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EUR/USD to continue to rise slowly

al_dcdemo Posted 27 Sep. as Analysis on EUR/USD, Target: 1.1425, Date: 2nd of November, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR/USD #Bullish Bias #Bounce #Downtrend #Economic Divergence #Channel Line #Turmoil #2005 Low #Upward Sloping Channel
Monthly chart:
The pair has been in a downtrend since May 2014. After it broke below the longer-term trendline that supports lows of years 2005, 2010 and 2012, a series of important levels gave way: 50.0% retracement (of the 2000 to 2008 uptrend), 2012 low, 2010 low, 2005 low and 61.8% retracement. The levels were falling like dominoes before the rout finally stopped near the declining channel-line (drawn off 2008 and 2010 lows). Further support comes in at 2003 low (1.0331) and then at 76.4% re…
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al_dcdemo 2 Oct.

UPDATE 2: It was a range-bound week in the pair, though the range was of decent size, nearly 200 pips. One notable characteristics is the convergence of 50, 100 and 200 DMA, which are forming a strong support zone near 1.1150. The pair was testing the zone while surprisingly weaker than expected US payroll report was released and that sent it all the way to the other side of the range.

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al_dcdemo 5 Oct.

UPDATE 3: Following poor NFP report, strongly rally and a decent pullback on Friday, Euro started the week as expected and rose 80+ pips from the open. The rally stalled ahead of resistance band at 1.1300 - 1.1325 (00's, Daily Resistance 1, Weekly Resistance 1, Previous Week High). It pulled back and is finding some support between 1.1235 and 1.1250 (H4 200 SMA, 50's, H4 100 SMA, Monthly Pivot Point). If it doesn't turn back up from here, 200 DMA (~1.1170) may come back into focus.

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al_dcdemo 9 Oct.

UPDATE 4: The pair broke from recent consolidation between 1.11 and 1.13. It gained 130 pips on the week despite that euro was sold strongly against commodity currencies. Combo of three daily moving averages (now at 1.1150 -  1.1200) proved as a solid support while also providing "golden cross" signal. 50 DMA crossed over 200 DMA last Friday, 100 DMA is just about to do the same.

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al_dcdemo 17 Oct.

UPDATE 5: The pair ended the week about 15 pips lower. Starting with sideways action on Monday, volatility picked up on Tuesday and especially on Wednesday when the pair broke above September high (1.1460) and tested 1.15. The test was successful and the pair pared all gains in the remaining two days. Weekly candle resembles a shooting star and implies a retest of recent range bottom near 1.11.

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al_dcdemo 19 Oct.

UPDATE 6: Euro started the week with lacklustre sideways trading in a 40-pip range. Highlight of the week is the ECB meeting on Thursday and, while many are expecting them to signal further easing, chances are that it won't happen yet. The pair is now trading comfortably above 50, 100 and 200 DMA and looks well supported in the dips in this weak dollar environment.

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EUR/USD to stay in upward sloping channel

al_dcdemo Posted 27 Aug. as Analysis on EUR/USD, Target: 1.1525, Date: 1st of October, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR/USD #Bullish Bias #Bounce #Downtrend #Economic Divergence #Channel Line #Turmoil #2005 Low #Upward Sloping Channel
Monthly chart:
The pair has been in a downtrend since May 2014. After it broke below the longer-term trendline that supports lows of years 2005, 2010 and 2012, a series of important levels gave way: 50.0% retracement (of the 2000 to 2008 uptrend), 2012 low, 2010 low, 2005 low and 61.8% retracement. The levels were falling like dominoes before the rout finally stopped near the declining channel-line (drawn off 2008 and 2010 lows). Further support comes in at 2003 low (1.0331) and then at 76.4% re…
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al_dcdemo 6 Sep.

UPDATE 4: Calendar for the week ahead is lacking significant Euroarea events, while US top tier events (PPI, Unemployment Claims, Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment) are scarce too. Technically, the pair is holding just above 50 and 100 DMA with an additional buffer of 80 pips down to 1.10 level. And, if all that fails, there's channel support zone (1.09 - 1.10) as the last line of defence for the bulls.

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al_dcdemo 11 Sep.

UPDATE 5: The pair spent the first part of this lacklustre week in a tight sideways congestion, slowly grinding up and managed to close post-ECB decline by Thursday. On the same day the pair broke higher and traded up at 1.13 before pulling back. It appears poised to close the week below that level, but it depends on what today's US session and pre-weekend flows may bring.

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al_dcdemo 12 Sep.

UPDATE 6: Next week will be big not only for the Euro but for all global markets. FOMC will meet on September 17th and it is quite possible that they will initiate the long awaited tightening of their monetary policy. If that materializes, the pair may find itself testing 1.10 and perhaps below, depending on the rhetorics from the committee. On the flipside, if they pass on the lift-off, the pair may get quick to bump into 1.15.

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al_dcdemo 25 Sep.

UPDATE 7: Euro staged an impressive rally yesterday but then reversed at the end of the European session. Hawkish remarks from Fed Chair Yellen right after the US market close led to another 60 pip decline and the pair is now trading near yesterday's opening levels. The pair is sandwitched between three important moving averages: 200 DMA above (~1.1190) and 50 and 100 DMA below (~1.1145). Judging by yesterday's strong rejection near 1.13, perhaps the most likely scenario is a retest of the seven-month channel bottom near 1.10.

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al_dcdemo 28 Sep.

UPDATE 8: There's plenty of economic data coming out from Europe this week, but nothing particularly market moving apart from perhaps inflation report. Fed speakers, CB Consumer Confidence, ISM Manufacturing PMI and NFP figures will be the main events from across the big pond. Ignoring DMAs, initial support is seen in 1.1090 - 1.1120 band (Previous Day Low, Previous Week Low, 00's, Weekly Support 1) and resistance between 1.1240 and 1.1260 (Daily Resistance 1, 50's, Monthly Pivot Point).

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EUR/USD into New Year on lows

al_dcdemo Posted 31 Dec. as Analysis on EUR/USD, Target: 1.1974, Date: 2nd of February, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR/USD #Confluence #Downtrend #Bearish Momentum #New Lows #Economic Divergence
Monthly chart:
The pair has broken the confluence of the following price levels:
1. Long term trendline that supports lows of years 2004, 2005, 2006, 2010 and 2012.
2. 200 month SMA.
3. 50% retracement of the October 2000 to July 2008 uptrend, which contained price in years 2008, 2010 and 2012.
The next two strong support levels are July 2012 low (1.2042) and June 2010 low (1.1875).
Weekly chart:
It has been pretty much one way market since the beginning of the downtrend in May 2014. There was …
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al_dcdemo 4 Jan.

Update 1: On the first trading day of the year, the pair has lost a cent. I has broken the 2012 low at 1.2042 and after a struggle ahead of 1.20 it closed 2 pips above the level. One might argue that this decline was a result of thin liquidity, but we will see if that was the case soon enough, when most major players will return to their desks next week.

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al_dcdemo 11 Jan.

Update 2: The pair has broken two important technical levels in the past week: 1.20 level and 2010 low (1.1875). The decline stopped just above 1.1750 level, which coincides with the channel line drawn of May 15, 2014 and October 3, 2014 lows. On Friday it tested the lows, turned around and closed the day on highs. That was the first positive day after six day of losses and the first day after nearly a month that we could say that the daily candle is bullish. In the run up to ECB meeting on January 22, further upside is possible, especially if it manages to break above 2010 low and hold there.

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al_dcdemo 18 Jan.

Update 3: It was another terrible week for the pair in which it has lost nearly three cents. After SNB announcement that it is discontinuing its three-year 1.20 EUR/CHF floor, the pair has broken 2005 low (1.1639) and by the end of the week also 1.15 level. It has traded down to 1.1450 but then corrected to around 1.1550 before the weekend. Market is now even more convincingly expecting sovereign QE by ECB on Thursday, but it is hard to say whether that is priced in by now. On the other hand, if they do not deliver, there is potential for a massive short squeeze.

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