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It seems as if the dollar move higher after more hawkish than expected Fed came with one day lag. ECB may have done more steps in the hawkish direction than expected by many yesterday, but their pledge to hold rates at present level at least until summer 2019 contrasts starkly with Fed's projected one hike per quarter. EUR/USD is down 300 pips from yesterday's high.
al_dcdemo's Blog
EUR/USD well behaved ahead of the big events
There's no doubt that the Fed will hike its funds rate later today. The accompanying FOMC statement and economic projections will be of much more interest. The comittee took a step toward a more neutral bias at their most recent meeting. Should they continue in that direction, the dollar is bound to get sold. EUR/USD is trading in an ever tighter short-term range but any breakout will probably be limited, with ECB decision coming up tomorrow.
Will the dollar gap lower?
U.S. government failed to pass funding bill and went into shutdown. This will probably last a couple of weeks, the question is what it means for the U.S. dollar. A small gap lower is possible, but with ECB and BOJ meetings next week, a correction rather than continuation of the dollar weakness may be in the cards.
U.S. dollar strong but yen outperforms
Cautious tones from ECB and BOC, weak Australian inflation one side and progress in U.S. politics and much better than expected Advance GDP reading on the other one were among the drivers of major currency pairs this week. BOE is expected to hike next week but it will be a one-off for now.
The U.S. dollar was mostly bought up until around the time Europe started heading for the pub. Rumor of Trump leaning toward Powell as the next Fed chair sparked a bout of profit-taking. The dollar ended the w…
The U.S. dollar was mostly bought up until around the time Europe started heading for the pub. Rumor of Trump leaning toward Powell as the next Fed chair sparked a bout of profit-taking. The dollar ended the w…
Swissie on the way to 0.95
SNB is among those central banks that is not in hurry to hike rates. Moreover, the bank will likely deliberately lag behind to prevent any strengthening of the franc for which they already say is significantly overvalued.
EUR/CHF has been slowly grinding up on expectations that the ECB will move first. The pair traded to the highest this year yesterday. USD/CHF has been doing it's usual EUR/USD mirroring. Support at 0.95 in the former roughly matches the resistance at 1.15 in the latter.
EUR/CHF has been slowly grinding up on expectations that the ECB will move first. The pair traded to the highest this year yesterday. USD/CHF has been doing it's usual EUR/USD mirroring. Support at 0.95 in the former roughly matches the resistance at 1.15 in the latter.
EURo rallies on hawkish comments by Draghi
ECB president Mario Draghi yesterday said: "While there are still factors that are weighing on the path of inflation, at present they are mainly temporary factors that typically the central bank can look through". That's hawkish from him and Euro bulls needed no excuse to took the pair 150 pips higher by the end of the day.
The pair finally broke above U.S. election high (1.13) and extended gains to the highest level in a year. Pre-Brexit high (1.1430) is the next target and then last year's hig…
The pair finally broke above U.S. election high (1.13) and extended gains to the highest level in a year. Pre-Brexit high (1.1430) is the next target and then last year's hig…
USD/CHF consolidates below 0.97 ahead of the FOMC
Swiss franc is one of the best performing major currencies this year. Euro strength and U.S. dollar weakness are both supporting this. SNB meets tomorrow and no change is expected from them for at least as long as ECB keeps rates on the floor.
USD/CHF encountered some demand ahead of 0.96 before pulling from the lows. If that goes, 0.95 area looks stronger and might be backed by SNB. 0.97 - 0.975 is the initial resistance. 0.98 - 0.985 is another one.
USD/CHF encountered some demand ahead of 0.96 before pulling from the lows. If that goes, 0.95 area looks stronger and might be backed by SNB. 0.97 - 0.975 is the initial resistance. 0.98 - 0.985 is another one.
EURo pauses after cautious ECB
UPDATE 6: ECB acted as expected last week and removed phrase "or lower" from the line "interest rates to remain at present or lower levels for an extended period of time". The bank remains cautious as they lowered growth and inflation forecasts for the year.
The market expected a little bit more hawkishness from them and subsequently sold off. Dip buyers have been quick to step in however and push the pair back above 1.12. 1.11 - 1.115 should hold if this rally is to continue. 1.13 is the next t…
The market expected a little bit more hawkishness from them and subsequently sold off. Dip buyers have been quick to step in however and push the pair back above 1.12. 1.11 - 1.115 should hold if this rally is to continue. 1.13 is the next t…
EURo pulls back sharply
Euro traded above both December high and 200 DMA last week before pulling back sharply. One of the reasons was weak core inflation print which doesn't support ideas of any sooner than expected tightening by the ECB.
The pair lost a good cent on the week with the range of two and a half cents. Established S/R line near 1.0650 is holding for now, reinforced by 50 and 100 DMA. Current downswing may extend to the trendline, drawn off of January and March lows.
The pair lost a good cent on the week with the range of two and a half cents. Established S/R line near 1.0650 is holding for now, reinforced by 50 and 100 DMA. Current downswing may extend to the trendline, drawn off of January and March lows.
EURo jumps on ECB rumours
There was a report yesterday from undisclosed ECB sources that the bank is considering tapering its QE program. The report was later denied by the bank's president Draghi, who said that tapering wasn't discussed.
The euro jumped about 80 pips on the report, to the upper part of its four-week range between 1.1125 and 1.1275. The pair is trading in a more broader triangle pattern with the support around 1.11 and the resistance near 1.13.
The euro jumped about 80 pips on the report, to the upper part of its four-week range between 1.1125 and 1.1275. The pair is trading in a more broader triangle pattern with the support around 1.11 and the resistance near 1.13.