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Cable to extend gains in the weeks ahead

al_dcdemo Posted 30 Nov. as Analysis on GBP/USD, Target: 1.3575, Date: 2 von January, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #GBP/USD #Daily Chart #Ascending Channel #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Balanced Positioning #Flash Crash #Hawkish Boe
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
GBP/USD broke below long-term support line (1.35) in one of the most volatile weeks in the pair's history as U.K. opted out of E.U. Then, a flash-cr…
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al_dcdemo 23 Dec.

UPDATE 8: U.S. dollar ended up higher against yen, marginally lower against franc and lower against other G10 major currencies this week. Even though monetary policy divergence is still in force, some of the recent trades have most certainly been made with convergence, which had already started this year, in mind.

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al_dcdemo 24 Dec.

UPDATE 9: Week ahead could easily end up being the least active week of the year. But otherwise subdued periods have often turned out quite volatile in recent years. "Expect the unexpected" is one saying that is useful to always keep in mind in trading business.

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al_dcdemo 27 Dec.

UPDATE 10: The U.S. dollar started this holiday-shortened week on the back foot. Falling U.S. treasury bond yields and recovery in commodities have been two drivers. Year-end position squaring could result to some messy price action into the end of the week.

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al_dcdemo 30 Dec.

UPDATE 11: U.S. dollar ended this year on a weaker note. The dollar index posted its lowest monthly close since 2014. Expectations of other major central banks following Fed into hawkish direction are beginning to outweigh the still present monetary policy divergence.

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al_dcdemo 2 Jan.

UPDATE 12: GBP/USD closed last year just above 1.35. The pair added 50 pips so far today, shrugging off weaker than expected Manufacturing PMI as U.S. dollar weakness continues to play out in the new year. 1.3650 is the next target.

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Cable to maintain 1.30 - 1.35 range for now

al_dcdemo Posted 23 Oct. as Analysis on GBP/USD, Target: 1.3375, Date: 1 von December, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #GBP/USD #Daily Chart #Ascending Channel #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Net Long Positioning #Flash Crash #Hawkish Boe
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
Cable broke below long-term support line in one of the most volatile weeks in the pair's history as U.K. opted out of E.U. Then, a flash-crash in Oc…
Die komplette Geschichte lesen
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al_dcdemo 11 Nov.

UPDATE 5: U.S. dollar recorded a loss this week as recent gains on tax reform hopes have been pared. U.S. Senate said to propose delaying corporate tax cut until 2019. U.S. dollar index is closing in on the trendline, drawn off of September and October lows.

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al_dcdemo 13 Nov.

UPDATE 6: Weekend report that 40 members of British parliament have agreed to sign a letter of no-confidence in PM Theresa May, weighs on the pound. GBP/USD opened about 20 pips lower, extended the decline by 50 pips in Asia and by 30 pips so far in Europe. 1.30 - 1.3050 is the support area to watch.

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al_dcdemo 17 Nov.

UPDATE 7: The U.S. dollar ended the week lower against European currencies and yen, and higher against the commodity bloc. If we look at these currencies from the yield perspective, it was actually a typical risk-off week, albeit on reduced volatility.

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al_dcdemo 23 Nov.

UPDATE 8: FOMC Minutes highlighted the division among officials on inflation outlook, though majority still think inflation will ultimately pick up. December hike is virtually a done deal but what comes after that will increasingly depend on inflation progress. U.S. dollar was sold ahead of and after the release.

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al_dcdemo 29 Nov.

UPDATE 9: Progress on U.S. tax reform, better than expected GDP revision and Janet Yellen with some hawkish comments have all been welcomed by U.S. dollar bulls. Yet the currency struggled to make any significant headway today. Markets have been continuously underestimating Fed's resolve to normalize rates in this cycle.

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Cable could make another attempt at the upside

al_dcdemo Posted 26 Sep. as Analysis on GBP/USD, Target: 1.3625, Date: 1 von November, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #GBP/USD #Daily Chart #Ascending Channel #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Net Short Positioning #Flash Crash #Hawkish Boe
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
Cable broke below long-term support line in one of the most volatile weeks in the pair's history as U.K. opted out of E.U. Then, a flash-crash in Oc…
Die komplette Geschichte lesen
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al_dcdemo 12 Oct.

UPDATE 5: As expected, there was nothing shocking in the Minutes of the most recent FOMC meeting. The division between those who believe that inflation is low due to transitory factors and those who think it's just a new normal, is nothing new but the market seemed to take this as a mildly dovish sign. U.S. dollar has already been weakening this week and, after a minor whipsaw, prices just continued on the path of least resistance. December hike from the Fed is pretty much priced in at this point. The focus is on inflation and tax reform, for clues as to what comes beyond that.

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al_dcdemo 13 Oct.

UPDATE 6: Earlier today a combo of U.S. inflation and retail sales reports for September was released. Inflation indicators came in somewhat weaker than expected but mostly higher than in August while retail sales were better than expected. Market focus was on inflation and initial reaction was to sell the U.S. dollar. Moves stalled after 50 - 70 pips and later reversed to various extents across dollar pairs as traders digested otherwise solid reports. The dollar will close the week lower against all major currencies.

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al_dcdemo 19 Oct.

UPDATE 7: U.K. CPI hit 3.0% on the year-over-year basis for the first time since 2013. Wage inflation ticked higher too, but is running well below the inflation level, making it hard for the Bank of England to justify the impending bank rate hike. Cable is holding just above 50 DMA ahead of the retail sales report at 08:30 GMT. We may see more selling on a weaker number than buying on a stronger one. 1.2950 - 1.30 is the target area, if the pair continues lower. 1.3450 - 1.35 is the target area, it the pair decides to head higher.

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al_dcdemo 21 Oct.

UPDATE 8: U.S. dollar was the winner of this week. Solid inflation report last week and renewed prospects for a successful tax reform have been the fundamental drivers. Technically, 91 appears to have been more than just a short-term lower in the U.S. dollar index, with 95 being the next target. 10-year U.S. treasury yield closed the week on its highs, just below the important 2.4% level, of which Bill Gross says is a trend-changing point. Apart from ECB and BOE next week, one of the most important events to watch out for is nomination of the, probably new, Fed Chair.

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al_dcdemo 27 Oct.

UPDATE 9: Cautious tones from ECB and BOC, weak Australian inflation one side and progress in U.S. politics and much better than expected Advance GDP reading on the other one were among the drivers of major currency pairs this week. BOE is expected to hike next week but it will be a one-off for now. The U.S. dollar was mostly bought up until around the time Europe started heading for the pub. Rumor of Trump leaning toward Powell as the next Fed chair sparked a bout of profit-taking. The dollar ended the week higher against every major currency bar Japanese yen.

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