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- Expectations of tapering will rise as labour market continues to show cumulative improvement
- Fed wants to be assured that any progress in labour market will be lasting
- Unemployment and and payrolls have clearly improved but other labour data has not
- FOMC decisions are dependant on data
- Forward guidance and asset buying separate tools but market sees them closely linked creating challenges for Fed
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Fed Bullard: Small taper would still leave very stimulative policy
How to trade a surprise Fed decision
Can the market really be this complacent heading into a Fed decision?
On September 18, the Fed burned many market watchers with a surprise decision not to taper. Six weeks later many traders plan to sleep through today’s FOMC decision, believing it will be similar to the previous statement. What is the risk of a surprise? In September, the Fed explained the decision not to taper like this:
Taking into account the extent of federal fiscal retrenchment, the Committee sees the improvement in eco…
On September 18, the Fed burned many market watchers with a surprise decision not to taper. Six weeks later many traders plan to sleep through today’s FOMC decision, believing it will be similar to the previous statement. What is the risk of a surprise? In September, the Fed explained the decision not to taper like this:
Taking into account the extent of federal fiscal retrenchment, the Committee sees the improvement in eco…
What to do with the FOMC announcement
We have the usual hyped-up stand-off ahead of the actual announcement. Stop me if you’ve heard this before but I will be waiting to see what actually happens rather than get involved in a crap shoot prior ( and I choose my sporting reference carefully!)
The minutes from the last meeting showed the decision not to taper was a close call but the relevance of this stance has since been reduced/dismissed given the partial US govt shut-down and the less than accurate data releases since then.
So to t…
The minutes from the last meeting showed the decision not to taper was a close call but the relevance of this stance has since been reduced/dismissed given the partial US govt shut-down and the less than accurate data releases since then.
So to t…
Why the US dollar is sinking today
The market was reluctant to price in the lack of a taper, until now.
Over the course of the fiscal impasse it became clear the Fed wouldn’t taper in October and probably not December. The market shifted to the January FOMC as a date but with the new government shutdown deadline at January 15, even that’s in question. Some prominent market watchers are even talking about June 2014 for the first taper.
None of this is a surprise but the FX market was unable to sell the dollar until now. Before, th…
Over the course of the fiscal impasse it became clear the Fed wouldn’t taper in October and probably not December. The market shifted to the January FOMC as a date but with the new government shutdown deadline at January 15, even that’s in question. Some prominent market watchers are even talking about June 2014 for the first taper.
None of this is a surprise but the FX market was unable to sell the dollar until now. Before, th…
RBA Edwards: "I want to see a lower dollar"
From the Australian Financial Review (gated) overnight: Dollar rise frustrates RBA board
Reserve Bank of Australia board member John Edwards speaking about the US Federal Reserve decision not to start to ‘taper’, which saw the Australian dollar to a three-month high:
“I want to see a lower dollar and it’s going to take us longer to get there – so it’s not great,” said Dr Edwar…
Reserve Bank of Australia board member John Edwards speaking about the US Federal Reserve decision not to start to ‘taper’, which saw the Australian dollar to a three-month high:
“I want to see a lower dollar and it’s going to take us longer to get there – so it’s not great,” said Dr Edwar…
An interesting week for GBP/USD. New recent highs ???
Not since late January/early February this year have we seen cable with a tag of 1.6, and further appreciation the other side of that number has been tentative (previous highs of only 1.62 and change in May and September 2012). I don`t get the news that there is a huge head of steam in terms of positioning behind this move, but cable has certainly been a precious and rare friend of the hedge fund community since the latest uptrend started in July.
Important to remember that to model driven curre…
Important to remember that to model driven curre…