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タグ・フィルター:  Falling Wedge
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GBP/NZD will rebound

GBP/NZD will rebound from the support level of 1.8833. The pair is also tracing a falling wedge which is bullish.
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AUD/CAD will breakout

AUD/CAD is nearing the upper wedge line and will breach it and breakout. The pair trace a A-B-C-D-E Triangle inside the wedge pattern.
Major Support and Resistant Levels are
1.0348
1.0196
1.0082
0.9886
0.9717
0.9580
Day Chart
Week Chart
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mrlfx 2018年01月19日

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mrlfx 2018年01月19日

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mrlfx 2018年01月19日

AUDCAD didn't rise fast as expected but the trend seem bullish still.

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Swissie may not leave the parity level just yet

Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
Swissie found strong demand near the intersection of the long term trendline that capped rallies in 2003, 2005, 2006, 2008, 2010 and 2015, and the t…
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al_dcdemo 2017年05月14日

UPDATE 5: Expected result of the French election spurred a pullback in euro and franc and, to a lesser extent, yen. U.S. dollar indisputably won the week, rising against all G10 currencies. Weaker than expected inflation and retail sales reports on Friday led to some profit taking but June rate hike expectations hardly budged. Some further reaction to the reports is possible in the days ahead. Following a neutral BOE QIR, U.K. data will be closely watched next week. Australian labour force report and Canadian inflation and retail sales are also at the top of the list.

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al_dcdemo 2017年05月15日

UPDATE 6: USD/CHF staged an impressive rally in the two days after the French election and then stalled ahead of 1.01. Weaker than expected inflation and retail sales reports from U.S. on Friday led to a sharp pullback, toward the midpoint of a larger consolidation pattern. The pullback retraced almost exactly half of the gains since last Monday, briefly extending back below the parity level. This level remains the immediate support and the next one comes in near 0.995. On the upside, 1.005 is the first hurdle to overcome before 1.01.

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al_dcdemo 2017年05月21日

UPDATE 7: In what was its worst week of the year, U.S. dollar lost ground against every G10 currency. Already soft start to the week after last Friday's inflation and retail sales reports was exacerbated by the political drama in the U.S. that has further shaken traders' confidence that the Administration will be able to deliver on its stimulus promises in due time. The biggest winners were euro and franc with Canadian dollar and pound not far behind. U.S. dollar index fell to the levels not seen since the U.S. election and closed the week near the low.

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al_dcdemo 2017年05月25日

UPDATE 8: As expected, FOMC meeting minutes didn't reveal anything particularly new. Weak Q1 GDP was dismissed in favour of strong employment growth. There was some caution regarding inflation by some members but was not a baseline view. The committee also discussed balance sheet reduction which could be seen as a hawkish development. Minutes are basically data two weeks old and the market responded with U.S. dollar selling. It is Fed speakers and how they will shape expectations for a June hike that the market is focused on.

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al_dcdemo 2017年05月29日

UPDATE 9: Last week was a relief for the dollar as it managed to rise, albeit marginally, against euro, franc, yen, and Australian dollar. Pound sold off after election polls showed PM May lost some support. Canadian dollar capitalized on oil strength, even though OPEC didn't go out on a limb this time around. New Zealand dollar continued its snap-back after bottoming near 0.685. European flash CPI and U.S. NFP report will be two events that the market will closely watch this week. Both have the potential to shape upcoming ECB and Fed decisions.

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EUR/JPY Bullish Reversal

Weekly Elliott Wave Analysis
Correction wave C is very near to it's end at 109.48 where waves 5, A, B and C have created a Falling Wedge that gives a prediction of a new up trend wave starter or a moving side ways for the next period.
Daily Elliott Wave Analysis
Correction wave C on the daily view has not reached it's (V) end wave as it would be expected that wave (V) in proportion to wave (I) to end at 109.9 however the brexit news has weaken the EUR against JPY pushing wave (III) further end t…
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Kiwi still between 50 and 100 DMA

Kiwi has been contained between 50 DMA and 100 DMA for three weeks. It may look a bit heavy with lower highs and lower lows but what it has been carving out is a falling wedge which is generally a bullish pattern.
Strong support in 0.6700 - 0.6750 band (February highs, 100 DMA) has been holding well with 0.6650 - 0.6670 (late March low, 200 DMA) the next important area. Initial resistance at 0.6775 is followed by 0.6825 (April - May support/resistance line, 50 DMA).
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AUD/USD is bearish

AUD/USD is probably tracing the 4th wave of the 5 emotive elliot waves traversing withing a falling wedge.
For the analysis, elliot waves, falling wedge pattern and support and resistant levels are used.
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Consolidation with bearish tilt

Currency Pair:Cad/Chf
Indicators: technical patterns and Sma50(red)+ Sma200 (blue)
Current price: 0.7343
Trend: consolidation
Possible trading range:0.72-0.75
Forecast:The presence of a falling wedge will encourage the bulls to try an upside breakout, but this will be a short-lived one because the fundamentals are against such a move. The loonie is under attack as oil prices continue to decline due to a higher oil output and weak demand
My target: 0.7423
Weekly chart (below)
Daily chart (below)
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marius24 2015年08月10日

update:on the 4 hour chart the bulls managed to design a double bottom with its neckline situated around 0.7490. So far the bears ignored this pattern and dragged the price below that neckline. The outlook remains bullish.

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marius24 2015年08月19日

update: it seems that the bulls don't have enough power to maintain the price above 0.7490 which represents an important bullish breakout from a double bottom. Anyway the outlook remains confusing and inclined more towards a bearish bias. Current price - 0.7458

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marius24 2015年08月25日

update: It touched 0.6965 yesterday once the panic showed up into the stocks market all around the world. The price now is hovering at around 0.7113 with 300 pips lower than my target. The outlook favours a bearish continuation.

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Bullish prospects in the sight

Currency Pair:Aud/Chf
Indicators: technical patterns and Sma50(red)+ Sma200 (blue)
Current price: 0.7058
Trend: downtrend
Possible trading range:0.69- 0.73
Signals:The presence of a falling wedge on the daily chart plus a double bottom in process of completion on the 4 hour chart represents enough technical elements for a bullish outlook
Forecast:The SNB is present on the market in order to avert any CHF appreciations. On the other side the aussie may have some chances to experience a pause in i…
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marius24 2015年08月10日

update:this pair has rallied since i put the prediction. The bullish moved has been backed by a double bottom (4 hour) broken to the upside at around 0.7128. Even more another bullish pattern seems to be underway ( inverted H&S). The outlook for short term is consolidation.

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marius24 2015年08月19日

update: I was right last time saying that the outlook for short term was consolidation. The price fell back from 072.80 to 71.20 and this move is another step for an emerging inverted H&S pattern located on the daily chart. Now we need one more leg higher in order to have the right shoulder completed. The outlook remains range bound trading and the current price is 0.7160

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I am still bearish on this pair

Currency Pair:Eur/Usd
Indicators: technical patterns and Sma50(red)+ Sma200 (blue)
Current price: 1.2226
Trend: very strong downtrend
Possible trading range:1.20-1.25
Signals: THe fact that a recent bullish breakout from a falling wedge has been ignored by the bears gives me a lot of reasons to be short in the following period. THat breakout has appeared at around 1.2440 managing to send the price not higher than 1.2570.
Fundamentals: THe interest rates in the USA are ready to make a first lifto…
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marius24 2015年01月08日

Update: Curent price- 1.1812 and the outlook remians very bearish due to a recent breakout to the downside at around 1.1876 of a bearish massive double top situated on the monthly chart.

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marius24 2015年01月19日

update: Current price - 1.1618 and unfortunately my target situated at 1.2165 has little chances to be retested anytime soon,given the fact that the QE will be a sure thing on 22 Jan

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Further consolidation with a bullish tilt in the sight

Currency Pair:Gbp/Usd
Indicators: technical patterns and Sma50(red)+ Sma200 (blue)
Current price: 1.6020
Trend: very strong downtrend
Possible trading range: 1.58-1.63
Signals: if price manages to break the downtrend line belonging to that massive falling wedge( daily chart), then we must expect to see higher rates in pound/dollar as high as 1.63
Fundamentals: any rise in interest rates from BOE is quite far away at this moment as long as Europe struggles with disinflationary risk + a more hawki…
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marius24 2014年11月10日

update: the UK economy is no longer suitable for a rise in interest rates and further upbeat US data have weighed negatively on the pound in the last days triggering a drop of 232 pips from 1.6020 to 1.5788. Due to some taking profit in the long dollar , gbp/usd has jumped toward 1.5911 and from here i expect a consilidation area with a slight bullish tilt.

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marius24 2014年11月20日

update: the price is at 1.57 too far from my target which is placed at 1.61. Only a fall in tha dollar  can make this forecast to enter once again in my attention

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marius24 2014年11月26日

update:a double bottom broken at 1,5734 has some chance to trigger a significant rally here ( 4 hour chart )

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