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EUR/CHF breaks above June high

al_dcdemo Updated 27 July  in #Trader's blog #Support #Resistance #EUR/CHF #Breakout #Greece #Snb #Safe Haven #H1 Chart #Bullish Sentiment
EUR/CHF broke above June high (~1.0575) last week but pulled back below it ahead of the weekend. The pair traded above the level overnight and is so far holding up well. With the Greek risk out of the way for now, demand for safe haven lessened. Potential SNB buying in the dips may also play a role of supporting the bullish sentiment.
If the pair continues higher we may see a retest of 1.08 in the days ahead. The next targets would then be 200 DMA (~1.0940) and 76.4% retracement of the January 1…
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Greek deal closer

al_dcdemo Updated 13 July  in #Trader's blog #EU #GBP/JPY #Fundamentals #Greece #Referendum #H1 Chart #Third Bailout
It seems that a deal was reached between EU and Greece, but it is still subject to approval from the Greek government. The conditions for the third bailout are much harsher than those rejected by the Greek people on the referendum and even if the government approves them, that by any means won't be the end of the story.
Now that some uncertainty is out of the way, currencies appear to be returning back to trading fundamentals. EUR/USD sold off while GBP/USD, USD/JPY and USD/CHF rallied. In line …
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Yen bounces overnight

al_dcdemo Posted 9 July  in #Trader's blog #USD/JPY #Greece #Us Session #Asian Session #100 Dma #H1 Chart #Chinese Stocks
After nearly 200 pip fall yesterday, the pair found support in 120.40 - 120.70 band in US afternoon. It then rallied in Asian session, in line with slightly better sentiment with regard to Greece and stabilization in Chinese stocks.
It is now back above 100 DMA which has been reinforced by Weekly Support 2, Monthly Support 1 and 121.00 big figure level. First stronger resistance is seen at previous support between 121.90 and 122.05 (March high, Previous Week Low, Weekly Support 1, Daily Resistan…
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EURo continues lower

al_dcdemo Posted 1 July  in #Trader's blog #EUR/USD #Greece #Referendum #Weekly Support 1 #100 Dma #H1 Chart
There were some headlines in the morning that were implying possibility of an early deal between Greece and creditors, but the optimism quickly faded and it seems that we'll have to wait until Sunday's referendum before negotiations will continue.
Euro has now retraced more than 61.8% of the Monday's rally. It is currently trading just above 100 DMA (~1.1050), a part of the support band which includes March/April range top (1.1035 - 1.1050) and Weekly Support 1 (~1.1060). If it breaks and holds …
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EUR/USD to break higher

al_dcdemo Posted 30 June as Analysis on EUR/USD, Target: 1.1475, Date: 3rd of August, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR/USD #Greece #Bounce #Downtrend #Channel Line #Yearly Lows #Strong Resistance #Lift Off #Bullish Mode
Monthly chart:
The pair has been in a downtrend since May 2014. After it broke below the longer-term trendline that supports lows of years 2005, 2010 and 2012, a series of important levels gave way: 50.0% retracement (of the 2000 to 2008 uptrend), 2012 low, 2010 low, 2005 low and 61.8% retracement. The levels were falling like dominoes before the rout finally stopped near the declining channel-line (drawn off 2008 and 2010 lows). Further support comes in at 2003 low (1.0331) and then at 76.4% re…
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al_dcdemo 13 July

UPDATE 4: Euro gapped down 50 odd pips at the open. This was the third weekend gap in a row. It was smallest of them all and it was also the quickest one to close - in the first hour of trading. After a deal was reached between EU and Greece, the pair rallied 70 pips but stalled ahead of 1.12 and reversed from there to fall 200 pips. It appears poised to close below 100 DMA.

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WallStreet6 28 July

I think this one will be the biggest miss as don't think it will move above 1.12 within a week. But very thorough analysis!

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al_dcdemo 31 July

Thanks! Yep, more luck next time. :)

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al_dcdemo 31 July

UPDATE 5: The week in the pair was quite volatile, yet the range was less than 250 pips. The pair continued last week's rally on Monday and extended to 1.1130 before running out of steam. It then fell for three days, setting a low just below 1.09 on Thursday. Friday was the most interesting day as the combination of weaker than expected wage data and month-end flows sent the pair to 1.1115 before it fall all the way back.

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al_dcdemo 1 Aug.

UPDATE 6: Next week will be important as we will get the latest NFP report and both ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs from the US. 50 DMA is proving to be a formidable resistance as it held four times this month. Above that, July 10th high (~1.1215) is the next. Initial support is seen at July 30th low (~1.0890) before range support near 1.08.

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EURo gap filled

al_dcdemo Updated 29 June  in #Trader's blog #EUR/USD #Stock Market #Greece #Hedge #Referendum #Momentum #Daily Resistance 2 #H1 Chart #Weekend Gap
Euro filled the weekend gap and some, after upbeat tones from many officials and the perception that Greek people will vote "Yes" on Sunday's referendum. Part of the flows might also have been unwinding of the currency hedges in line with selling in the stock market.
The pair is back to the pre-weekend range which traded between 1.1150 and 1.1225. The momentum is on the bullish side at the moment and should the pair break above the range, the next resistance may be found in 1.1250 - 1.1260 band …
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EURo doesn't like the upside

al_dcdemo Updated 19 June  in #Trader's blog #Euro #Cpi #EUR/USD #Fed #Greece #Fake Breakout #Ascending Triangle
Euro's break above the ascending triangle, formed over the past three weeks, proved to be fake and the pair is now heading towards the lower extreme of the pattern. Greece uncertainty has outweighted wavering Fed and weaker US CPI print as we are heading into the weekend.
Direction is unclear at the moment, the above-mentioned pattern will need to be convincingly broken either way to establish bullish or bearish bias. Supply band: 1.1400 - 1.1450. Possible demand band: 1.1250 - 1.1300.
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Cable keeps gaining

al_dcdemo Updated 16 June  in #Trader's blog #GBP/USD #Cable #Fomc #Greece #Trading Range #Safe Haven Flows #Dip Buyers
Cable has been incredibly resilient lately and some of that may also be attributed to the safe haven flows due to the ongoing uncertainty regarding Greece. It fell today on weaker than expected inflation report, but buyers were waiting in the dips and soon took the pair to new highs for the day, week and month.
Tomorrow is the FOMC day and the pair will likely remain in this upward grinding trading range at least until then. When it breaks, first stronger support may come in between 1.5450 and 1…
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EURo trading tight

al_dcdemo Posted 15 June  in #Trader's blog #Euro #EUR/USD #Fomc #Greece #Tight Range #50 Dma #100 Dma #Trendline Resistance
Despite failure of the weekend Greece-creditors talks, Euro remains well supported in the dips and is currently trading in a tight range between 1.1200 and 1.1250. Where it will go from here it will depend mostly on headlines, but I suspect it won't break into either direction before FOMC meeting on Wednesday.
Stronger support is seen near 1.1050 (June 5th low, 50 and 100 DMA), while the weekly trendline resistance shall be found between 1.12 and 1.13.
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al_dcdemo 16 June

Weekly trendline resistance shall be found between 1.13 and 1.14 (not 1.12 and 1.13).

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EURo boggles below the trendline

al_dcdemo Updated 12 June  in #Trader's blog #Euro #Trendline #EUR/USD #Greece #50 Dma #100 Dma #Us Data
Euro has been bumping into the declining trendline (drawn off July 2014, August 2014, December 2014, May 2015 and June 2015 highs) for the most of the past week. On the flipside, all falls on the disappointing Greek headlines and better US data were promptly soaked up. Supply and demand are in balance at the moment, but one of the sides will soon give in.
A great catalyst for the upside would be a deal between Greece and its creditors. Not sure about Greek default, as on one hand it would cause …
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