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Risk sentiment soured yesterday after the release of the hawkish FOMC Minutes. Stocks went lower and the U.S. dollar extended its winning streak to four consecutive days against most currencies. AUD/USD was also hit yesterday on tepid wage inflation data. If the current mode continues, the pair will be testing 0.775, and possibly 0.765, soon.
al_dcdemo's Blog
U.S. dollar gains after hawkish FOMC Minutes
Quite some action after the release of the Minutes of the January FOMC meeting. U.S. dollar spiked lower but then completely reversed course and went to a new high for the day against most major currencies. USD/JPY is facing a stiff resistance ahead of 108 but, absent a sharp deterioration in risk mood, it's probably more a question of when rather than if it will yield.
USD/JPY breaks above 50.0% retracement
USD/JPY rose 200 pips yesterday in the first four hours of N.A. trading. (Core) Durable Goods Orders report was better than expected while Unemployment Claims and New Home Sales missed expectations but still came in solid. Later, FOMC Meeting Minutes confirmed broad support for a December hike.
The pair blasted through 50.0% retracement of the 2015 - 2016 decline and was already consolidating above the level when the Minutes were released. 115 - 116 area (includes 2015 low and 61.8% retracement)…
The pair blasted through 50.0% retracement of the 2015 - 2016 decline and was already consolidating above the level when the Minutes were released. 115 - 116 area (includes 2015 low and 61.8% retracement)…
FOMC meeting minutes surprise
Yesterday's FOMC Meeting Minutes were a big surprise. Rarely does this release, which basically contains data three weeks old, provide something new. June rate hike is now back on the table but I'm still of the view that we'll not see one at least until September.
The reaction was U.S. dollar buying across the board. USD/CAD, also helped by falling oil, benefited the most and broke above strong resistance at 1.30. GBP/USD on the other hand was the least affected after it rallied strongly on Rema…
The reaction was U.S. dollar buying across the board. USD/CAD, also helped by falling oil, benefited the most and broke above strong resistance at 1.30. GBP/USD on the other hand was the least affected after it rallied strongly on Rema…
Swissie breaks 0.98
Swissie finally broke above the strong resistance level at 0.98. The breakout came overnight on low volumes so I would be wary of a pullback, perhaps on the release of FOMC meeting minutes later today.
The immediate resistance is the confluence of 100 DMA and 200 DMA. Beyond that, 0.99 and 1.00 are the next levels where I'd expect some selling to come in. 0.975 - 0.98 shall now hold as a support, if this market is indeed bullish.
The immediate resistance is the confluence of 100 DMA and 200 DMA. Beyond that, 0.99 and 1.00 are the next levels where I'd expect some selling to come in. 0.975 - 0.98 shall now hold as a support, if this market is indeed bullish.
FOMC meeting minutes didn't impress
FOMC Meeting Minutes, which were released yesterday evening, didn't provide us with anything new. Officials did acknowledge increased downside risks to inflation outlook stemming mostly from USD strength and oil weakness but didn't back away from rate hikes.
Reaction to the release was muted. Price recorded a couple of small whipsaws before returning to what it was doing before - a pattern that is quite prevalent with these releases.
Reaction to the release was muted. Price recorded a couple of small whipsaws before returning to what it was doing before - a pattern that is quite prevalent with these releases.
EURo finds some relief after FOMC meeting minutes
Euro spent the day range-bound between ~1.0725 and ~1.0775. FOMC meeting minutes, released at 19:00 GMT, were not as hawkish as expected with several members expressing concerns over low inflation and risks to its outlook.
The pair put up a 50 pip rally in response, breaking out of the aforementioned range. 1.08 is the first stronger resistance level while 1.0750 - 1.0775 shall now act as a support.
The pair put up a 50 pip rally in response, breaking out of the aforementioned range. 1.08 is the first stronger resistance level while 1.0750 - 1.0775 shall now act as a support.
EURo pulls back
Broader U.S. dollar selling, that started yesterday after publication of the last FOMC meeting Minutes, continued today. Euro rallied a good cent before it ran out of steam above 1.0750.
Long term trendline, which I wrote about in my article few weeks ago, is holding for now. However, most signs are pointing to lower prices and the trendline may well give way in the weeks ahead. That would open door to parity (1.00) and maybe even below that, with 0.85 level being often cited in financial media.
Long term trendline, which I wrote about in my article few weeks ago, is holding for now. However, most signs are pointing to lower prices and the trendline may well give way in the weeks ahead. That would open door to parity (1.00) and maybe even below that, with 0.85 level being often cited in financial media.
Cable had another decent day
FOMC meeting Minutes were published yesterday evening. There was nothing new in them but the market did seem to expect a bit more hawkishness. An absence of a clear signal that rates will go up in December was perhaps the main driver behind the broad dollar selling that followed the publication.
Cable rose to as high as 1.5295 in the hours after the release. 1.5300 - 1.5340 band, which includes 50 and 200 DMA, is the first stronger resistance before the confluence of 100 DMA and the descending t…
Cable rose to as high as 1.5295 in the hours after the release. 1.5300 - 1.5340 band, which includes 50 and 200 DMA, is the first stronger resistance before the confluence of 100 DMA and the descending t…
Tight ranges prevail
Another summer day in the markets with the Yen ranging between 124.20 and 124.40. Weekly range is about 40 pips wide at the moment, the smallest this year. But perhaps it is just a calm before the storm, which may come by way of US inflation report (12:30GMT) and FOMC meeting minutes (18:00GMT) later in the day.
Support: 124.15 - 124.20 (Weekly Low, Low Of Day, Daily Support 1)
Resistance: 124.45 - 124.60 (Weekly Pivot Point, High Of Day, 50's, Previous Day High, Daily Resistance 1)
However, unl…
Support: 124.15 - 124.20 (Weekly Low, Low Of Day, Daily Support 1)
Resistance: 124.45 - 124.60 (Weekly Pivot Point, High Of Day, 50's, Previous Day High, Daily Resistance 1)
However, unl…