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EURNZD Remains bearish against it's monthly Trendline

Jignesh Publié 31 oct comme Analyse sur EUR/NZD, Cible: 1.5717, Date: 1 de décembre, 12:00 GMT  dans #Technical analysis #Support #Resistance #Reversal #Carry Trade #Eurnzd #EUR/NZD #Monthly Trendline
Similar to my previous analysis in last months contest, the pair is still showing the same setup and looks to be bearish
There is a Major monthly trendline in place, as well as a daily channel formation, the pair has yet to break any of these significant technical levels on a weekly or monthly basis. The Doji this month further reaffirms the upside momentum has subdued.
Levels
1.8385 - Previous High and invalidation area
1.6226 - Major Resistance
1.5850 - Major Support/Resistance
1.5600 - Weekly…
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Jignesh 10 nov

The pair is still consolidating withing the daily channel.  Last week the price maxed out at 1.6275 which marked the top of the channel, meaning a new wave structure may have started and in progress.  Will be watching for a sharp down side move within the coming 2 weeks.

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Jignesh 17 nov

EURNZD finally broke out of it's range to make a monthly low.  The previous comment proposing a potential new wave structure after touching 1.6275 is favored.  Last week we saw the 61.8% of the last leg up (1.58064) holding price, however the week's open gapped lower and closed a daily candle below it, negating the presumed buying pressure.  The next level to the downside is 1.5725 which marks last week's low, with a trendline near by below (as indicated in charts).

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Jignesh 27 nov

The pair has been makig violent swing in the range of 300 pips roughly in both directions, giving the view that we may be in a temporary range.  In tomorrow's early Asian session, we have the ANZ Business Confidence which may act as a catalyst for trend development, on continuation.  For now the pair hovers around targets, but is quite volatile

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Jignesh 28 nov

EUR CPI Flash estimate is due in the UK session today which can be a trigger for some further dowside as the pair hovers around the 1.5900 mark.  1.5920 marks the 61.8% retracement of the last leg on the 1H which should offer resistance.  Earlier Business confidence number had little impact on the pair.

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Jignesh 1 déc

With less than a day left, EURNZD has gapped up to start off the week, but as per the 4H chart, the upside is limited.  The 200MA has done well in capping price to the upside, above that is the important 1.6015 level as well.  To the downside there are several support zones the pair would have to break in order to reach targets, but the possibility certainly remains

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Playing the Channel on EURNZD

Jignesh Publié 30 sep comme Analyse sur EUR/NZD, Cible: 1.5806, Date: 3 de novembre, 12:00 GMT  dans #Technical analysis #EUR #NZD #Fibonacci #Channel #Downtrend #EUR/NZD #Candlesticks #Moving Average
Overview
The EURNZD is in a channel on the Daily chart. So far it has shown clear rejection from the upper channel line after briefly spiking to the weekly 200MA.
The pair is trending down after peaking in late August of 2013. After posting an engulfing candle against the daily channel, the expectation is for the downtrend to continue at this point.
Levels
1.6462 - Weekly 200 Moving Average
1.6340 - Daily Close Sept 28 (Close below trendline after spike)
1.5806 - Daily 61.8% retracement of …
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Jignesh 9 oct

The pair faced a rejection of the 61.8% retracement of the last leg down just prior to the FOMC minutes today.  It may be too early to tell, but so far the weekly candle stick pattern is shaping up to be in favour of a bigger leg to the downside

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Jignesh 13 oct

First level of resistance comes at 1.6192 which marks last week's open.  With the second level of resistance coming in at 1.6226 (weekly fib level).  A spike high this week is a certain possibility but the focus is on a lower weekly close, preferable taking out support at last week's low at 1.6030

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Jignesh 24 oct

While moving the targets, the pair made a rapid reversal on a slew of data both negative for the NZD and positive for the EUR.  1.6200 is upside resistance,  A close below 1.6140 (weekly trendline)  will be required to maintain downside pressure.

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Jignesh 27 oct

The reversal correction is starting to show that it has completed and the downtrend may have resumed.  The biggest risk event for the pair this week will be the RBNZ statement.  It is well known that the central bank wants to see the kiwi lower and will most likely attempt to jawbone the currency at the event on Wednesday. 

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Jignesh 31 oct

The FOMC and RBNZ on Wednesday played Havoc on the pair, but not only has it managed to retrace the gains within a short period of time, it has not broken to new lows taking out support at 1.6015. 
With the ATR of this pair, it has good potential to reach targets.  Event risk for the EUR coming shortly with CPI estimates expected to have high impact.

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