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USD/JPY is at an important juncture. 105 - 105.30 (76.4% retracement of the Trump rally) is the last stronger chart-based support area ahead of the big 100. A successful break will probably see a quick markdown to 102.5 - 103. FOMC decision is a potential catalyst. A hike is a done deal but even if they explicitly signal another three hikes this year (unlikely), I don't think that will stop the decline for long, if at all. 95 before winter is not all that unfathomable anymore.
al_dcdemo's Blog
USD/JPY rallies as FOMC upgrades tightening path
FOMC didn't disappoint yesterday. Federal funds rate corridor was hiked by 25 basis points, as widely expected. Even though the bank remains cautious, the dot plot was upgraded to reflect three hikes (from two in September) in 2017. That was enough for the dollar to rally.
USD/JPY blasted through the strong resistance (now support) area between 115.50 and 116 and added nearly 190 pips on the day. The momentum carried on overnight with 118 proving to be a bit of a hurdle. Closing the year in gree…
USD/JPY blasted through the strong resistance (now support) area between 115.50 and 116 and added nearly 190 pips on the day. The momentum carried on overnight with 118 proving to be a bit of a hurdle. Closing the year in gree…
Aussie settles near 0.75 level
0.75 is the equilibrium level for the Aussie as we await the FOMC meeting. Lacklustre Australian data overnight (HPI, NAB Business Confidence) but some better than expected Chinese data (Industrial Production, Retail Sales) were unable to move it.
The pair has been bumping against the level for the third week. 200 DMA and now 50 DMA are protecting the upside with 100 DMA not far away. Tomorrow is a big day and I think when the dust settles the pair will move through the level to retest longer-te…
The pair has been bumping against the level for the third week. 200 DMA and now 50 DMA are protecting the upside with 100 DMA not far away. Tomorrow is a big day and I think when the dust settles the pair will move through the level to retest longer-te…
Fed stands pat
Yesterday's FOMC decision proved to be a non-event. The committee made a couple of adjustments to the statement but the message remained basically the same and there was no hint of a timing of the next rate hike.
The market did what it usually does after high impact releases that change nothing - it ran stops on both sides before returning to pre-release range. Tomorrow's U.S. Q1 Advance GDP will likely provide a better signal as to the direction.
The market did what it usually does after high impact releases that change nothing - it ran stops on both sides before returning to pre-release range. Tomorrow's U.S. Q1 Advance GDP will likely provide a better signal as to the direction.
Swissie pares post-FOMC losses
Swissie broke below 200 DMA last week, after FOMC left federal funds rate unchanged and released a dovish rate statement. Second day of selling failed to project past February low (~0.9660) and the pair bounced instead.
November - March channel bottom is supported by the broken 2003 - 2015 (down) trendline with the 2011- 2016 (up) trendline coming in from below. 200 DMA shall now act as a resistance.
November - March channel bottom is supported by the broken 2003 - 2015 (down) trendline with the 2011- 2016 (up) trendline coming in from below. 200 DMA shall now act as a resistance.
Fed holds rates
At its two day meeting that concluded yesterday, FOMC decided to leave Federal Funds Rate in 0.0% - 0.25% range. Disinflationary implications of slowing global growth, oil weakness and US dollar strength are the main reasons why the committee stood pat.
The dollar was sold across the board but it retraced most of its losses against the commodity currencies. Euro was the winner of the day as it rose nearly a cent and a half. Swissie and Cable both moved close to 100 pips on the day and Yen about …
The dollar was sold across the board but it retraced most of its losses against the commodity currencies. Euro was the winner of the day as it rose nearly a cent and a half. Swissie and Cable both moved close to 100 pips on the day and Yen about …
Cable breaks 1.55
Following decent UK labour market figures and then later slightly weaker than expected US inflation report, Cable rose a cent and a half on the day with the daily range of two cents. The pair took stops above 1.55 up to 1.5530 before pulling back and stalling ahead of 50 and 100 DMA.
1.5520 - 1.5530 (High Of Day, 50 DMA, 100 DMA, Previous Day High) is the initial resistance before 1.5545 - 1.5570 (Weekly Resistance 1, 50's, 61.8% retracement of the September 4th to September 10th upswing, Daily …
1.5520 - 1.5530 (High Of Day, 50 DMA, 100 DMA, Previous Day High) is the initial resistance before 1.5545 - 1.5570 (Weekly Resistance 1, 50's, 61.8% retracement of the September 4th to September 10th upswing, Daily …
Aussie rejects prices below 0.70
Aussie posted a weekly close below 0.70 level on Friday, September 4th, what was not seen since March 2009. After tight consolidation on Monday, September 7th, the pair turned back higher and rallied more than 150 pips from the lows. Another attempt at sub 0.70 prices was promptly rejected and the pair so far traded up to 0.71.
There may be deeper correction in the cards, especially if the Fed doesn't hike at the next week's FOMC meeting. Demand is likely to start coming in at 0.70 and below. In…
There may be deeper correction in the cards, especially if the Fed doesn't hike at the next week's FOMC meeting. Demand is likely to start coming in at 0.70 and below. In…
EURo to the highest since early January
EUR/USD is the pair that appears to have benefited the most from the recent market rout. Some if it may be unwinding of the Euro currency hedges, which were established during European stock market bull run. Short covering ahead of the September FOMC meeting, which will likely postpone the lift-off, is definitely a part of it.
Initial support is seen at February high (~1.1535) and then at May high (~1.1470) with the stronger one near 200 DMA (~1.13). Resistance was found at the March to August c…
Initial support is seen at February high (~1.1535) and then at May high (~1.1470) with the stronger one near 200 DMA (~1.13). Resistance was found at the March to August c…
USD/CHF resuming the uptrend
Monthly chart:
After breaking parity at the start of the year, the SNB shocker on January 15th sent the pair all the way down to 2011 lows. The actual low was 0.7263 or roughly just 70% of its value before the announcement. The turnaround was equally impressive and after barely two months the pair found itself testing middle of the pre-SNB range between parity and 1.03. It declined from there but managed to hold above both 20 and 50 month SMA. The latter is the line in sand: holding above is bul…
After breaking parity at the start of the year, the SNB shocker on January 15th sent the pair all the way down to 2011 lows. The actual low was 0.7263 or roughly just 70% of its value before the announcement. The turnaround was equally impressive and after barely two months the pair found itself testing middle of the pre-SNB range between parity and 1.03. It declined from there but managed to hold above both 20 and 50 month SMA. The latter is the line in sand: holding above is bul…