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EUR/USD ended three-week advance this week, after it topped out ahead of 1.18 on Monday. The pair bounced strongly on Friday and closed the week bang in the middle of the two-month range between 1.15 and 1.185. Technicals and fundamentals are in USD's favour. I think eventual break below 1.15 is in the cards but may take some more churning in the current range.
al_dcdemo's Blog
USD/CHF follows USD/JPY higher
U.S. dollar strength continues. After USD/JPY break to the upside on Wednesday, USD/CHF followed yesterday. The pair rose above parity level and is currently testing year's high near 1.0050. It's pretty much open space above that with big figures as resistance levels. A break lower in EUR/USD would be helpful, given the correlation between euro and franc.
EUR/USD closes the week at 50 DMA
U.S. labour market report for June came in fairly solid. NFPs surprised to the upside while uptick in unemployment rate was due to increased labour force participation. Market however took the cue from the marginal miss in average hourly earnings and sold the dollar. Euro was the greatest beneficiary with EUR/USD spiking 50 pips above 1.1715 resistance and closing the week right at 50 DMA.
EUR/USD closes the week on a strong note
EUR/USD jumped half a cent in early Friday morning, as E.U. and Italy reached a deal on immigration. That led to broader U.S. dollar selling, with USD index repeatedly rejecting prices above 95 (also 200 WMA). The displayed momentum suggests continuation. That being said, EUR/USD is likely to encounter some resistance near 1.175, if not earlier.
EUR/USD sells off after ECB decision
It seems as if the dollar move higher after more hawkish than expected Fed came with one day lag. ECB may have done more steps in the hawkish direction than expected by many yesterday, but their pledge to hold rates at present level at least until summer 2019 contrasts starkly with Fed's projected one hike per quarter. EUR/USD is down 300 pips from yesterday's high.
EUR/USD well behaved ahead of the big events
There's no doubt that the Fed will hike its funds rate later today. The accompanying FOMC statement and economic projections will be of much more interest. The comittee took a step toward a more neutral bias at their most recent meeting. Should they continue in that direction, the dollar is bound to get sold. EUR/USD is trading in an ever tighter short-term range but any breakout will probably be limited, with ECB decision coming up tomorrow.
EUR/USD nearing 38.2% of April - May decline
Market focus went from political woes in Italy and existential fears back to ECB and normalization of monetary policy as EUR/USD bounced from 1.15 and keeps grinding up. 1.185 area (includes 38.2% retracement of April - May decline) is where some resistance is likely to be encountered. 1.17 - 1.175 should now hold if bulls are to remain in control.
EUR/USD bounces off of 1.15
After trading below October's low and to as low as 1.15, EUR/USD bounced strongly, leaving a hammer on the weekly chart. Not out of the woods yet but convincingly trading above 1.175 - 1.18 would probably mean that a more significant low was put in place.
Is the U.S. dollar rally over?
After three weeks of gains, U.S. dollar recorded a mixed week against major currencies. A general opinion is that this rally is a corrective one and that the dollar weakening trend will resume before long, on U.S. deficit issues and monetary policy convergence, and that makes sense. However, market often does whatever hurts most people the most, and will possibly test the resolve of these participants first.
EUR/USD to the lowest this year
Long EUR/USD was cited as one of the consensus trades for 2018. It seems that there was too much consensus. We saw another round of U.S. dollar buying today. EUR/USD recorded a new low for the year before finding some support ahead of 1.18. On a quick glance the pair appears oversold but shallow pullbacks suggest that sellers are not done yet.