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When it comes to monetary policy among developed economies, FED is the most hawkish central bank and today's FOMC meeting will reinforce that stance. However this hawkishness is already price in and the market is already expecting a rate hike but the timing of the rate hike is what the market focus is right now. A rate hike today is out of cards as the market probability for a NO rate hike is 98%. Even though few months back my assessment was for Jun rate hike following the 2004 template, many t…
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RBNZ The Most Hawkish CB
I know is kind of long time since my last blog post, but the only reason why I've stop blogging was mainly because I was busy and secondly because I don't have any chance to come back in top 10. In today blog post I want to take the time and have a look into recent NZ dollar price movement.
When it comes to the monetary policy RBNZ is the most hawkish Central Bank among developed economies(see Figure 1) and this is certainly reflected in recent price movement after 2 consecutive raise in in…
RBA Leave Rates Unchanged
Indeed RBA leave the interest rates unchanged which are already at historic low point, this is no surprise as that is the reason why they have been talking down the aussie and making a lot of verbal interventions.
Remember that last year RBA's Stevens said that Australia needs AUD/USD closer to an 0.8500 exchange rate. Basically this was an aggressive verbal intervention from RBA governor who said that lower aussie is preferable to rates to help the economy.
The only reason why he wants lower…
Remember that last year RBA's Stevens said that Australia needs AUD/USD closer to an 0.8500 exchange rate. Basically this was an aggressive verbal intervention from RBA governor who said that lower aussie is preferable to rates to help the economy.
The only reason why he wants lower…
Preparing the week ahead
Next week there are very important upcoming economic events as major Central Banks from around the world have scheduled interest rate decisions and upgrade their market policy, and on top of that, Friday we have the NFP figures which after last poor figure has become an important risk event as we know that tapering is "data depending" and any soft number may be perceived as a threat to the reduction of the bond buying programe.
Tuesday we have RBA interest rate decision and market expectati…