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Swissie may not leave the parity level just yet

al_dcdemo Posted 25 Apr. as Analysis on USD/CHF, Target: 0.9975, Date: 1st of June, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Daily Chart #USD/CHF #Falling Wedge #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Cycle High #Net Short Positioning #Monetary Policy Divergence
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
Swissie found strong demand near the intersection of the long term trendline that capped rallies in 2003, 2005, 2006, 2008, 2010 and 2015, and the t…
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al_dcdemo 14 May

UPDATE 5: Expected result of the French election spurred a pullback in euro and franc and, to a lesser extent, yen. U.S. dollar indisputably won the week, rising against all G10 currencies. Weaker than expected inflation and retail sales reports on Friday led to some profit taking but June rate hike expectations hardly budged. Some further reaction to the reports is possible in the days ahead. Following a neutral BOE QIR, U.K. data will be closely watched next week. Australian labour force report and Canadian inflation and retail sales are also at the top of the list.

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al_dcdemo 15 May

UPDATE 6: USD/CHF staged an impressive rally in the two days after the French election and then stalled ahead of 1.01. Weaker than expected inflation and retail sales reports from U.S. on Friday led to a sharp pullback, toward the midpoint of a larger consolidation pattern. The pullback retraced almost exactly half of the gains since last Monday, briefly extending back below the parity level. This level remains the immediate support and the next one comes in near 0.995. On the upside, 1.005 is the first hurdle to overcome before 1.01.

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al_dcdemo 21 May

UPDATE 7: In what was its worst week of the year, U.S. dollar lost ground against every G10 currency. Already soft start to the week after last Friday's inflation and retail sales reports was exacerbated by the political drama in the U.S. that has further shaken traders' confidence that the Administration will be able to deliver on its stimulus promises in due time. The biggest winners were euro and franc with Canadian dollar and pound not far behind. U.S. dollar index fell to the levels not seen since the U.S. election and closed the week near the low.

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al_dcdemo 25 May

UPDATE 8: As expected, FOMC meeting minutes didn't reveal anything particularly new. Weak Q1 GDP was dismissed in favour of strong employment growth. There was some caution regarding inflation by some members but was not a baseline view. The committee also discussed balance sheet reduction which could be seen as a hawkish development. Minutes are basically data two weeks old and the market responded with U.S. dollar selling. It is Fed speakers and how they will shape expectations for a June hike that the market is focused on.

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al_dcdemo 29 May

UPDATE 9: Last week was a relief for the dollar as it managed to rise, albeit marginally, against euro, franc, yen, and Australian dollar. Pound sold off after election polls showed PM May lost some support. Canadian dollar capitalized on oil strength, even though OPEC didn't go out on a limb this time around. New Zealand dollar continued its snap-back after bottoming near 0.685. European flash CPI and U.S. NFP report will be two events that the market will closely watch this week. Both have the potential to shape upcoming ECB and Fed decisions.

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Kiwi still between 50 and 100 DMA

al_dcdemo Updated 27 May  in #Trader's blog #Support #Resistance #NZD/USD #Falling Wedge #D1 Chart #Lower Highs
Kiwi has been contained between 50 DMA and 100 DMA for three weeks. It may look a bit heavy with lower highs and lower lows but what it has been carving out is a falling wedge which is generally a bullish pattern.
Strong support in 0.6700 - 0.6750 band (February highs, 100 DMA) has been holding well with 0.6650 - 0.6670 (late March low, 200 DMA) the next important area. Initial resistance at 0.6775 is followed by 0.6825 (April - May support/resistance line, 50 DMA).
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