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EUR/TRY Still Can't Break Past Resistance

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Ago as Analysis on EUR/TRY, Target: 4.1110, Date: 2 di Ottobre, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR #Resistance #Eurozone #Weekly #Turkey #EUR/TRY #Try #Range Bound #Turkish Lira
The EUR/TRY still can't break the important resistance around 4.17 - 4.18 Euros. As we can see on the chart below, the pair tried hard to break free only to be pushed back down below this level.
But I'm not ready to bet on EUR/TRY losses just yet. On the lower time-frames (below) we're seeing the struggle as well. All summer the pair has stayed ranged-bound. I see no reason for this to change now, so betting on more of the same and prices staying near here seems like a prudent choice.
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EUR/GBP Bounces at Support

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Dic as Analysis on EUR/GBP, Target: 0.85216, Date: 1 di Febbraio, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #GBP #Euro #Support #Resistance #Eurozone #EUR/GBP #Pound #Levels #Brexit
The EUR/GBP finally ended its post-Brexit slump by bouncing at the support area noted on the chart below. Price bottomed out at 0.8304 during December, just below the 0.8327 support and above the 0.8248 support level. With the downtrend over, I'm not willing to bet on major increases in this pair yet.
The reason why can be seen on the picture below. During December we moved between a high of 0.8304 and a high of 0.8666. This is a fairly small amount for a major currency. But what really paints t…
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fxsurprise8 31 Gen

The EUR/GBP opened the month at 0.8510 and is now quoted at 0.8579, not even 70 pips higher. The range-bound behavior this continues for a second month.

As we said in our original post, during December the pair had an open to close range that was at only 54 pips.

The current price is only 60 odd pips away from my target, so hopefully we'll get a small drift lower into month end.

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EUR/GBP Enters a Cluster of Levels

fxsurprise8 Posted 30 Nov as Analysis on EUR/GBP, Target: 0.8468, Date: 2 di Gennaio, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #GBP #EUR #Europe #Support #Resistance #Eurozone #EUR/GBP #Pound #Levels
The Pound is not having a good year. It's down against almost all majors and that includes the Euro as well. This pair initially rallied to a high of 0.9326 this year, over 2,000 pips above he lows hit in November of last year. But as we can see on the first chart below, that may be changing.
We're now quoted at 0.8468, almost 900 pips below the highs. Notice how the EUR/GBP is now entering a cluster of levels, both resistance and support. On the downside we have 0.8248 and 0.8335. On the upside…
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fxsurprise8 28 Dic

I'm happy to report that the forecast is going according to plan! We are currently quoted at 0.8519, after having traded as high as 0.8571 and as low as 0.8300.

Both the current price and the monthly range are well within the bounds I outlined in my original forecast, support at 0.8248 and 0.8335, resistance at 0.8729 and 0.9326, among many other levels.

The pair has so far acted as i should, bouncing between these support/resistance levels. With the end of year coming up, which is usually a slow time for currencies, I don't expect major changes in market sentiment.

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fxsurprise8 31 Dic

No major changes to report in this pair, currently we're trading at 0.8523 and that's where we closed 2016. We have a little bit more time to the January 2nd cut off point, so wish me luck!

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fxsurprise8 2 Gen

According to the charts, the EUR/GBP was quoted at 0.85174 on January 2nd at 12:00. This is 49.6 pips away from my forecasted price of 0.8468.

In percentage terms this is 0.58 percent price difference. This is not enough for the first place but hopefully I will land a position near the top.

I'm working on updating my charts from the original forecast. I will post them once I finish my work, later today.

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fxsurprise8 2 Gen

The picture above is an updated chart of my original forecast. The rectangle shows the price action for EUR/GBP during December.

Here's the scenario I forecasted. As the pair was  entering a cluster of levels, both resistance and support, I expected to see the pair bogged down inside these levels,producing a trading range during December.

As you can see on the pic, that's exactly what happened. We first bounced at 0.8304, between the support levels at 0.8248 and 0.8335.

The pair then rallied to near the resistance at 0.8729 but was rejected and proceeded to fall back down toward my target.

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Turkish Lira to Continue Stabilization

fxsurprise8 Posted 30 Nov as Analysis on EUR/TRY, Target: 3.6405, Date: 2 di Gennaio, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR #Eurozone #Long Term #Turkey #EUR/TRY #Try #Turkish Lira #Stabilization #Us Election
The month of November started out unusually busy for the EUR/TRY. This pair usually doesn't move much. But in the aftermath of the US election, we saw a spike all the way to the 3.6900 level. Over 20 days later and the pair still can't surpass the highs seen on November 10th. This shows that we're finally stabilizing.
But that's only reason number one why I'm betting on stabilization in the EUR/TRY. The second reason is shown on the hourly chart below. Notice how no clear momentum can be seen he…
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Elens94 1 Dic

Good work

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EUR/USD Bounces Off Long-Term Support

fxsurprise8 Posted 30 Nov as Analysis on EUR/USD, Target: 1.0596, Date: 2 di Gennaio, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Euro #Support #EUR/USD #Eurozone #Long Term #Us Dollar #Momentum #Support Levels #Single Currency
I think the losses for the Euro are coming to an end. Our first chart below shows reason number one. The pair recently bounced off 1.0522. This is a long-term support level that held up prices for the past 18 months. Not far from here we find another level, the 1.0462 swing low. This is a multi-year for the Euro. The last time the single currency traded below here was all the way back in 2003.
On our second chart we see a glimpse of the trading on the lower time-frame. Notice how during the past…
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fxsurprise8 28 Dic

Things are not going exactly as planned in the EUR/USD. While the pair managed to break the 1.0500 handle, it hasn't made much headway below the figure.

We spent the last two weeks of December swinging between 1.0400 and 1.0500. We are currently quoted at 1.0404.

This is certainly no consolation for my forecast, which remains off by almost 2 percent. But the end of the contest is still a good time away, so let's hope we bounce back on year-end flows.

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fxsurprise8 31 Dic

Things are looking up for my forecast! During the past few days the EUR/USD rallied over 120 pips to close the year at 1.0525. This is around 70 pips away from my forecast. Now this doesn't mean the contest is over, we still have few more days left until January 2nd.

There is still hope that mean reversion will continue to be a force here and push us higher still. We're coming up from oversold levels, like I noted in my original forecast. Plus the bounce at support lends more credence to the bounce story.

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Failed Breakout in EUR/TRY

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Mag as Analysis on EUR/TRY, Target: 3.282, Date: 1 di Luglio, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR #Euro #Volatility #Eurozone #EUR/TRY #Try #Range Trading #Turkish Lira
The EUR/TRY had a failed breakout in May. Prices rallied all the way to a high of 3.4218 before being pushed back down. We are currently quoted at 3.2820. This V-shaped pattern signals a reversal. In normal times this could mean extended losses for the pair.
But if we go higher in time-frames on the weekly, we can see that the EUR/TRY is inside a large wedge. This is also why prices had such a sharp reversal when they hit the top of this wedge. While the pair remains inside this formation, betti…
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EUR/JPY Monthly Range Cut in Half

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Mag as Analysis on EUR/JPY, Target: 123.271, Date: 1 di Luglio, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Ecb #Euro #EUR/JPY #Eurozone #Japanese Yen #Range Trading #Yen Pairs #Range Box #Half
The EUR/JPY had a slow month. We closed May higher by 152 pips or only 1.2 percent. We opened the month at 121.72 and closed it at 123.23. Even the high/low range is not much bigger at 316 pips. This compared with +600 pips ranges in each of the four previous months.
If we drill down on the lower time-frame charts this aimless volatility is even easier to notice. Until we break either 124.66 or 121.47 the prudent course of action is to bet on prices staying flat.
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More of the Same in EUR/SEK

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Mag as Analysis on EUR/SEK, Target: 9.2737, Date: 1 di Luglio, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #SEK #Euro #Eurozone #Sweden #EUR/SEK #Range Bound #Range Trading #Swedish Krona #Monthly Range
The EUR/SEK continues to trade locked in a relatively tight range. During May the total movement, low to high, was only 2.4 percent. The pair closed the month at 9.2706, barely 1 percent higher.
The long-term chart doesn't look any better for trend traders. Since the start of 2015 the EUR/SEK has been trading in a tight range between 9.0500 and 9.6800. Thus it seems logical to bet on more of the same for this pair. I'm forecasting 9.2737.
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fxsurprise8 1 Lug

The EUR/SEK is still trading range-bound between 9.0500 and 9.6800. But we are seeing some bids post-Brexit. Initially the pair got bought up to 9.59 on the panic but it's now down to 9.3860. This is still over 1% away from my forecast at 9.2737 so not enough for a top prize.

But there is still time and let's hope the post-Brexit Euro reversal continues here as well. Initially the single currency benefited from reversed carry trades but after the realization what Brexit means for the European Union we're seeing a lot of these safe-haven moves reverse.

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EUR/GBP Range-Bound in June

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Mag as Analysis on EUR/GBP, Target: 0.768, Date: 1 di Luglio, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #UK #Euro #Cable #Eurozone #EUR/GBP #Pound #Range Box #Congestion
THE EUR/GBP had a volatile few weeks. First we rallied to a high of 0.8116 then fell to a low of 0.7564. A lot of this movement is fundamental-based, linked with the coming UK referendum. But recent polls seem to indicate voters slowly congregating around the the ''Remain'' camp and this is bringing much needed stability back in GBP pairs.
My second point why I'm betting on a range in this pair is past history. After periods of high volatility, the EUR/GBP usually spends a long locked in a range…
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