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EUR/PLN Returning to the Mean

fxsurprise8 Publié 31 mar comme Analyse sur EUR/PLN, Cible: 4.2411, Date: 1 de mai, 12:00 GMT  dans #Technical analysis #EUR #PLN #EU #Euro #Crisis #Election #EUR/PLN #Polish Zloty
The crisis after the Polish election threatened to rock the stability seen in the pair for the past few years. The EUR/PLN rallied from a low of 4.21 to a high of 4.51 in less then one month. But all this changed in the past few weeks.. The pair has fallen from a high of 4.51 to a low of 4.2357 yesterday. The pair is now heavily oversold as can be seen on he Stochastic indicator below.
But I'm not betting on a reversal in this pair. Why? Let's check out a longer chart. On the weekly chart below …
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fxsurprise8 26 avr

I got one thing right in my analysis and one thing wrong. First, the 4.24 support is exactly where the pair bounced higher from its oversold condition.

But the sharp gains in this pair since April 21st have moved the pair far away from my target, currently quoted at 4.3700.

Let's hope that some of the mean reversion I wrote about comes back and brings the pair downward.

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Pound to Rally After Election

fxsurprise8 Publié 30 avr comme Analyse sur GBP/USD, Cible: 1.5735, Date: 1 de juin, 12:00 GMT  dans #Technical analysis #GBP/USD #Cable #Us Dollar #Election
The Pound had some gains in April of about 520 pips. But on a percentage basis, this was a rally of only 3.3 percent compared to Euro's 4.6 percent. The relative under-performance for Cable is due to the upcoming elections on May 7th.
But with that risk out of the way, I expect the GBP/USD to surge higher and make up the lost ground. A conservative win would be better for Cable. Why am I targeting 1.5735? Look at the chart below. There is a cluster of resistance levels right above here at 1.5784…
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