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Analyzing EUR/USD.

EUR
European economy is doing well with major economies of Germany, France showing solid GDP growth in recent quarters. Even third largest economy of Italy is also catching up while most of other smaller economies remain well supported. ECB is likely to wind down the Asset purchase program after the August 2018. So the picture looks promising for Euro.
USD
US economy is in very good shape and expected to keep up the GDP growth rate in coming quarters of year 2018. It gives Fedral reseve the conf…
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EUR/USD to remain strong.

EUR:
The Euro Area economy advanced 2.1 percent on quarter in the three months to June of 2017, which is better than 1.9 percent growth in the previous quarter ending March 2017. Household consumption and public spending were the main drivers of growth while fixed investment slowed sharply and net external demand contributed negatively. The GDP growth rate serves as a broad indicator for the health of Euro-zone economies. Robust GDP growth signals a heightened level of economic activity, which i…
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US GDP Growth is expected to rise to 2.6 % (YoY) in second quarter of 2017 which will mark a robust improvement from the first quarter of 2017 GDP growth rate of 1.4 % (YoY). The pick up in GDP growth rate is mainly driven by higher consumer spending and rising exports. Optimism about domestic economic conditions is giving the consumers the confidence to spend more as they expect the future income to rise while improvement in world economy is boosting exports as the demand for American products rise. Government spending and inventories are proving drag on otherwise high GDP growth rate.

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Predicting EUR/USD.

USD
In the United States the Federal Reserve has a much more positive outlook about future economic growth in US economy. After some softness in Q1 of 2017 the GDP growth is picking up in 2nd Quarter in USA. If we look across sectors we see optimistic indications overall. Recently released data about housing activity has shown rise in home construction. In recent months consumer credit has seen a remarkable rise as the election of Mr. Trump as a President of United States of America has generate…
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EUR/USD to remain sideways.

EUR:
The consumer confidence in Euro Area has been on rise for last couple of months as we can see from the growth seen in Household consumption and public spending. The construction sector has also grown at remarkable pace adding more jobs to the economy and thus more disposable income in people's hands.As people's faith in future growth in employment, jobs rise we will see even better general economic situation and major purchases of durable goods leading to better consumer confidence numbers.…
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EUR/USD Analysis

The euro is rallying for last two weeks as reports surfaced that the European Central Bank (ECB) had discussed the possibility of introducing a rate hike before the end of its quantitative easing (QE) programme.Also the urgency for ECB to use ultra-loose monetary policy to achieve its inflation target is receding.
On the US dollar front there is a feeling that the economy is not as strong as everyone thinks and/or the Trump-growth agenda will take much longer than expected to implement and the F…
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Predicting EUR/USD

In coming months the euro is expected to remain under pressure amid concerns over the possibility of a Brexit or Trump-style shock result in France’s upcoming presidential election.
Worries over elections in the Netherlands, Germany and possibly Italy, as well as the ongoing row over Greece's bailout are adding to concerns over political risk in the euro area.
US dollar has been trading sideways with a downward bias since the start of the year amid a lack of clarity on U.S. President Donald Tru…
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lelipuzik avatar

really interesting

Natalia_Kisenko avatar

great analysis!

VAIBS1991 avatar

In Germany Year-on-year, the GDP advanced 1.2 percent, slower than preliminary estimates of a 1.6 percent growth and a 1.5 percent expansion in the third quarter. It was the weakest expansion since the September quarter 2014. Household final consumption rose 1.5 percent, the same pace as in the previous quarter. Government consumption expanded 3.2 percent, down from a 3.5 percent expansion in the September quarter. Overall consumption contributed 1.5 percentage points to growth. Gross fixed capital formation grew 0.1 percent.

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On the US dollar front there is a feeling that the economy is not as strong as everyone thinks and/or the Trump-growth agenda will take much longer than expected to implement and the Fed intends to push ahead with a three-hike plan that in and of itself, will trigger an economic retrenchment.

SiarheiVS avatar

Хорошая статья.

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Anticipating EUR/USD

Recently Trump officials have expressed concern about the strength of the dollar or, as Navarro complained, about other currencies being undervalued. The OECD confirms. Its models see the euro at nearly 25% undervalued, sterling almost 16.5% undervalued and the yen 11% under-valued. The Mexican peso, whose marked depreciation has been exacerbated by comments from Trump, is undervalued, according to the OECD, by 147%. I think we will see some appreciation of EUR/USD in February 2017 as the Fed is…
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In Euro area household consumption is the main component of GDP and accounts for 56 percent of its total use, followed by government expenditure (21 percent) and gross fixed capital formation (20 percent). Net exports of goods and services adds 4 percent to the GDP. Euro Area's gross domestic product expanded 0.5 % (QoQ) and 1.8 %t (YoY)r in the fourth quarter of 2016 which was better the market expectations. Among countries for which data is already available, GDP growth has picked up in France, Belgium, Latvia and Lithuania and was unchanged in Spain and Austria.

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EUR/USD TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

TOOLS USED: ICHIMOKU, TREND, PRICE ACTION EMA CROSSOVER, LONGER TERM SUPPORT RESISTANCE
CHARTS: WEEKLY AND MONTHLY
WEEKLY CHART:
MONTHLY CHART:
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Elens94 avatar
Elens94 18 Jan

Good analysis!

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U.S. loan application activity for home purchases rose last week to its highest since early June even as borrowing costs increased for the first time in four weeks, according to Mortgage Bankers .

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There are very important events this week which will highly impact the valuations of EUR/USD. The much anticipated Federal Reserve Rate Decision is on Wednesday February 1st 2016 which is also our contest's final day. The Federal Reserve is not expected to take action on interest rates at the conclusion of its two-day policy meeting. The Fed indicated last month that at least three rate increases were in the offing for 2017. However, traders remained unconvinced. Instead, markets are pricing in just two rate hikes during the course of this year, according to CME group's FedWatch Tool.

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Anticipating Fed Rate hike.

Mr Donald Trumps victory has bolstered markets expectation that finally Fed will be pulling the trigger on Federal fund rates after almost waiting for a year. Recent NFP data and PCE price index data have been in line with FOMC requirements for raising interest rates.
EUR/USD has been treading in a very tight range of 6 to 7 percent for last two years after falling to 1.05 in March 2015 from the levels of 1.4 touched in May 2014.
I think it is in the last phase of consolidation before the new br…
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