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USD/JPY & GBP/USD

TheAnalyst Posted 17 Mag  in #Trader's blog #GBP/USD #EUR/USD
Took a LONG trade in GBP/USD after the news during the European session. Unemployment was reduced even further to 4.6% from 4.7% and there were no negative surprises in the claimant count or the average earnings index. The trade has a modest profit target and closed within a couple of hours despite the lukeward effect the news had in the GBP/USD price action.
A SHORT trade in USD/JPY which was entered late yesterday, closed profitably today, early in the European session. The pair has made any m…
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EUR/USD & GBP/USD

TheAnalyst Posted 16 Mag  in #Trader's blog #GBP/USD #EUR/USD
The EUR/USD continued its ascent today, currently sitting at 1.1060. We closed our trade after the EU GDP data, which came in as expected, but the pair was already at new highs at 1.1050 and temporary reaction after the news was bearish. This prompted us to play it safe, especially since the pair's strength is still a bit of a mystery in our view.
Similarly the GBP/USD was strong, but after good CPI data the pair was met with some selling. Technicals are not yet given a SHORT signal, but we will…
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The Euro and the Pound

TheAnalyst Posted 11 Mag  in #Trader's blog #GBP/USD #EUR/USD
Today we enterered a SHORT in EUR/NOK based on general oil prices strength and Euro weakness. Profit target at 1.3230 and with a small position due to uncertainty in oil prices.
The EUR/USD seems to have finally started correcting, but there's still a lot of buying interest on the way down at various levels. We would prefer to close the trade before the end of the week due to the G7 meetings, so we will be monitoring for any adjustments. Nevertheless, profit target at 1.079 is actually way above…
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Difficult Week for Currency Trading

TheAnalyst Posted 2 Mag  in #Trader's blog #GBP/USD #USD/JPY #EUR/USD #EUR/NOK
The awaited election results are keeping most EUR pairs at high levels, the EUR/USD in particular. Good PMI numbers haven't yet given a bullish signal in GBP/USD, which is caught in an upward channel, but at the same time in high levels and with no recent retracement to enter a long trade with confidence. EUR/GBP has been going up but we're still looking for a short trade as technicals support one in the medium-term.
Today, we entered (so far) two trades:
1. a long in USD/JPY, there's lots of b…
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GBPUSD MOVING SLOWLY ALONG A DOWNWARD CHANNEL

TheAnalyst Posted 16 Dic as Analysis on GBP/USD, Target: 1.4811, Date: 1 di Febbraio, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #GBP/USD
Macro View: The FED raised the federal funds rate during its December meeting and the pair reacted negatively to the news. This will most likely keep GBPUSD down for a month or two at least, depending on data.
Technicals: The pair will try and breach the downward channel as seen on the daily chart and go for the next available Fibonacci level which is at 1.4811, whether it will move straight down from there to the next level at 1.454 or retry 1.50 is irrelevant for the forecast since there’s bo…
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5 Commenti
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TheAnalyst 5 Gen

The pair broke the downward channel as predicted and stood at 1.48 at the beginning of January. It moved down further as the first trading days after the holidays progressed and currently, Jan 5, has stalled at 1.465, about 100 pips higher than the next predicted level.

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TheAnalyst 8 Gen

After non-farms today the pair reached the next target and waited a bit at around our predicted 1.454 level. Currently it has reached a low of 1.4506 and it stands at 1.4515 as of this writing. It looks like a reaction from that level might not be as quick as we thought during our forecast but the next level at around 1.415 seems a bit too low even now, despite the apparent strength of the recent downward movement.

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TheAnalyst 12 Gen

After manufacturing production numbers today disappointed, cable moved to a low of 1.4350, 200 pips below our predicted downward movement. 1.42 and 1.415 seem to be the next levels for the pair to reach before a bounce, unless BOE offers some positive surprises on Thursday...If the decline stops at 1.415 then a bounce to 1.4715 seems still possible, but about 100 pips off target. With 1.4766 as another level for a rebound, the prediction still looks good. But a lot can happen in 19-20 days.

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TheAnalyst 19 Gen

There seems to be some buying at today's low at 1.4129,  about 20 pips lower than our predicted level. With only a week and a half to go and with the mild reaction at these low levels, 1.48 seems too far away at this point. If the week ends with a strong rebound around 1.45, then next week might see a level such as 1.48. The next level to reach downward would be 1.3930, but at 1.41 the pair seems oversold as the next monthly level is at 1.37, a low which the pair has touched before twice, once in 2009 and once in 2001.

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TheAnalyst 22 Gen

The pair reached a low of 1.4080 before bouncing strongly to current levels at 1.4350, 150 pips off the 1.45 level we mentioned on Jan 19 as a potential strong rebound that would make our prediction still valid 1.45 and 1.4670 are the next levels for the pair to reach next week if it continues like that. There's always though a possibility of  a consolidation period. In that case the pair will probably move  between 1.42 and 1.45...

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CABLE UP

TheAnalyst Posted 30 Ott as Analysis on GBP/USD, Target: 1.562, Date: 1 di Dicembre, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #GBP/USD #Gbpusd
Recent price action suggests GBP strength against USD. Our view is that the FED won't raise rates in December. Regardless, the only effect this news has on the prediction is that at that time the market price action might be a bit cagey.
On the weekly chart we see MACD being bullish and Cable on its way to break a channel and try for 1.59, a previous top. Nevertheless, with currency price actions acting out of the ordinary--meaning no strong trend following after a major break, especially one af…
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2 Commenti
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MOZILLA 30 Ott

We look forward the 5 November the rate announcement that it will bring still rising the cross GBP/USD

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TheAnalyst 30 Ott

Right, there is the BOE news next week...Can't really see a change in the bank rate, but the inflation report or even the bank rate votes could cause a stir in the pair. If recent history is anything to go by a 100-pip move will be the result  of any major news breaking. Unless of course the bank rate does increase, then the pair should move way more in November.

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Trapped GBPUSD

TheAnalyst Posted 14 Set as Analysis on GBP/USD, Target: 1.5185, Date: 2 di Novembre, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #GBP/USD
With the BOE and the FED in a deciding conundrum about raising rates amidst mixed data, CABLE seems to be trapped in a consolidation pattern after a drop which seems to have reached all the way to the bottom of the pair.
Despite said bottom we can't really make a call of GBP rising against the dollar. Based on Chart 1: it looks like the pair is on the way of retesting the lows at around 1.45. Based on Chart 2: the pair seems likely to move between 1.45 and 1.59, with UPSIDE potential the most li…
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3 Commenti
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TheAnalyst 9 Ott

After some good construction numbers  last Friday the pair enjoyed a nice rally from Oct 6 to Oct 8 up to 1.5380, but with BOE offering nothing of much use and a negative output in the construction industry report released today, the pair seems to be ready to correct toward 1.52 from 1.53 where it currently stands. If cable does remain trapped then it is likely the pair will end the month around that level as well, regardless of whether it will test the 1.51 lows which offer some support or try to surpass the 1.55 level, which should offer some resistance.

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TheAnalyst 28 Ott

The pair tried several days to break through the 1.55 level between the 14 and 22 of October, before moving back down. Currently, it stands at 1.5287, about 100 points away from our target price and a few hours before the FED announcement. Any considerable move the FOMC statement might bring to CABLE probably wouldn't be more than 100 pips to either side, at which level there's bound to be a reaction to the opposite side again, continuing with the trapped pattern. At this point, it's just wait and see...

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TheAnalyst 28 Ott

The pair moved up to 1.5350 before the FOMC statement and currently stands at 1.525, after the statement's release. So a 100 pip move on the news as expected. Based on short-term technicals it looks like there's room for more downward pressure, but it's still a wait and see  kind of perspective...

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Bullish on the Pound

TheAnalyst Posted 11 Gen as Analysis on GBP/USD, Target: 1.6685, Date: 3 di Marzo, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #GBP/USD
Forecast based on Lines, Fibonacci levels and Moving Averages on Weekly and Daily charts.The Pound looks like it was on a range after a big drop and based on the Moving averagesand the channel lines as shown on the weekly chart (chart1) it seems like that rangehas been broken.We predict the pair will continue upward. Based on teh Fibonacci levels on the Daily chart(chart2) we predict the price will reach the 127.2% Fibo level at 1.66853.
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TheAnalyst 2 Mar

After maintaining the 1.6680 level for 2 to 3 days (caught in a downward channel until it broke upward) during the last week of February Cable ended the month at 1.6740. As far as we can tell from the above charts the pair will begin Monday either with a minor correction back at the 1.6680-5 level or head straight up to 1.6780 right on its way to 1.6840.

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Positive Course Expected for Cable

TheAnalyst Posted 11 Apr as Analysis on GBP/USD, Target: 1.6000, Date: 3 di Giugno, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #GBP/USD
The MACD in the weekly chart signals an upward movement and the price action in the monthly chart supports the potential of such a course for the GBP/USD pair. Based on Fibonacci levels in the weekly chart and accounting for some resistance at the 1.62 level, we predict that the price in early June 2013 will be at 1.60000.Monthly ChartWeekly Chart
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