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EURo Nearing Cluster of Previous Resistance Levels

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 May as Analysis on EUR/USD, Target: 1.1242, Date: 3 von July, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR #USD #Europe #EUR/USD #Overbought #Resistances #Resistance Zone #Stochastic Indicator #Stochastic
The Euro is slowly becoming overbought. Look at the weekly chart below. We are already trading past the 80 level on the Stochastic Oscillator, a level which signifies an overbought market condition. But that on it's own shouldn't be traded upon.
Exhibit number two is the second picture below. We are nearing a cluster of previous resistance levels, starting from this month's high at 1.1268 to the 1.1302 spike on Trump election day. Higher up more levels can be found at 1.1370, 1.1428 and of cours…
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Another Range-Bound Month for the Euro

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Mar. as Analysis on EUR/USD, Target: 1.0654, Date: 1 von May, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR #USD #Ecb #EUR/USD #Us Dollar #Greenback #Range Bound #Single Currency #Congestion
The Euro had another range-bound month. We opened March at 1.0576, first traded to a low of 1.0494, then to a high of 1.0906, only to fall back down to 1.0654 today.
The chart above shows this volatile but ultimately indecisive market movement. On our second chart below we can see that this range-bound movement has been happening for the past few months, not just one month. The large rectangle on this chart shows March while the smaller ones show important turning points in the market.
Notice ho…
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Losses End for the Euro

fxsurprise8 Posted 28 Feb. as Analysis on EUR/USD, Target: 1.0597, Date: 3 von April, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR #USD #Euro #EUR/USD #Us Dollar #Zig Zag Pattern #Range Bound #Range Box #Single Currency
The losses for the Euro have come to an end. Exhibit A, look at the daily chart below. For the past three months, we've been range-bound in this currency pair.
Things don't look better if we drill down to the 4 Hour chart. Notice the directionless zig-zag movement here. First down, then up, the down again and recently up again. This indicates that there's no clear trend on the lower time-frames.
With both the long-term and the short-term charts signalling range, I'm betting on prices staying nea…
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fxsurprise8 1 Apr.

UPDATE 1: Time for a chart update! The pair followed the expected scenario of mean reversion this month. Initially we rallied all the way to a high of 1.0906.

But these gains were soon erased as you can see on the chart above. We closed on Friday at 1.0652, only 80 pips above the monthly open.

This is only 65 pips away from my forecasted price. Hopefully the downward drift continues for another half day on Monday to bring me even closer!

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EURo Should Stablize in January

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Dec. as Analysis on EUR/USD, Target: 1.05181, Date: 1 von February, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Euro #Europe #EUR/USD #Oversold #Us Dolar #Range Bound #Stochastic
Europe's single currency could finally stabilize in January. On the weekly chart below we can see that the trend has been down. But the Stochastic Oscillator is flashing oversold level at only 10. This means that the downtrend could be on its last legs.
On our next chart below we see that the EUR/USD had a surge of buying as we trade close to support. This happened soon after prices hit a low of 1.0372, which is very close to the monthly low at 1.0352. A high of 1.0652 was hit during the frenzie…
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EUR/USD Bounces Off Long-Term Support

fxsurprise8 Posted 30 Nov. as Analysis on EUR/USD, Target: 1.0596, Date: 2 von January, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Euro #Support #EUR/USD #Eurozone #Long Term #Us Dollar #Momentum #Support Levels #Single Currency
I think the losses for the Euro are coming to an end. Our first chart below shows reason number one. The pair recently bounced off 1.0522. This is a long-term support level that held up prices for the past 18 months. Not far from here we find another level, the 1.0462 swing low. This is a multi-year for the Euro. The last time the single currency traded below here was all the way back in 2003.
On our second chart we see a glimpse of the trading on the lower time-frame. Notice how during the past…
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fxsurprise8 28 Dec.

Things are not going exactly as planned in the EUR/USD. While the pair managed to break the 1.0500 handle, it hasn't made much headway below the figure.

We spent the last two weeks of December swinging between 1.0400 and 1.0500. We are currently quoted at 1.0404.

This is certainly no consolation for my forecast, which remains off by almost 2 percent. But the end of the contest is still a good time away, so let's hope we bounce back on year-end flows.

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fxsurprise8 31 Dec.

Things are looking up for my forecast! During the past few days the EUR/USD rallied over 120 pips to close the year at 1.0525. This is around 70 pips away from my forecast. Now this doesn't mean the contest is over, we still have few more days left until January 2nd.

There is still hope that mean reversion will continue to be a force here and push us higher still. We're coming up from oversold levels, like I noted in my original forecast. Plus the bounce at support lends more credence to the bounce story.

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More of the Same for the Euro

fxsurprise8 Posted 30 Sep. as Analysis on EUR/USD, Target: 1.1241, Date: 1 von November, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR #USD #Euro #EUR/USD #Us Dollar #Range Bound #Average Range #Inside Bar #Directionless
September was another range-bound month for the Euro. The total monthly range high to low was only 203 pips. The open to close range was even smaller at only 85 pips.
On the monthly chart below we see the latest month as an inside bar. This underscores just how slow things have been in this pair. Furthermore we're still in a larger range since March of 2015. The top and bottom of this area can be found at 1.0462 and 1.1713.
While eventually we will get a breakout, ranges can persist far longer t…
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EUR/USD to Continue Directionless Trading

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Aug. as Analysis on EUR/USD, Target: 1.1155, Date: 3 von October, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR #USD #Ecb #EUR/USD #Fomc #Range #Range Box #Brexit #Directionless
The EUR/USD has been moving with no clear direction since May of this year. Look at the chart below. That large red bar shows Brexit day. We're now quoted at 1.1155, less then 10 pips away from the 50% retracement of that large move. That underscores how range-bound this pair has been in the past few months.
But things aren't looking great on the higher timeframes either. Notice how since about March of 2015 the Euro has been stuck in a relatively large range, marked with a rectangle on the char…
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fxsurprise8 29 Sep.

We're still trading inside the large rectangle show in picture two above. The total monthly range is only 204 pips or 1.8 percent.

So far my forecast has been stop on. Every rally is being use by sellers to unload more Euro and every drop is being used to buy on the cheap.

Take today for example. First we fell to a low of 1.1196. Then we rallied to a daily high of 1.1249 and we're now back down near the 1.1200 figure. The directionless trading in the EUR/USD continues.

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fxsurprise8 30 Sep.

More of the same for the Euro as we get yet another directionless trading day. Today we opened at 1.1221, fell to a low of 1.1153 around mid-day, only to rally hard later on some Deutsche Bank speculation.

A high of 1.1250 was hit, soon followed by a retracement. We're currently quoted at 1.1234, only 13 pips away from the daily open. The range-bound scenario outlined in my original post continues. The EUR/USD looks set for another monthly inside bar.

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fxsurprise8 3 Oct.

Time for another update! The past few days brought lot of volatility but no decisive movement. During all of the commotion a low of 1.1153 was hit, overshooting my target by only 2 pips. But this move was quickly reversed by a sharp rally higher to 1.1250. We are currently quoted just below the highs at 1.1230.

The sharp bounce right at the 1.1150s area confirms the validity of the level that I picked as a target. But with Germany celebrating Unity Day tomorrow, things could be slower then usual. This doesn't bode well for forecast because I'm still 75 pips away from my forecasted price.

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EURo to Weaken Toward the 1.0500 Level

fxsurprise8 Posted 30 June as Analysis on EUR/USD, Target: 1.0562, Date: 1 von August, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR #Ecb #Euro #Trend #Qe #EUR/USD #Us Dollar #Downtrend #Brexit
Brexit wasn't kind to the Euro. The pair got sold aggressively after the UK voted to leave the EU. The reaction was partially because this will result in more easing by the ECB as well as calls for referendums in other countries in the Union.
But aside from the fundamentals and the short-term charts, things are not looking better on the long-term charts either. On the daily chart below we can see that the pair broke the important support near 1.1100 on Brexit. This level held up prices for over …
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More Losses for the Euro

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 May as Analysis on EUR/USD, Target: 1.0721, Date: 1 von July, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Yellen #Euro #Support #EUR/USD #Fomc #Us Dollar #Selling #Downtrend #Single Currency
May wasn't kind to the Euro. The pair lost 319 pips and is currently quoted at 1.1133, near to the monthly lows at 1.1098. Looks like we're going to have a close just above the lows, this is a bearish signal on its own. It clearly demonstrates the downward momentum in this pair.
I'm betting on more losses for Europe's single currency. I'm pinning my target at 1.0721, right above this year's low at 1.0710. I think the bears will have a hard time breaking past this level, at least on the first try…
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More Gains for the Euro

fxsurprise8 Posted 30 Apr. as Analysis on EUR/USD, Target: 1.1706, Date: 1 von June, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USD #Euro #Breakout #EUR/USD #Rally #Us Dollar #Momentum #Single Currency #Common Currency
The Euro had a okay but not great April. The pair rallied from 1.1377 to close the month at 1.1445. But that doesn't tell us the whole picture. On the chart below the daily trend is more clearly visible. Even more important, the EUR/USD closed Friday 94 pips in the green, showing that it has both trend and momentum on its side.
But just how far will this rally take us? I think the pair will have no problem breaking past the 1.1400-1.1500 resistance barrier. The only potential stopping point I'm …
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