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More Losses for the USD/JPY

fxsurprise8 发布31 3月 为分析在 USD/JPY , Target: 108.12, 日期: 1 于 5月, 12:00 GMT  在 #Technical analysis #JPY #Trendline #USD/JPY #Fomc #Us Dollar #Japanese Yen #Decline #Downtrend #Average True Range
The USD/JPY had a remarkable run since the second half of 2016. We saw the pair rally by almost 2,000 pips from the lows to hit 118.65. But in the past few months the gains have stalled and recently the trendline underpinning the move higher has been broken, as you can see on the weekly chart below.
We’re already down by almost 700 pips right now but bodies in motion tend to stay in motion. And currencies in a downtrend tend to continue in that direction. I’m targeting more of the same during A…
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Singapore Dollar Downtrend Rejected

fxsurprise8 发布31 8月 为分析在 USD/SGD , Target: 1.3618, 日期: 3 于 10月, 12:00 GMT  在 #Technical analysis #SGD #USD #USD/SGD #Fomc #Rejection #Singapore Dollar #Downtrend #Jackson Hole #Range Box
For a third time this year, the downtrend in the USD/SGD has been rejected. On the chart below we marked these 3 rejections with smaller rectangles. This rejection forces the pair back into its range. The general area of support is around 1.3300 to 1.3350. On the top side, the resistance is around 1.3800 to 1.3841.
This particular range has been unbroken since March of this year. But the USD/SGD has been trading undecided for over a year now. Let's take a look at this range on the weekly chart. …
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5 意见
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fxsurprise8 29 9月

The USD/SGD is still inside that 1.3300 - 1.3800 range. This month we hit a high of 1.3697 and a low of 1.3434 as prices fluctuated in an even smaller rectangle.

But despite the ups and down we're now quoted at 1.3639,  only 21 pips away from my forecast. So far everything is going according to plan.

Let's hope for a calm month end so prices stay near where they are.

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fxsurprise8 30 9月

Another range-bound day in the Singapore Dollar. Today we opened at 1.3640 then rallied to a high of 1.3665. This is below the monthly high as prices have been subdued by the selling at resistance.

From here we fell back down on general US Dollar weakness and a low of 1.3621 was hit. We're currently quoted at 1.3627, close to the daily lows and only 9 pips away from my forecasted price.

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fxsurprise8 1 10月

Time for a chart update!  The USD/SGD is still inside the 1.3300 - 1.3800 range noted in my original post. This month we hit a high of 1.3697 and a low of 1.3434 as prices traded in an even smaller range.

We closed on Friday at 1.3619, only 1 pip away from my forecasted price! This shows just how range-bound this pair has traded lately.

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fxsurprise8 3 10月

The USD/SGD is edging higher today. We opened the new week at 1.3618 and from here prices rallied to a high of 1.3644

The pair is currently quoted at 1.3640, 22 pips from my target. Let's hope for some help from the coming Monday session. The start of the week can be slow and frequently leads to a reversal of these opening moves.

The Monday European session could be even slower then usual tomorrow as Germany celebrates Unity day. Hopefully these circumstances will help keep prices firmly anchored close to my forecasted price. 

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fxsurprise8 4 10月

Time for a final update. The USD/SGD was quoted at 1.36441 at 12:00 on October 3rd. This is 26.1 pips or 0.192% away from my target.

On our chart above we can see that after the rejection on the downside, the pair stayed within the confines of the range noted in my original post (1.3300 - 1.3800). The area marked with a rectangle shows the price action during September.

The high during this month was 1.3697 while the low was at 1.3434. The open to close range was even smaller at 22 pips. This underscores how range-bound the USD/SGD has been trading lately and confirms my initial forecast.

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EUR/USD to Continue Directionless Trading

fxsurprise8 发布31 8月 为分析在 EUR/USD , Target: 1.1155, 日期: 3 于 10月, 12:00 GMT  在 #Technical analysis #EUR #USD #Ecb #EUR/USD #Fomc #Range #Range Box #Brexit #Directionless
The EUR/USD has been moving with no clear direction since May of this year. Look at the chart below. That large red bar shows Brexit day. We're now quoted at 1.1155, less then 10 pips away from the 50% retracement of that large move. That underscores how range-bound this pair has been in the past few months.
But things aren't looking great on the higher timeframes either. Notice how since about March of 2015 the Euro has been stuck in a relatively large range, marked with a rectangle on the char…
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3 意见
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fxsurprise8 29 9月

We're still trading inside the large rectangle show in picture two above. The total monthly range is only 204 pips or 1.8 percent.

So far my forecast has been stop on. Every rally is being use by sellers to unload more Euro and every drop is being used to buy on the cheap.

Take today for example. First we fell to a low of 1.1196. Then we rallied to a daily high of 1.1249 and we're now back down near the 1.1200 figure. The directionless trading in the EUR/USD continues.

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fxsurprise8 30 9月

More of the same for the Euro as we get yet another directionless trading day. Today we opened at 1.1221, fell to a low of 1.1153 around mid-day, only to rally hard later on some Deutsche Bank speculation.

A high of 1.1250 was hit, soon followed by a retracement. We're currently quoted at 1.1234, only 13 pips away from the daily open. The range-bound scenario outlined in my original post continues. The EUR/USD looks set for another monthly inside bar.

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fxsurprise8 3 10月

Time for another update! The past few days brought lot of volatility but no decisive movement. During all of the commotion a low of 1.1153 was hit, overshooting my target by only 2 pips. But this move was quickly reversed by a sharp rally higher to 1.1250. We are currently quoted just below the highs at 1.1230.

The sharp bounce right at the 1.1150s area confirms the validity of the level that I picked as a target. But with Germany celebrating Unity Day tomorrow, things could be slower then usual. This doesn't bode well for forecast because I'm still 75 pips away from my forecasted price.

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Yen Looks Overbought

fxsurprise8 发布30 6月 为分析在 USD/JPY , Target: 104.89, 日期: 1 于 8月, 12:00 GMT  在 #Technical analysis #Japan #USD/JPY #Fomc #Us Dollar #Reversal Pattern #Us Economy #Crisis #Japanese Yen #Stochastic
The Yen looks overbought. Normally a safe-haven currency, the Japanese Yen got bought up aggressively in the post-Brexit mayhem. But as we can see on the 4 Hour chart below, things are starting to change with prices possibly bottoming out. We have now retraced over 50% of the Brexit related move, with possibly more gains on the way.
There are signs of a bottom on longer-term charts as well. Notice below how the Stochastic has clearly hit oversold territory in the USD/JPY. The Stoch moved below 2…
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Some Calm for the Singapore Dollar?

fxsurprise8 发布31 5月 为分析在 USD/SGD , Target: 1.3776, 日期: 1 于 7月, 12:00 GMT  在 #Technical analysis #Consolidation #USD/SGD #Fomc #Us Dollar #Singapore #Singapore Dollar #Range Bound #No Trends
The Singapore Dollar had a volatile year. First the bears took prices down from a high of 1.4440 in January to a low of 1.3349 in April. This month we're seeing a bit of a US Dollar resurgence with prices closing 335 pips higher in May. But as you can see on the chart below, the last two weekly candles were small, indicating slowing down of the price action.
Looking at things on a more long-term basis, the USD/SGD is now trading near the same levels as back in March of 2015. So all that volatili…
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More Losses for the Euro

fxsurprise8 发布31 5月 为分析在 EUR/USD , Target: 1.0721, 日期: 1 于 7月, 12:00 GMT  在 #Technical analysis #Yellen #Euro #Support #EUR/USD #Fomc #Us Dollar #Selling #Downtrend #Single Currency
May wasn't kind to the Euro. The pair lost 319 pips and is currently quoted at 1.1133, near to the monthly lows at 1.1098. Looks like we're going to have a close just above the lows, this is a bearish signal on its own. It clearly demonstrates the downward momentum in this pair.
I'm betting on more losses for Europe's single currency. I'm pinning my target at 1.0721, right above this year's low at 1.0710. I think the bears will have a hard time breaking past this level, at least on the first try…
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Singapore Dollar to Stay Put

fxsurprise8 发布31 10月 为分析在 USD/SGD , Target: 1.4010, 日期: 1 于 12月, 12:00 GMT  在 #Technical analysis #SGD #USD/SGD #Fomc #Us Dollar #Singapore #Singapore Dollar #Range Bound #Range Trading
The rally in the USD/SGD seems to be finally over. In October the pair closed lower by a large 229 pips to 1.4010. As we can see on the picture below, the USD/SGD rolled over and the short-term trend is now down. But it's also visible that prices haven't made any headway in the past two weeks. In fact the Dollar seems to be gaining back some of that lost ground.
Why is this happening? Let's remind our readers of the long-term trend. On the weekly chart below we can see the large gains in this pa…
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Some Hawkish Comments from FOMC Members

fxsurprise8 20 9月的订阅  在 #Trader's blog #Fomc #Fomc Meeting #Trader's Contest
There are some hawkish comments from two different FOMC members this weekend. The first is John Williams, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. He says that the call to keep rates steady in September was a close one and he expects rates to rise later this year. More on this HERE.
James Bullard, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, says that he would've voted for a rate rise and added that the case for policy normalization is strong because the FOMC objectives hav…
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FOMC Leads to Dollar Sell-Off

fxsurprise8 更新17 9月  在 #Trader's blog #USD #Fomc #Fomc Meeting #Trader's Contest
The long awaited FOMC meeting lead to a Dollar sell-off. The Fed didn't raise rates (this was expected) but they also sounded way more dovish this time around, citing foreign risks to growth and low inflation. Chairwoman Yellen also expressed her opinion that the labor market is far from full employment, if you take into account other factors like under-employment.
This was a slight surprise for me since I expected a more hawkish statement. I longed the USD/JPY in the aftermath of the announceme…
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Biased Toward USD

fxsurprise8 14 9月的订阅  在 #Trader's blog #USD #Fomc #Fomc Meeting #Trader's Contest
The all-important FOMC meeting is now only 3 days away and we're already seeing plenty of volatility and two sided moves. The Euro opened the session at 1.1331, rallied to a high of 1.1372 then fell 90 pips to a daily low of 1.1282. We eventually closed the day at 1.1315, only 16 pips in the red.
The Pound had an equally unimpressive session, with swings from high to low of 97 pips but ultimately the GBP/USD closed down by only 4 pips. The USD/JPY is the only one that made some headway, with a d…
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