August. It stalled in September and then pulled back sharply in October.
Weekly chart
From late April to early July…
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al_dcdemo 29 Nov

UPDATE 5: ANZ Business Confidence and GDT Price Index are the only high impact events from New Zealand on the calendar for the week ahead. U.S. macroeconomic data includes: ISM Manufacturing PMI, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and NFP report, plus a testimony from Fed's Yellen. Technically, 50 DMA crossed above 100 DMA few days ago while 0.65 remains the most important level to keep an eye on.

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al_dcdemo 1 Dic

UPDATE 6: Kiwi continued yesterday's strength and broke above last week's range and 0.66 level that capped it on several occasions in the past three weeks. Better data from Australia and China overnight didn't do it any harm. The pair is effectively back above 50 DMA which is a part of a strong resistance (now support) zone between 0.6590 and 0.6610. Interim target is 0.6750 on the way to 0.70, ahead of which we have 200 DMA (currently ~0.6920) and a declining trendline drawn off of 2014 and 2015 highs (currently ~0.6930).

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al_dcdemo 28 Dic

UPDATE 7: This week is probably the lightest one for the year with regard to economic data and certainly the most holiday-packed. There's nothing on the calendar from New Zealand while Chinese Manufacturing PMI will most likely produce little to no impact. U.S. will publish CB Consumer Confidence, Unemployment Claims and Chicago PMI, which may contribute to some volatility in these thin conditions.

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al_dcdemo 29 Dic

UPDATE 8: Last two weeks of a year are known to be the quietest in most markets. Low participation means low liquidity and usually low volatility. However, it's easier to move markets in such conditions and if someone decides to execute a big order, the move could be big too. That move is more often than not faded or at least retraced to a great extent as liquidity returns.

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al_dcdemo 31 Dic

UPDATE 9: The pair needed approximately a month and a half to rise 450 pips, from a low (~0.6430) set in mid November to a high (~0.6880) set two days ago. It so far produced three daily closes above the declining trendline drawn off of 2014 and 2015 highs. October high (~0.69) looks quite achievable and a stop run to 0.70 in the first week of the new year seems like a decent possibility.

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EURo sellers still in control

al_dcdemo Posted 2 Nov  in #Trader's blog #Support #Resistance #EUR/USD #Hawkish Fed #Trading Channel #H1 Chart #Dovish Ecb
Since the last ECB meeting, at which Draghi hinted that they may ease further in December, Euro fell more than four cents. Hawkish Fed didn't help the pair either. It is currently holding below the bottom (trendline) of the seven-month trading channel and below 50, 100 and 200 DMA. Rallies have been weak, suggesting that the sellers are firmly in control.
Support:
1.0985 - 1.1000 (00's, Low Of Day, Weekly Pivot Point, H1 50 SMA, Late Friday Low)
1.0950 - 1.0965 (Previous Day Low, Daily Support 1…
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Loonie grinds higher

al_dcdemo Updated 29 Set  in #Trader's blog #Support #Resistance #USD/CAD #Uptrend #Hawkish Fed #H1 Chart #Weak Commodities #Risk Off Sentiment
Uptrend in Loonie is slow but persistent. The pair has posted (yet another) new eleven-year high today, breaking above last Thursday's high by 15 pips before pulling back. The drivers remain weak commodities and general risk-off sentiment. Hawkish comments from Fed speakers yesterday didn't help it either.
First stronger intraday support is seen at 1.3385 - 1.3400 (00's, Previous Day High, Low Of Day) and then between 1.3335 and 1.3365 (Daily Pivot Point, 50's, 1.3345 pivot, Daily Resistance 1).…
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foreignexchange 1 Ott

Bullish Loonie ; )

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The bearish mode is still on the table

marius24 Posted 30 Ott as Analysis on EUR/USD, Target: 1.2612, Date: 1 di Dicembre, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR/USD #Downtrend #Head And Shoulders #Hawkish Fed
Currency Pair:Eur/Usd
Indicators: technical patterns and Sma50(red)+ Sma200 (blue)
Current price: 1.2580
Trend: very strong downtrend
Possible trading range: 1.24-1.28
Signals: right now we have a bearish signal on the h4 chart where a head and shoulders pattern have been broken to the downside at around 1.2618 targeting 1.25 and then 1.24.
Fundamentals: a more hawkish FED is going to weigh negatively on Eur/Usd in the following period and only better data coming out of EZ should stop further do…
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marius24 10 Nov

update: euro has made another leg down due to a dovish ECB Press Conference where Draghi stressed one more time that the QE would come in case the economic activity get worse. A slight worse than expected NFP reading has prompted the last rally from 1.2358 to 1.2510. From here further rises are on the table with a possible consolidation between 1.24 and 1.26

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marius24 20 Nov

update the euro is struggling to make a base in order to dream at higher levels. So far the price has managed to deliver a bullish pattern called inverted head and shoulders with its neckline already broken at around 1.2575. The price has to break one more resisitance of a massive descending channel which stands at 1.26 in order to see more rises in eur/usd. I remain in favour of staying long on this pair in the following period

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marius24 26 Nov

update: Eur/Usd retested the daily bottom at 1.2358 and so far it seems that the bears ran out of steam to continue the downtrend below that support. Right now the price is hovering at 1.2450 and in my view is poised to deliver higher corrections in the following period.

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Thursday after FOMC

megajorko Posted 30 Ott  in #Trader's blog #Euro #Us Dollar #Hawkish Fed
Hello traders,
Yesterday happened what I was thinking will be a surprise and that is the hawkish mood of Fed. QE ended expectedly and as a result dollar pumped up as oil from newly built oil platform. Euro ofcourse dropped and today Germany are trying to trick us with lower than expected unemployment. But we do not believe you german analysers because we know Germany is suffering a new crisis (this is only my point of view not to be published worldwide ) As a result recently euro has started t…
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