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Expectations for the forthcoming week

speculo_ergo_sum Posted 20 Feb.  in #Trader's blog #Gdp
Pair Expectation, target value – maximum or minimum for the week
AUDUSD up, target: 0.7410
EURUSD down, target: 1.0800
USDCAD down, target: 1.3530
GBPUSD down, target: 1.4200
USDJPY down, target: 109.80
USDNOK down, target: 8.380
The most important data for the week to come is revised GDP numbers for the US economy. Albeit the initial estimation printed higher than expected numbers, the data might surprise the markets and induce a round of sell-off in stocks and bonds. This case is possib…
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A few notes on AUD and the Australian economy

speculo_ergo_sum Posted 6 Dec.  in #Trader's blog #AUD #Gdp #Interest Rates
The Australian dollar peaked in the early beginning of 2012 at the level of 1.11 USD. After almost two years of consolidation between in the range between 0.97 and 1.08 the trend down commenced in the spring of 2013. This development is rather befuddling, especially when compared to NZD that stayed in bullish mode over the same period of time. Considering that both currencies have the highest yields among developed nations such unusual dynamics for AUD is noticeable.
It looks that the AUD is go…
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UK GDP and Interest Rate Expectations

speculo_ergo_sum Posted 14 Aug.  in #Trader's blog #GBP #USD #UK #Gdp #Interest Rate #Expectations
This coming Friday the 2nd estimate of GDP in Great Britain will be released. The first round of preliminary data released in July had limited impact – GBP went up about 20 pts against USD over 3 minutes, just to lose all the gains within less than half-hour, albeit losses were quite modest. Lack of positive influence on exchange rate of GBP from quite good GDP numbers would be flabbergasting if interest rate expectations were not taken into account.
The main reason for such a lackluster dynami…
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Polinka avatar
Polinka 1 Oct.

Good luck!

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Macroeconomic Data, Oil and Canadian Dollar

speculo_ergo_sum Posted 8 Aug.  in #Trader's blog #JPY #USD #Oil #Gdp #Sales #Canadian Dollar #Macroeconomic Data
Canadian dollar has been in a down trend for 5 weeks now – it has lost about 3% against USD, JPY and
about 1.5% against EUR over this period of time. This is not a lot by historical standards but in this day of age – in times of very low volatility for almost all classes of traded assets – one can talk about the trends despite of their seeming insignificance in absolute terms.
Poor employment data releases in July and August lead to sell-offs on Fridays, that account for the most of the losses…
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