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As expected the market didn't disappointed us in terms of the volatility it has generated so far through the last month of the year, but the only disappointment was in the fact that the ECB has failed us all in meeting market expectation and delivering on his promises. There're going to be a lot of event risks through the end of the year but above all the most anticipated without a doubt is the Fed rate decision which as per market expectation and the Fed fund futures there is a 80% probability …
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ECB a disappointing story
I'm not sure about everyone else but I wasn't expected ECB not to upgrade their QE program from 60B euro to at least 75B euros. This was a big disappointment even for the market itself as the build up in expectation ahead of the meeting was quite huge. Based on the latest COT report the net speculative short position ahead of the meeting where as high as they where in March when again happened to get a swing low. It never chase to amaze me how accurate this can be use as an contrarian indicator,…
Last month of the year
Since this is the last month of the year it will be your last chance to make up for the year but at the same time it can break you out as this month looks quite heavy in terms of macro data and big monetary policy decision across the FX landscape. The seasonality patterns during an environment which looks to be under the influence of mainly the monetary policy as the main driver of FX price can be altered.
Make no mistake about it but both ECB action this week to upgrade their QE program will ha…
Make no mistake about it but both ECB action this week to upgrade their QE program will ha…
December Fed Liftoff anf ECB Upgrade QE
The final two months of the year are going to be very interesting not just in the fact that we have strong seasonality at play but more because the fundamental themes are going to play an even major role. If Fed does indeed hike the interest rates, which was my thesis from beginning of this summer because if you look at all of the other major monetary policy changes Fed has a thing to do them around December see QE, tapering etc.
If that would be the case coupled with ECB taking action and upgra…
If that would be the case coupled with ECB taking action and upgra…
ECB on the Spotlight
If Mario can't move the euro no one cans, so lets hope he will put a stop to the current never ending ranging EUR/USD market. Let's be honest here EUR/USD has been a pain over the last few months as it has been moving back and forth. We still have to answer one important question on how EUR/USD will move based on whatever the monetary policy may be.
One thing I'm sure of is that they aren't going to expand their easing program at least not before Fed does a move first, with normalizing interest …
One thing I'm sure of is that they aren't going to expand their easing program at least not before Fed does a move first, with normalizing interest …
Trading Only The Major FX Pairs
Coming week I'll be focusing only on the majors as I think that they are the most clear in term of price action. In comparison the crosses look very messy this time as over the past few weeks the market has continued to consolidate and move in a tight range. Next week ECB interest rate decision and Mario Draghi's speech can be the catalyst for EUR/USD to break in either direction as this current range is already mature we now that after small ranges usually the market moves into expansion.
I'm n…
I'm n…
October Fx Market Outlook
In this article we’re going to look at both the technical setup as well as the fundamental themes that have been dictating the movements in the FX Market for the month of September and what’s going to drive the market forward in the coming month. The fact that we haven’t been able to see a rally in the equity market and a continuous decline in the US Dollar it tells us that something significant is happening, and that is a shift in the belief of monetary policy and its influences over the marke…
Greece Saga Final Act
This time around the count down has started for Greece and they are really running out of time. Recent developments in the past 24 hours have been quite substantial and make no mistake about it Greece is going to default as IMF has send quite a strong message that they are not going to move the deadline for the debt repayment which is 30 Jun and the Greek referendum over paying/nopaying the debt is useless.
The tell-tale signs of disaster wi…
- Greece bank Run
Photo Source: TheGuardian
The tell-tale signs of disaster wi…
Greece Latest Headlines
The Greece saga continues and the negotiations between the two parties involved has once again hit a roadblock. I'm telling you this is a total mess and I think we're going to have a big surprise once the market opens Sunday evening. Judging by today's headlines it's obvious that they are moving backwards and as time goes by the changes of an agreement fall even further. I thought that at least over the weekend we can relax, but NO, this bureaucrats are in for pulling out a snow show.
Jus…
Jus…
Grexit Saga Continues
Grexit or may just Greece default remain the most important trigger of FX volatility in the coming week. The ongoing negotiation between Brussels and Greece are just crazy and I wouldn't be surprised if they will extend again the deadline for the bailout which expire on 30 Jun. I'm not expecting anything new on the Monday's summit, and that should be the case if you take in consideration how things unfolded so far.
However all this uncertainty has failed to produce any meaningless moves in the F…
However all this uncertainty has failed to produce any meaningless moves in the F…