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Swissie headed towards parity again

al_dcdemo Posted 23 Oct. as Analysis on USD/CHF, Target: 0.9875, Date: 1st of December, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Daily Chart #USD/CHF #Fake Breakout #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Balanced Positioning #Monetary Policy Divergence #Parity Level
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
USD/CHF broke below the trendline drawn off of 2011, 2014, 2015 and 2016 lows (spikes excluded) in May. The pair then broke below 200 week SMA and p…
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al_dcdemo 17 Nov.

UPDATE 6: The U.S. dollar ended the week lower against European currencies and yen, and higher against the commodity bloc. If we look at these currencies from the yield perspective, it was actually a typical risk-off week, albeit with reduced volatility.

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al_dcdemo 22 Nov.

UPDATE 7: USD/CHF started the week on a strong note but then gave back all the gains and is currently holding onto 0.9875 - 0.99 support area. A break below it would probably mean another shot at 0.98 - 0.985. Watch out for SNB Jordan's speech tomorrow. I wonder what would happen if he somehow forgets to mention that the franc is "still overvalued".

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al_dcdemo 23 Nov.

UPDATE 8: FOMC Minutes highlighted the division among officials on inflation outlook, though majority still think the inflation will ultimately pick up. December hike is virtually a done deal but what comes after that will increasingly hinge on inflation progress. U.S. dollar was sold ahead of and after the release.

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al_dcdemo 29 Nov.

UPDATE 9: Progress on U.S. tax reform, better than expected GDP revision and Janet Yellen with some hawkish comments have all been welcomed by U.S. dollar bulls. Yet the currency struggled to make any significant headway today. Markets have continuously underestimated Fed's resolve to normalize rates in this cycle.

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al_dcdemo 1 Dec.

UPDATE 10: As opposed to USD/JPY, USD/CHF hasn't been able to recover from yesterday's fall. With EUR/CHF near the new cycle-high, it shouldn't come as a surprise that Swissie decided to mirror EUR/USD rather than follow risk sentiment. 0.98 is about to get retested.

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USD/CHF fails above 0.98

al_dcdemo Posted 11 Oct.  in #Trader's blog #Euro #Support #Resistance #USD/CHF #North Korea #Fake Breakout #U S Dollar #D1 Chart #Catalonia
U.S. dollar has been a laggard so far this week while euro gained some traction after it reclaimed 1.175. That's a recipe for Swiss franc gains while Catalan and North Korea crises still simmer in the background.
USD/CHF broke above both 200 DMA and 0.98 last week and touched 2017 trendline but sellers were waiting and took the pair back below both levels. 0.97 is the next target and then 100 and 50 DMA near 0.965. The mentioned 0.98 level should hold while sellers remain in the driver's seat.
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0.95 - 0.98 range to contain Swissie in October

al_dcdemo Posted 24 Sep. as Analysis on USD/CHF, Target: 0.9625, Date: 1st of November, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Daily Chart #USD/CHF #Fake Breakout #Range Trading #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Balanced Positioning #Monetary Policy Divergence
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
USD/CHF broke below the trendline drawn off of 2011, 2014, 2015 and 2016 lows (spikes excluded) in May. The pair broke below 200 week SMA and posted…
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al_dcdemo 11 Oct.

UPDATE 4: U.S. dollar has been a laggard so far this week while euro gained some traction after it reclaimed 1.175. That's a recipe for Swiss franc gains while Catalan and North Korea crises still simmer in the background. USD/CHF broke above both 200 DMA and 0.98 last week and touched 2017 trendline but sellers were waiting and took the pair back below both levels. 0.97 is the next target and then 100 and 50 DMA near 0.965. The mentioned 0.98 level should hold while sellers remain in the driver's seat.

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al_dcdemo 12 Oct.

UPDATE 5: As expected, there was nothing shocking in the Minutes of the most recent FOMC meeting. Division between those who believe that inflation is low due to transitory factors and those who think it's just a new normal, is nothing new but the market seemed to take this as a mildly dovish sign. U.S. dollar has already been weakening this week and, after a minor whipsaw, prices just continued on the path of least resistance. December hike from the Fed is pretty much priced in at this point. The focus is on inflation and tax reform, for clues as to what comes beyond that.

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al_dcdemo 13 Oct.

UPDATE 6: Earlier today a combo of U.S. inflation and retail sales reports for September was published. Inflation indicators came in somewhat weaker than expected but mostly higher than in August while retail sales were better than expected. Market focus was on inflation and initial reaction was to sell the U.S. dollar. Moves stalled after 50 - 70 pips and later reversed to various extents across dollar pairs as traders digested otherwise solid reports. The dollar will close the week lower against all major currencies.

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al_dcdemo 21 Oct.

UPDATE 7: U.S. dollar was the winner of this week. Solid inflation report last week and renewed prospects for a successful tax reform have been the fundamental drivers. Technically, 91 appears to have been more than just a short-term lower in the U.S. dollar index, with 95 the next target. 10-year U.S. treasury yield closed the week on its highs, just below the important 2.4% level, of which Bill Gross says is a trend-changing point. Apart from ECB and BOE next week, one of the most important events to watch out for is nomination of the, probably new, Fed Chair.

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al_dcdemo 27 Oct.

UPDATE 8: Cautious tones from ECB and BOC, weak Australian inflation one side and progress in U.S. politics and much better than expected Advance GDP reading on the other one were among the drivers of major currency pairs this week. BOE is expected to hike next week but it will be a one-off for now. The U.S. dollar was mostly bought up until around the time Europe started heading for the pub. Rumor of Trump leaning toward Powell as the next Fed chair sparked a bout of profit-taking. The dollar ended the week higher against every major currency bar yen.

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Kiwi looks poised to visit 0.75 sooner or later

al_dcdemo Posted 26 Jan. as Analysis on NZD/USD, Target: 0.7375, Date: 1st of March, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Daily Chart #NZD/USD #Fake Breakout #Rising Channel #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Net Short Positioning #Neutral Rbnz
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
Kiwi bottomed in August 2015 and has been mostly contained in a rising channel since then. Just as 50 day SMA crossed above 100 day SMA, the pair br…
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al_dcdemo 9 Feb.

UPDATE 6: The RBNZ left official cash rate at the record low of 1.75%. Rate statement doesn't differ much from the previous one but the bank says that "monetary policy will remain accommodative for a considerable period". Language on exchange rate didn't change but they'd like their currency lower. Kiwi started to fall before the announcement and is currently trading a cent below the pre-announcement levels. 0.72 is the immediate support but 0.71 - 0.7125 band, where 50, 100 and 200 DMA converge, looks like a stronger one. 0.7225 - 0.7250 is the initial resistance.

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al_dcdemo 11 Feb.

UPDATE 7: U.S dollar rose against most of the major currencies last week. It snapped the multi-week decline against euro, franc and New Zealand dollar. Gains were more modest against yen, Canadian dollar and pound. Australian dollar was the only major currency to record a narrow win. Unless Trump starts pushing in the direction of a weak dollar policy, and perhaps even, the dollar should strengthen against low-yielders over the medium term. That said, it will be difficult to meet many market participants' expectations of at least two rate hikes by the Fed this year.

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al_dcdemo 18 Feb.

UPDATE 8: It was another week of relatively tight ranges. With exceptions of yen and maybe pound, major currencies ended the week pretty much where they started. There's still a lot of uncertainty regarding tax cuts and fiscal stimulus in the U.S. but inflation is on the rise and Fed rate hikes are coming. One thing that keeps bulls cautious is Administration's remarks about too strong a dollar and Trump's comments regarding a "level playing field for currencies". The other one is simply expectations of reflation with flows into riskier assets and currencies.

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al_dcdemo 25 Feb.

UPDATE 9: Indecision in the markets continues. Major currencies mostly closed in the middle of their tight ranges. A mild risk-off has been notable with the yen buying gaining traction, in part due to French election hedging. Speculators are building longs in commodity currencies and covering shorts in low-yielders bar the euro. The main event in the week ahead is U.S. president Trump's speech to Congress, in which he is expected to announce his "phenomenal tax plan". Failure to meet market's expectations could see the dollar sell-off.

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al_dcdemo 28 Feb.

UPDATE 10: Major currencies opened the week on a similar note that they ended the last one. The U.S. dollar started on the back foot but stormed back later in the day. Month-end flows and some position-squaring ahead of the important Trump speech tomorrow could be in part responsible for this. Euro, yen, cable and Canadian dollar have seen the most activity while franc and antipodean dollars have traded in tighter ranges. NZD/USD is stabilizing near 0.72, above 50, 100 and 200 DMA. The path of least resistance is to the upside still.

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Cable sold above 50 DMA

al_dcdemo Updated 28 Nov.  in #Trader's blog #GBP/USD #Support #Resistance #Fake Breakout #Big Figure #Range Trading #D1 Chart
Cable broke above 50 DMA and traded up to 1.2530 in the first half of the Asian session before pulling back below the big figure in the second half. There was no follow-through and the pair was then sold down to 1.2380 by the end of the European session.
1.2350 - 1.24 is the initial support followed by a stronger one near the three-week range bottom at 1.23. 50 DMA, which currently runs just below 1.25, is the first obstacle to overcome on the upside before 1.2525 - 1.2550 and 1.2675 - 1.27 band…
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Gonchar 28 Nov.

Словения рулит!!!

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al_dcdemo 29 Nov.

Thank you!

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Cable slows into 1.30

al_dcdemo Updated 10 Aug.  in #Trader's blog #Boe #Nfp #GBP/USD #Fake Breakout #Short Squeeze #D1 Chart
Cable has looked heavy since last Thursday's BOE meeting. Friday's NFP report didn't do it any favours. The pair has posted five consecutive down days since last Wednesday.
That said, bears were not really convincing so far this week as was not yesterday's (fake) breakout below 1.30. A sustained hold below the big level will be needed or else we may see a larger short squeeze.
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Summer markets today

al_dcdemo Updated 17 Aug.  in #Trader's blog #Support #Resistance #EUR/USD #Fake Breakout #Range Trading #H1 Chart
Following last week's volatility, sparked by PBOC yuan devaluation, this week started as one would expect given that it's summer. Lacklustre Asian ranges and fake breakouts in European trading is what we have been seeing today.
Euro broke below 1.1075 - 1.1090 (50 DMA, Weekly Pivot Point, Daily Support 1, Thursday's low) to then sharply reverse back above 1.11 level. 1.1115 - 1.1130 (High Of Day, H1 50 MA, Daily Pivot Point) is the initial resistance.
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fxsurprise8 18 Aug.

hey is chat down for u too?

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al_dcdemo 18 Aug.

Nope. It works as it should.

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AUD/USD to consolidate in August

al_dcdemo Posted 30 July as Analysis on AUD/USD, Target: 0.7425, Date: 1st of September, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD/USD #Breakout #Consolidation #Demand #Fake Breakout #Range #Easing Bias #May 2010 Low #Real Breakout
Monthly chart:
As most major pairs, Aussie accelerated its decline in the first month of the year. After a bit of consolidation it convincingly broke below 0.80 level and 50.0% retracement of the 2001 to 2011 uptrend. In the following four months it traded mostly between 0.7550 and 0.7950, but broke higher in the end of April. The breakout proved to be fake as the pair returned back to the range in May and then broke in the opposite direction in July.
Weekly chart:
Demand at 0.75 (level touted …
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al_dcdemo 10 Aug.

UPDATE 4: Australian NAB Business Confidence (and few other lower-tier reports), Chinese Industrial Production, US retail sales and PPI reports are macroeconomic data points that will be watched in the week ahead. However, technicals are more important at the moment and the main question is how far the Aussie will extend before sellers step back in. If the RBA doesn't cut Cash Rate below 2.00% while the Australian economy recovers, 0.7235 may as well turn out to be the bottom.

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al_dcdemo 15 Aug.

UPDATE 5: The most notable event this week was the PBOC yuan devaluation, which impacted the pair strongly. PBOC weakened yuan fix three times: Tuesday (-1.9%), Wednesday (-1.6%) and Thursday (-1.1%). Second adjustment sent the pair to new six-year lows below 0.7250 but it bounced sharply from there and then went sideways for the remainder of the week. The result is a nice hammer on the weekly chart.

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al_dcdemo 16 Aug.

UPDATE 6: Apart from Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes from the last RBA meeting, there's nothing of note on the calendar for the week ahead from Australia. Provided that there won't be any further PBOC shocks and that US inflation comes out around consensus, this relative lack of noise may allow for a clearer view of the pair's near term direction. I think the risk is to the upside, though.

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al_dcdemo 28 Aug.

UPDATE 7: Compared to weekly ranges in few other risk sensitive pairs, week in the Aussie was relatively calm. The range was defined on Monday when turmoil in global markets sent the pair within a striking distance from the big 0.70 level. The pair spent the remaining four trading days in that range while volatility has been falling towards the end of the week. It looks as a blow-off bottom, but it may not be.

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al_dcdemo 29 Aug.

UPDATE 8: Next week will be big for the pair as we will get GDP, Retail Sales and Trade Balance reports along with plethora of lower-tier economic indicators. On top of that, RBA will meet on Tuesday. US will release ISM Manufacturing PMI, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and NFP reports. Technically, if the blow-off bottom hypothesis is correct, the pair has to rise, preferably from the off. Initial resistance is seen in 0.7200 - 0.7250 band.

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AUD/USD to break lower

al_dcdemo Posted 30 June as Analysis on AUD/USD, Target: 0.7275, Date: 3rd of August, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD/USD #Fake Breakout #Range #Weakness #Easing Bias #Higher Lows #Rba Governor Stevens #May 2010 Low #Spring Pattern
Monthly chart:
As most major pairs, Aussie accelerated its decline in the first month of the year. After a bit of consolidation it convincingly broke below 0.80 level and 50.0% retracement of the 2001 to 2011 uptrend. In the following four months it traded mostly in 0.7550 - 0.7950 range, but broke higher in the end of April. The breakout proved to have been fake as the pair returned back to the range in May.
Weekly chart:
Should the downtrend resume, some demand may come in at 0.75 (level tout…
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al_dcdemo 25 July

UPDATE 8: The latest fall stalled near January 2009 high (0.7268). Below that, 0.72 (61.8% retracement of the 2001 to 2011 uptrend, 76.4% retracement of the 2008 to 2011 rally), 0.71 (trendline drawn off of 2001 and 2008 lows) and 0.70 (big figure level) shall come into play. The pair so far failed to break back above 0.73. Further resistance is seen at the broken Monday low near 0.7325.

WallStreet6 avatar
WallStreet6 28 July

Great analysis and it could land really close to target!

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al_dcdemo 31 July

Thanks! Yep, this one looks promising. :)

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al_dcdemo 31 July

UPDATE 9: Aussie posted three new six-year lows this week, but none of them was able to attract sufficient orderflow to spur stronger downward momentum. The pair's range was the smallest of the seven major pairs, just over 130 pips. However, the pair spent most of the week in even smaller, 100 pip, range. This week concludes five weeks of losses and the month in which the pair lost four cents.

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al_dcdemo 1 Aug.

UPDATE 10: Week ahead will be important one for the pair as the RBA meets and we will be given clues as to where they are standing with regard to the monetary policy. January 2009 high (~0.7270) is the first support level to break, if the downtrend is to continue. Below that we have 76.4% retracement of the 2008 to 2011 rally (~0.7210) and 61.8% retracement of the 2001 to 2011 uptrend (~0.7180). Initial resistance may be found around 0.7350.

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EURo doesn't like the upside

al_dcdemo Updated 19 June  in #Trader's blog #Euro #Cpi #EUR/USD #Fed #Greece #Fake Breakout #Ascending Triangle
Euro's break above the ascending triangle, formed over the past three weeks, proved to be fake and the pair is now heading towards the lower extreme of the pattern. Greece uncertainty has outweighted wavering Fed and weaker US CPI print as we are heading into the weekend.
Direction is unclear at the moment, the above-mentioned pattern will need to be convincingly broken either way to establish bullish or bearish bias. Supply band: 1.1400 - 1.1450. Possible demand band: 1.1250 - 1.1300.
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