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EUR/JPY Range-bound on Long-term Charts

fxsurprise8 Posted 28 Feb. as Analysis on EUR/JPY, Target: 118.73, Date: 3rd of April, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Euro #EUR/JPY #Japan #European Union #Japanese Yen #Range Bound #Single Currency #Congestion #No Trends #V Shaped Reversal
The EUR/JPY has been range-bound for over 8 months now. As you can see on the weekly chart below, the downtrend has been broken and we got a V-shaped reversal. We are now quoted at 118.73, this is the same price as back in June for example.
The situation doesn't look any better on the daily charts as well. Here we can see that the Trump rally from November is slowly being retraced away. Here we got an upside down V-shaped reversal.
In short, while volatility is high prices are not moving much on…
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fxsurprise8 31 Mar.

UPDATE 3: More good news to report! The downtrend in EUR/JPY continued for another day. Not only did the pair fall down to my target but it even exceed it a bit.

We are currently quoted at 118.66, 7 pips below my forecasted price. While the past few days have seen some downward momentum, on the monthly charts  this is still range-bound market.

As a reminder, we opened the monthly at 119.20, the highest high was at 122.88 while the lowest low was at 118.63 (today). So lots of volatility but ultimately not going anywhere.

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fxsurprise8 1 Apr.

UPDATE 4: Time for another update and this time with a chart! The EUR/JPY so far is behaving right as expected.

We forecasted more range this month and as the chart above shows this is exactly what we got.  The vertical line shows the monthly open on March 1st.

We opened the month at 119.20, the highest high was at 122.88 while the lowest low was at 118.63 (Friday). We are currently trading very closer to the lows and almost exactly at my 118.73 target. Let's hope for a calm end to this contest!

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fxsurprise8 2 Apr.

UPDATE 5: After closing near the lows on Friday, this Sunday morning we're seeing a general recovery in all EUR pairs. The gains are not large but they're sizable for this time of day, which tends to be a bit slower.

Same happened with te EUR/JPY, that initially saw it gap open 14 pips higher at 118.76. We tend rallied further to 118.97 but fall back down to 118.75 right now.

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fxsurprise8 3 Apr.

UPDATE 6: My initial forecast called for range-bound movement in the EUR/JPY. As evidence I presented two long-term charts (daily and weekly) where we can see a V-shaped reversal, the hallmark of all range-bound markets.

Now we add to this collection the 4 Hour chart (see above). This shows the most recent price action of this currency pair during March and again confirms the ranges by printing yet another V-shaped reversal!

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fxsurprise8 3 Apr.

continued due to word limit: The EUR/JPY opened the month 119.20, then rallied to a high of 122.88. From here we fell to a low of 118.13. We are currently trading at 118.35.

But ultimately the pair 'closed' the contest at 118.69. This was the price printed at 12:00 GMT, according to the Dukascopy charts.

This means that my initial forecast was 'off' my only 4 pips or 0.033%. Not a surprising result given that price action did exactly what I expected. Let's hope that the other guys weren't as lucky so I can finally score a top 1 position in this contest :)

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EUR/JPY Uptrend Grinds to a Halt

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Dec. as Analysis on EUR/JPY, Target: 123.151, Date: 1st of February, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR #JPY #Euro #EUR/JPY #Japan #Japanese Yen #Uptrend #Timeframes #Single Currency
The EUR/JPY uptrend grinded to a halt during December. The total monthly range (open to close) was only 185 pips. This compared with 609 pips during November. So there's a noticeable slowdown in the pace of the rally.
Then why am I predicting no change in January? Take a look at our next picture. On the lower timeframes we can see that the trend is already dead and prices are just swinging up and down with no clear direction.
I expect this range-bound behavior to continue so I'm placing my forec…
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EUR/JPY Overbought on Multiple Timeframes

fxsurprise8 Posted 30 Nov. as Analysis on EUR/JPY, Target: 121.05, Date: 2nd of January, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #JPY #Euro #EUR/JPY #Japanese Yen #Overbought #Stochastic #Stoch #Timeframes #Single Currency
The EUR/JPY is overbought on most time-frames. The first picture below shows a daily chart. Notice how the Stochastic Oscillator traded above the 80 line and is now coming down. This is a classic overbought signal followed by a confirmation, the moving down back below the 80 line.
Exhibit number two shows us the situation on the 4 Hour chart. Here too the pair is flashing an overbought signal. The Stoch is printing a value of 91 right now. The pair is stretched to extreme levels.
Our final chart…
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fxsurprise8 28 Dec.

So far so good! After a long post-election rally the EUR/JPY has traded mostly range-bound during December. Looks like all those overbought signals are finally having an effect.

The high to low range is now at 539 pips, with a high at 124.09 and a low at 118.70. But most important, the open to close range is tiny at only 48 pips.

We are currently quoted at 122.01 in the EUR/JPY, only 94 pips or 0.77 percent above my forecasted price. Here's to hoping for a small drop into month-end!

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EUR/JPY Firmly in Triangle Pattern

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Oct. as Analysis on EUR/JPY, Target: 115.09, Date: 1st of December, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR #Euro #EUR/JPY #Japan #Volatility #Japanese Yen #Triangle Pattern #Range Bound #JPY Crosses
The EUR/JPY is now firmly inside a large triangle pattern. Look at the weekly chart below. Prices have been stuck inside this formation for the past several months. And while this is a trend continuation pattern, until the bears manage to break out range-bound trading will persist.
Let's take a look at a lower time-frame chart as well to get a fuller picture. On the daily chart below this range-bound behavior is even more evident. Notice how prices have stayed virtually flat since the start of t…
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High Volatility, Low Price Changes

fxsurprise8 Posted 30 Sep. as Analysis on EUR/JPY, Target: 113.93, Date: 1st of November, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #JPY #Euro #EUR/JPY #Japan #Volatility #Japanese Yen #Range Bound #Price Change #Ranges
High volatility but small price changes. That's how we can characterize September for the EUR/JPY. The pair rallied to a high of 116.35 then fell to a monthly low at 112.07. But the open to close price change was much less impressive at only 138 pips.
Our next chart below demonstrates my point more clearly. Notice how the EUR/JPY is slowly forming a triangle pattern. This means that the ranges are getting narrower and narrower. Thus I'm betting on prices slowly calming down in ever tighter range…
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fxsurprise8 31 Oct.

With prices at 115.14, the bulls are currently pushing on the upper end of the triangle in the picture above. Earlier in the day we traded as high as 115.25. The10 pips decline is too small to be classified as a bounce yet but if the move lower continues, we can conclude that prices respected the triangle.

The monthly range for the EUR/JPY is now at only 368 pips,with a high at 116.28 and a low at 112.60.These numbers are very close to September which had a 116.35 high and a low at 112.07.

This confirms that my analysis above is correct, this pair is volatile but ultimately stays in range.

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Clashing Trends in the EUR/JPY

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Aug. as Analysis on EUR/JPY, Target: 115.32, Date: 3rd of October, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR #JPY #Euro #EUR/JPY #Volatility #Trends #Japanese Yen #Bounce #Range Bound
We're having two contradicting trends develop in the EUR/JPY. On the shorter time-frame, a tentative bullish trend has developed in the past few days. See the 4h chart below. We're now up over 250 pips from the lows recorded last Friday.
But things are looking quite the opposite on the longer-term charts. Note the strong downward trend on the weekly chart below. Since peaking out at 149.78 in December of 2014, the EUR/JPY has been in a bearish trend. The low was hit at 109.48 this June, post-Bre…
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fxsurprise8 30 Sep.

So far my forecast has been generally correct but prices are still far from my target. Let me explain. In September the EUR/JPY hit a high of 116.07 and a low of 112.07.

But those extremes don't tell the whole story. Most of the month the EUR/JPY spent in the middle of this range. We're currently quoted at 113.69, close to the 50% mark.

Unfortunately due to large selling on two days this month (September 20th and 21st) the neutral point has shifted somewhat lower and for the past week we've been drudging along in this 113-114 range. I will need the pair to rally to bring me close to target.

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Pointless Volatility in the Yen

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 July as Analysis on EUR/JPY, Target: 114.30, Date: 1st of September, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR #JPY #EUR/JPY #Japan #Volatility #Boj #Japanese Yen #Brexit
The EUR/JPY experienced massive volatility during the past 2 months. First Brexit then the highly anticipated July BOJ meeting ricked prices up/down. Perhaps surprisingly however, we're currently quoted right above the 50% Fib retracement of the most recent high/low.
This to me signals that the market is undecided here.The 50% Fib at 113.97 and the 114 round figure should support prices.But the weekly trend is strongly down as can be seen on the chart below. Meanwhile the daily and 4H are more m…
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fxsurprise8 31 Aug.

With a monthly high to low range of only 260 pips and a open to close move of 65 pips, my forecast is proving to be correct.

We're now quoted at 114.91 so overshooting my target by a bit. But I think that the closeness of the major round level at 115.00 and the 38% Fib at 115.03 (see pic 1 above) will put a lid on prices, at least in the short-term.

And like I mentioned in my original post, on the other end the 50% Fib at 113.97 and the 114 round figure should support prices.

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The EUR/JPY Could Have Hard Time Breaking 115

fxsurprise8 Posted 30 June as Analysis on EUR/JPY, Target: 114.534, Date: 1st of August, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR #Ecb #Euro #EUR/JPY #Rally #Japanese Yen #JPY Crosses #Brexit
The EUR/JPY could have a hard time breaking the 115 round figure. Prices are already up over 500 pips from the 109.48 lows. But perhaps more important, we've yet to reclaim the 50% retracement level. This was easily done in the USD/JPY for example. To me this signals that the Euro woes will continue to weigh on this pair.
The Brexit could lead to more ECB easing as well as calls for referendums in other EU nations. This will be an ongoing problem that the USD for example doesn't have. But I'm no…
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fxsurprise8 1 Aug.

So far so good. The pair spent most of July in a range between 118.50 and 110.82. Granted the highs were a bit higher then I thought but the market will always aim for the extreme.

The unexpected market frenzy regarding 'helicopter money' took Yen pairs way beyond fundamentals this month. Eventually the BOJ poured cold water on the fantasy and we saw the EUR/JPY come crashing down near the end of the month.

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fxsurprise8 1 Aug.

With only few hours to go, we're currently quoted at 114.13, about 40 pips below my forecasted price. Considering that today we saw the pair trade as high as 114.72 in Asia, there's still hope for a closer result.

Overall it wasn't a bad forecast. My main expectations was for some range-bound trading post-Brexit. This was generally correct. Even though volatility was much higher then expected, prices kept reverting back to the mean around 114.50 Euros per Yen.

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fxsurprise8 1 Aug.

The pair closed the contest period at 114.065, 46.9 pips away from my forecast. In percentage terms this is around 0.41%. This should be enough to score a winning position but probably not at the top.

Today went similarly to how the entire previous month did, lots of volatility with little to show for it. The daily high stands at 114.73 while the low is at 113.92. From open to the mid-day price at 12:00 however, the range was only 17 pips.

Market participants are trying to outsmart each other but with the summer in full swing and the BOJ behind us, trends are bound to be short-lived here.

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EUR/JPY Monthly Range Cut in Half

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 May as Analysis on EUR/JPY, Target: 123.271, Date: 1st of July, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Ecb #Euro #EUR/JPY #Eurozone #Japanese Yen #Range Trading #Yen Pairs #Range Box #Half
The EUR/JPY had a slow month. We closed May higher by 152 pips or only 1.2 percent. We opened the month at 121.72 and closed it at 123.23. Even the high/low range is not much bigger at 316 pips. This compared with +600 pips ranges in each of the four previous months.
If we drill down on the lower time-frame charts this aimless volatility is even easier to notice. Until we break either 124.66 or 121.47 the prudent course of action is to bet on prices staying flat.
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EUR/JPY to Stabilize at Double Bottom

fxsurprise8 Posted 30 Apr. as Analysis on EUR/JPY, Target: 121.75, Date: 1st of June, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR #EUR/JPY #Volatility #Price Action #Double Bottom #Bottom #Japanese Yen #Formation #Range Bound
The EUR/JPY has lost a lot of ground in April. The pair closed the month lower by 636 pips. On the first picture below we can see that the currency pair is oversold on the lower timeframes according to the Stochastic Oscillator. Values below 20 indicate an oversold market.
Let's go up in timeframes. On the daily chart below we see that the pair is now right at a critical support level. This area around 122 Euros per Yen has acted as support on two other separate occasions, forming a double botto…
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fxsurprise8 25 May

The 122.00 support managed to hold up prices once again. We bounced from this level on May 2nd and on May 6th. That bounce took us much higher to 124.63 but we've since falling back.

The EUR/JPY is currently quoted at 122.91, about 120 pips away from my forecast. The 122 mark should continue to act as a magnet. I'm hoping that as we get closer to month-end we'll see renewed selling in this pair to bring me closer to my target.

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fxsurprise8 26 May

Very volatile session in the EUR/JPY but with little progress. During the Asian session heavy selling pushed this pair to a low of 122.25, only 50 pips away from my target.

But these lows were quickly bought up as risk appetite picked up across the board and the pair hit a high of 123.06 during the US session.

From here we got another reversal, this time downward as the EUR/JPY closed at 122.85. This is only 1 pip below the daily open. Fundamentally nothing has changed in this pair, so counting on more stabilization and continued flirting with the 122 handle.

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fxsurprise8 27 May

Today we got another reversal close to the 122 handle. Prices bottomed out at 122.21 before clawing back some of the losses to close at 122.50.

This is 75 pips away from my target. With the Euro being heavily sold on Friday, we could see continuation of the EUR down moves next week to bring us closer to 121.75.

Technically the 122 handle continues to act as both support and a price magnet, inline with my analysis.

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fxsurprise8 1 June

Time for another update!  In the past few days the EUR/JPY had a wild ride. On Monday we rallied to a high of 124.18. But these gains were short-lived as today we crashed back down to.....wait for it.....yes the 122.00 handle again!

The pair bottomed out at 121.98 this morning, then bounced to an interim high of 122.82 before trading back down to the 122.00 handle yet again. We are currently quoted exactly at this level (122.003) with only few hours to go in the contest.

Given how volatile this pair has been today, it will be part luck how close the EUR/JPY gets to my 121.75 target.

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