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ECB Press Conference Follow up

Jignesh Опубликовано 4 Сент.  в #Trader's blog #EUR #Ecb #Euro #Press Conference #Draghi
Yesterday I wrote a blog post on what to expect on the ECB press conference. The original post can be viewed at the link below
What can move the EURO during the ECB Press Conference
Here is a follow up on the Key points on what actually happened
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ECB Draghi - More QE?!?

Jignesh Обновлено 2 Сент.  в #Trader's blog #EUR #Ecb #Eurusd #Draghi
CNBC Released an article today suggesting we may see more QE from the ECB. Here are the highlights
  • New wave of EUR strength undermines ECB efforts to boost inflation
  • ECB meeting on Thursday - Expecting Draghi to comment about future support from the Central Bank
  • Increased demand for Euro's on the back of China economic concerns and US Rate hike expectations (or lack of)

Full article can be found at link below:
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Playing the Channel on EURNZD

Jignesh Опубликовал 30 Сент. как анализ EUR/NZD , Цель: 1.5806, Дата: 3-е Ноября, 12:00 GMT  в #Technical analysis #EUR #NZD #Fibonacci #Channel #Downtrend #EUR/NZD #Candlesticks #Moving Average
Overview
The EURNZD is in a channel on the Daily chart. So far it has shown clear rejection from the upper channel line after briefly spiking to the weekly 200MA.
The pair is trending down after peaking in late August of 2013. After posting an engulfing candle against the daily channel, the expectation is for the downtrend to continue at this point.
Levels
1.6462 - Weekly 200 Moving Average
1.6340 - Daily Close Sept 28 (Close below trendline after spike)
1.5806 - Daily 61.8% retracement of …
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Jignesh 9 Окт.

The pair faced a rejection of the 61.8% retracement of the last leg down just prior to the FOMC minutes today.  It may be too early to tell, but so far the weekly candle stick pattern is shaping up to be in favour of a bigger leg to the downside

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Jignesh 13 Окт.

First level of resistance comes at 1.6192 which marks last week's open.  With the second level of resistance coming in at 1.6226 (weekly fib level).  A spike high this week is a certain possibility but the focus is on a lower weekly close, preferable taking out support at last week's low at 1.6030

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Jignesh 24 Окт.

While moving the targets, the pair made a rapid reversal on a slew of data both negative for the NZD and positive for the EUR.  1.6200 is upside resistance,  A close below 1.6140 (weekly trendline)  will be required to maintain downside pressure.

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Jignesh 27 Окт.

The reversal correction is starting to show that it has completed and the downtrend may have resumed.  The biggest risk event for the pair this week will be the RBNZ statement.  It is well known that the central bank wants to see the kiwi lower and will most likely attempt to jawbone the currency at the event on Wednesday. 

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Jignesh 31 Окт.

The FOMC and RBNZ on Wednesday played Havoc on the pair, but not only has it managed to retrace the gains within a short period of time, it has not broken to new lows taking out support at 1.6015. 
With the ATR of this pair, it has good potential to reach targets.  Event risk for the EUR coming shortly with CPI estimates expected to have high impact.

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EURAUD - Daily Engulfing candle at 38.2% retracement

Jignesh Опубликовал 30 Сент. как анализ EUR/AUD , Цель: 1.3676, Дата: 3-е Ноября, 12:00 GMT  в #Technical analysis #AUD #EUR #Fibonacci #EUR/AUD #Pullback #Downtrend #Candlesticks #200Ma #Engulfing
Overview
The EURAUD has been pulling back from a downtrend that started at the beginning of this year.
The daily engulfing candle at the 38.2 Fibonacci retracement hints that the pull back has completed and the downtrend may resume
Levels
1.4576 - 38.2% Retracement on Daily
1.3676 - Daily Trendline projection for Nov 2
1.3588 - 127% Extension on Daily (1.3800 - 1.4587)
1.3530 - Weekly 200 Moving Average
Figure 1 - EURAUD Daily - Engulfing candle at 38.2% Fib retracement

Figure
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Jignesh 6 Окт.

The week closed off to draw a doji on the weekly chart, and the new week has the pair testing last week's low ahead of the London Open.  A daily close below this level (1.4340) will confirm a reversal is most likely on it's way.

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Jignesh 9 Окт.

EURAUD is struggling to break through it's weekly range.  There has been a spike down which saw buyer's stepping in.  Once again, the pair is approaching that key 1.4340 opening range level.  A break below is required to build momentum to the downside.

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Jignesh 13 Окт.

The pair has traded through the previous high to make a new high.  The 200 Daily MA comes in focus at 1.4626 to put pressure to the downside with a fib level slightly above at 1.4661 to contain any spikes.  This will be the last line in the sand for the pair for any downside pressure to remain.

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Jignesh 24 Окт.

The 200 Daily SMA has held, and the downside looks promising.  The targets in this prediction still remain valid, however the completion time may take longer as the pair has spent quite a bit of time consolidating.

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