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Multiple Years Range Remains Unbroken

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 May as Analysis on EUR/PLN, Target: 4.1787, Date: 3rd of July, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #PLN #Euro #Europe #EUR/PLN #Range Bound #Range Box #Single Currency #Congestion #Polish Zloty
The 5 years long range in the EUR/PLN is still in play. Since the start of 2011 this pair has moved without a clear trend or direction. We opened 2012 at 4.4464 and we're currently quoted at 4.1782. This is around 6 percent, a negligible price difference for several years of trading in the forex market. Most currency pairs moved that much in a two-three months.
If that doesn't convince you of the mean reverting nature of this pair then take a look at the blue line in the chart above. This is the…
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EURo Nearing Cluster of Previous Resistance Levels

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 May as Analysis on EUR/USD, Target: 1.1242, Date: 3rd of July, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR #USD #Europe #EUR/USD #Overbought #Resistances #Resistance Zone #Stochastic Indicator #Stochastic
The Euro is slowly becoming overbought. Look at the weekly chart below. We are already trading past the 80 level on the Stochastic Oscillator, a level which signifies an overbought market condition. But that on it's own shouldn't be traded upon.
Exhibit number two is the second picture below. We are nearing a cluster of previous resistance levels, starting from this month's high at 1.1268 to the 1.1302 spike on Trump election day. Higher up more levels can be found at 1.1370, 1.1428 and of cours…
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EUR/SEK Sticks Within Its Range

fxsurprise8 Posted 30 Apr. as Analysis on EUR/SEK, Target: 9.6445, Date: 1st of June, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #SEK #Ecb #Europe #EUR/SEK #Range Bound #Single Currency #Swedish Krona #Trump #Us Elections
The EUR/SEK is still within its long-term range (See chart below). Aside from a brief excursion during the Trump election, the rest of the time the pair is all contained.
On the lower time-frames we see a similar picture. Look at the 4 Hour chart below and all those zig-zags. Prices has been moving aimlessly this month, struggling to find direction.
With both charts saying more of the same (range) I'm inclined to bet on prices staying near the current market price of 9.6445.
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EUR/SEK Still in Years-Long Range

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Mar. as Analysis on EUR/SEK, Target: 9.5567, Date: 1st of May, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Europe #Support #Resistance #Range #EUR/SEK #Yearly Chart #Congestion #Swedish Krona #Trump
The EUR/SEK has been trading in years-long range. It briefly ventured outside of the bounds of this range immediately after the mayhem post-Trump election. This period is marked with a large rectangle. Soon after sanity returned, as can be seen on our first chart below.
The second picture shows a more recent snapshot from the latest month. We opened at 9.5573, then rallied to a high of 9.6295 only to get sold into a low of 9.4560 just few days later. From here however we got yet another mean-rev…
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EURo Should Stablize in January

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Dec. as Analysis on EUR/USD, Target: 1.05181, Date: 1st of February, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Euro #Europe #EUR/USD #Oversold #Us Dolar #Range Bound #Stochastic
Europe's single currency could finally stabilize in January. On the weekly chart below we can see that the trend has been down. But the Stochastic Oscillator is flashing oversold level at only 10. This means that the downtrend could be on its last legs.
On our next chart below we see that the EUR/USD had a surge of buying as we trade close to support. This happened soon after prices hit a low of 1.0372, which is very close to the monthly low at 1.0352. A high of 1.0652 was hit during the frenzie…
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EUR/GBP Enters a Cluster of Levels

fxsurprise8 Posted 30 Nov. as Analysis on EUR/GBP, Target: 0.8468, Date: 2nd of January, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #GBP #EUR #Europe #Support #Resistance #Eurozone #EUR/GBP #Pound #Levels
The Pound is not having a good year. It's down against almost all majors and that includes the Euro as well. This pair initially rallied to a high of 0.9326 this year, over 2,000 pips above he lows hit in November of last year. But as we can see on the first chart below, that may be changing.
We're now quoted at 0.8468, almost 900 pips below the highs. Notice how the EUR/GBP is now entering a cluster of levels, both resistance and support. On the downside we have 0.8248 and 0.8335. On the upside…
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4 Comments
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fxsurprise8 28 Dec.

I'm happy to report that the forecast is going according to plan! We are currently quoted at 0.8519, after having traded as high as 0.8571 and as low as 0.8300.

Both the current price and the monthly range are well within the bounds I outlined in my original forecast, support at 0.8248 and 0.8335, resistance at 0.8729 and 0.9326, among many other levels.

The pair has so far acted as i should, bouncing between these support/resistance levels. With the end of year coming up, which is usually a slow time for currencies, I don't expect major changes in market sentiment.

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fxsurprise8 31 Dec.

No major changes to report in this pair, currently we're trading at 0.8523 and that's where we closed 2016. We have a little bit more time to the January 2nd cut off point, so wish me luck!

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fxsurprise8 2 Jan.

According to the charts, the EUR/GBP was quoted at 0.85174 on January 2nd at 12:00. This is 49.6 pips away from my forecasted price of 0.8468.

In percentage terms this is 0.58 percent price difference. This is not enough for the first place but hopefully I will land a position near the top.

I'm working on updating my charts from the original forecast. I will post them once I finish my work, later today.

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fxsurprise8 2 Jan.

The picture above is an updated chart of my original forecast. The rectangle shows the price action for EUR/GBP during December.

Here's the scenario I forecasted. As the pair was  entering a cluster of levels, both resistance and support, I expected to see the pair bogged down inside these levels,producing a trading range during December.

As you can see on the pic, that's exactly what happened. We first bounced at 0.8304, between the support levels at 0.8248 and 0.8335.

The pair then rallied to near the resistance at 0.8729 but was rejected and proceeded to fall back down toward my target.

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EUR/GBP Stalls at Resistance Levels

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Oct. as Analysis on EUR/GBP, Target: 0.8966, Date: 1st of December, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR #United Kingdom #Europe #Resistance #Cable #Rally #EUR/GBP #Pound #Brexit
The long-term trend in the EUR/GBP is undoubtedly up, prompted by the weaker Pound and exacerbated by Brexit. But the rally is hitting against some serious road-block in the face of several multi-year resistance levels. First we have the 2011 high at 0.9086. This is followed by the 2009 high at 0.9407 and finally we have the 2008 high at 0.9804.
During the past few weeks the pair topped out just below this second one of the resistance levels above and is now heading down. Take a look at the shor…
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Potentially Large Gains for Cable

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 May as Analysis on GBP/USD, Target: 1.4889, Date: 1st of July, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #GBP #GBP/USD #Europe #Cable #Gains #Movement #Uptrend #UK EU Referendum
We could potentially see large gains in Cable. The pair has been repressed in the past year by political instability. First by the Scottish independence referendum last year and now by the coming EU exit referendum. But as time goes on the 'Remain' camp continues to secure the lead. This could lead to some short squeezing as we get closer to the referendum date in June.
On the daily chart below we can see a completed reverse Head and Shoulders pattern. This signals that more gains could be on th…
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EUR/GBP Bulls and Bears to Continue Battle 0.7000

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 July as Analysis on EUR/TRY, Target: 0.7029, Date: 1st of September, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Ecb #Euro #Europe #Cable #EUR/GBP #EUR/TRY #Pound
NOTE THAT THIS IS A PREDICTION FOR EUR/GBP NOT EUR/TRY. I kept getting a bug ''you can't submit two predictions for the same instrument'' but I haven't submitted a EUR/GBP forecast for September 1st. The servers were acting up and mistakenly gave the error on Friday, July 31st. Hoping support can fix this for me.
The EUR/GBP had a strong downtrend this year. The Euro got sold across the board on QE, even against the GBP. These two generally move in tandem, as the weak Euro economy tends to have …
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Small Losses for the Euro

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 July as Analysis on EUR/USD, Target: 1.0820, Date: 1st of September, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Ecb #Federal Reserve #Euro #Europe #EUR/USD #Fed #Us Dollar
The diverging monetary policies between the ECB and the Fed will keep the downward pressure on the Euro. Looking at the longterm, the pair has been strongly trending lower since May of 2014. The EUR/USD lost over 3,500 pips before stabilizing somewhat in Q2 of this year.
But on the shorter time-frame things look complicated. The single currency has stayed mostly in a range since for the past 2-3 months. The pair is still exhibiting a slight bearish bias however. On the chart below we can see a d…
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