annatimone's Blog

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Fed Bullard: Small taper would still leave very stimulative policy

  • Expectations of tapering will rise as labour market continues to show cumulative improvement
  • Fed wants to be assured that any progress in labour market will be lasting
  • Unemployment and and payrolls have clearly improved but other labour data has not
  • FOMC decisions are dependant on data
  • Forward guidance and asset buying separate tools but market sees them closely linked creating challenges for Fed
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Dollar up to 98.50 as sterling and euro lose

Dollar yen got a bit nervy in the seconds leading up to the release, falling to 98.06 but then found it’s stride and has pooped up to 98.50, The euro popped to 1.3785 then dropped to 1.3728. Cable has fallen to 1.6025 but has held ahead of support at 1.6020.
Having done a quick text comparison from last months meeting there’s nothing of note between the texts so it’s business as usual. Nothing on the shutdown or Washington shenanigans and I think they may use this card at a later stage like next…
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Fed says it will await more evidence before QE taper

Highlights of the October 30, 2013 Federal Reserve’s FOMC statement:
  • Fed funds rate held at 0-0.25%, as expected
  • Monthly bond purchases remain at $85 billion/month, as expected
  • No change to forward guidance on interest rates
  • Fed says data since Sept meeting generally suggests economy continued to expand at a moderate pace
  • Repeats that downside risks to the outlook have diminished on net since last Fall
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mag avatar
mag 30 Paź

Thanks Anna

geula4x avatar
geula4x 30 Paź

+1 Liked: Nice summary! :-) IMHO we'll see FOMC effect fade soon, and EUR/USD resume upwards momentum... Happy trading :-)

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How to trade a surprise Fed decision

Can the market really be this complacent heading into a Fed decision?

On September 18, the Fed burned many market watchers with a surprise decision not to taper. Six weeks later many traders plan to sleep through today’s FOMC decision, believing it will be similar to the previous statement. What is the risk of a surprise? In September, the Fed explained the decision not to taper like this:
Taking into account the extent of federal fiscal retrenchment, the Committee sees the improvement in eco…
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stane2405 avatar
stane2405 30 Paź

well, I was surprised! my clock/time was 1 hour late, hehe

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What to do with the FOMC announcement

We have the usual hyped-up stand-off ahead of the actual announcement. Stop me if you’ve heard this before but I will be waiting to see what actually happens rather than get involved in a crap shoot prior ( and I choose my sporting reference carefully!)
The minutes from the last meeting showed the decision not to taper was a close call but the relevance of this stance has since been reduced/dismissed given the partial US govt shut-down and the less than accurate data releases since then.
So to t…
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stane2405 avatar
stane2405 30 Paź

my gut tells me that traders will still prefer to sell into that with the uncertainty = SELL WHAT ?? dollar?

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Forex Americas wrap: Nowotny cracks the whipsaw

Forex headlines for October 29, 2013:
• US retail sales Sept -0.1% vs 0.1% expected
• Retail sales control group +0.5% vs 0.4%
• ECB’s Nowotny: No realistic prospect of refi or deposit rate cut
• US October consumer confidence 71.2 vs 75.0 expected
• US Case-Shiller house price index +12.82% y/y vs 12.5%
• US Aug business inventories +0.3% vs +0.3%
• Carney says BOE won’t tighten until ‘real trajectory’ in recovery
• …
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mag avatar
mag 30 Paź

thanks Anna.

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Will Doctor Yellen prescribe a dose of inflation for the

The noises being made about a possible increases to QE are rising. A New YorkTimes story over the weekend adds further evidence that some are calling for more.
They note that the topic of discussion at the Fed may start to focus on inflation and whether more QE should be done to boost inflation up, to give the economy the boost it’s lacking.Harvard professor Kenneth Rogoff says that inflation needs to be embraced and that the Fed is being too meek. He wants inflation pushed up to 6% for a few ye…
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sonjatrader avatar

Peter Schiff comes to the easy conclusion than the new leader at FederalReserve is just as incapable as her predecessors of recognizing a dangerous asset bubble .Worse yet, a a diehard believer in the power of expansive monetary policy,Miss yellen would be much less likely to attack an asset bubble even if she were ever to recognize one before it burst

mimuspolyglottos avatar

It is just like bobsleigh sport. FED need steeper and steeper track to go down at the qualifying time forgeting to drive it. They think inertion and gravitation will do the job. And someone will see a crash of their bob close to VIP seats.

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S&P Yellen nomination a near to intermediate positive

Standard & Poor’s give two reasons that Janet Yellen’s nomination as Chairman of the Federal Reserve is a near-to-intermediate term positive:
  1. Yellen’s nomination provides markets with a sense of continuity of the Fed’s current monetary policy decision-making and communications process
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mag avatar
mag 15 Paź

We´ll see

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A debt ceiling solution is coming, here is when

Get used to more weeks like this, the fight over US debt will be a long, bitter struggle. As I write this article, it looks like there may be a short term deal to raise the debt ceiling this weekend avoiding financial catastrophe for the time being. A bigger deal is supposedly being negotiated however this row has been on-going for more than two years and so I am skeptical of any grand bargain.
The longer and more bitter the dispute becomes the more difficult it is for either side to eventuall…
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mag avatar
mag 13 Paź

yes, M.D.will indulge, is especulation.

mag avatar
mag 13 Paź

I agree with all article

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What is the probability of a US default?

As went enter day 10 of the US political soap opera, the market is still seemingly under the impression that a deal will get done and financial armageddon will be averted. I’m not sure I share it’s views and I feel the dollar is playing chicken with the deadline much like the two parties are with each other.
I want to hear what you guys and girls think, so what’s your percentage probability of the US defaulting?
Mine is 10/90 on a default/solution.
Let’s see if you share the markets optimism.…
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Nadin5794 avatar
Nadin5794 10 Paź

абсолютно убеждена,что это очередное искусственное стимулирование рынков как в декабре, январе и марте...

fdsaRUS avatar
fdsaRUS 10 Paź



рынки вчера впервые проявили реальные признаки опасений:
Вчера впервые доходность американских месячных векселей выросла выше 30 пунктов, когда банки отказались принимать их в качестве обеспечения из-за опасений, что они не будут выплачены. Ставка по 1-месячным векселям была выше ставки Libor впервые за 12 лет, что фактически означает, что корпорации могут брать необеспеченные кредиты по более низкой ставке, чем американское правительство. Нет сомнений, что векселя будут выплачены, но возможная задержка выплат побуждает инвесторов перемещать капитал в другие финансовые инструменты.

mag avatar
mag 13 Paź

I do not see it so clear, 30/70 defaut/solution

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