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False Breakout for the Swedish Krona

fxsurprise8 投稿日: 2016年11月30日。分析予想通貨ペア:EUR/SEK, 予想レート: 9.7714, 予想日: 2日1月, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR #SEK #EU #Support #Resistance #Sweden #EUR/SEK #Swedish Krona #Reversion
The Euro rallied strongly against the Swedish Krona at the end of October. It even broke above the long-term resistance near 9.7300. But as can be seen on the chart below, all those gains evaporated in a span of few weeks. We are now quoted at 9.7713, only 0.41% away from the 9.7300 breakout point.
The strong rejection of the upside move and the near-complete retracement to the breakout point suggests that the rally in this pair is over. As we can see on the chart below, all previous breakouts, …
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Gains for EUR/SEK WIll Not Last

fxsurprise8 投稿日: 2016年10月31日。分析予想通貨ペア:EUR/SEK, 予想レート: 9.9145, 予想日: 1日12月, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR #SEK #EU #Resistance #Breakout #Sweden #Range #EUR/SEK #Swedish Krona
The EUR/SEK finally managed to break above a two-year resistance line at 9.7256. But I don't think these gains will last and here's why. We're now quoted at 9.9140, only 1.9 percent away from the resistance. This is a fairly small amount.
But more important, this type of breakouts have happened many times in the past few years and it always ended in tears for the bears. Take a look at the chart below. We mark several bullish breakouts and they all ended with prices reverting deep towards the mea…
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fxsurprise8 2016年11月28日

So far the general theme of my forecast has been correct. The EUR/SEK is currently quoted at 9.7746, well below the highs reached back in October.

As recent history shows (see the second chart above) breakouts in this pair tend to fail. After hitting a high of 10.0808 on US election day, it has been down ever since for the EUR/SEK.

Few days ago we hit a low of 9.7409 and we're now trading at 9.7746, about 1.4% away from my forecasted price. Let's hope that mean-reversion kicks in again, this time pushing prices higher from oversold territory.

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EUR/PLN Still Inside Five-Year Range

fxsurprise8 投稿日: 2016年09月30日。分析予想通貨ペア:EUR/PLN, 予想レート: 4.2963, 予想日: 1日11月, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #PLN #EU #Euro #Poland #50 Retracement #Range #EUR/PLN #Range Bound #Polish Zloty
The EUR/PLN continues to trade inside a five-year range. Since the start of 2011 this pair has moved without a clear trend or direction. We opened 2012 at 4.4464 and we're currently quoted at 4.2964, only 3.37% away. This is a negligible amount for four years and 9 months of trading.
On the lower time-frames things aren't looking great for momentum traders either. Notice how directionless ranges prevail here as well. Another reason why am I betting on the pair staying near the current price is t…
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fxsurprise8 2016年10月31日

The EUR/PLN is now trading at 4.3095 (bid), a distance of only 0.31% from my target price at 4.2963.

The total monthly range in this pair has been 861 pips,with a high at 4.3020 and a low at 4.2585. While in pips this seems high, in percentage terms this is only 2 percent.

Price movements have range-bound as well. After we opened the month at 4.3020 first we fell a low of 4.2585, then rallied to a high of 4.3446, before falling back close to the opening price (now at 4.3095).

In short the month has been slow, with prices trading in a range that's inside the bigger range noted above.

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fxsurprise8 2016年11月01日

Let's do another update and this time we'll add some charts as well. On the picture above we can see an updated version of our chart.

Notice how the monthly range during October fits neatly inside the larger congestion area this year. And that range is inside the 5-year congestion that started back in 2012.

With prices now quoted at 4.3123, only 0.37% away from my target , betting on prices staying range-bound is showing to be a good bet. There's still some time left in the contest and with the momentum during the past 24h tilting toward the downside, a more accurate forecast seems likely.

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fxsurprise8 2016年11月02日

Time for a final update! According to the charts at 12:00 the pair was trading at 4.3143. This is 0.41% away from my 4.2963 forecast. Likely not good enough for 1st but depending on the accuracy of others, it could lend me a spot near the top.

See the chart above that demonstrates why my forecast worked so well. October is shown by a rectangle. Notice how the 2% range we had this month is within the bounds of the red lines.

The two red lines mark this year's range for EUR/PLN. And this year's range in within the congestion area that started back in 2012. This area is marked with black lines.

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EUR/TRY to Continue Range-bound Trading

fxsurprise8 投稿日: 2016年03月31日。分析予想通貨ペア:EUR/TRY, 予想レート: 3.2044, 予想日: 1日5月, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR #EU #EUR/TRY #Range #Try #Range Trading #Turkish Lira
EUR/TRY has been little changed in the past few weeks. Notice the tight range during the most of this month. With a high at 3.2155 and a low at 3.1990, the total range has been just under 1.6 percent.
Let's take a longer view as well. On the weekly chart below we can see that the pair has been stuck in a large wedge. This pattern is a consolidation pattern plus it gets narrower with time. This means that the oscillations in the price will decrease going forward.
Since I'm betting on no major cha…
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fxsurprise8 avatar
fxsurprise8 2016年04月28日

The wedge formation is still holding up. We're now quoted at 3.1917. The pair has been bouncing on the 3.18 level for the past few weeks, unable to break it.

I certainly got the mode right, the EUR/TRY continued to range this month. The total move low to high is now at 2.7%. A bit larger then the move seen in the previous month.

Regarding my forecast, the pair is still around 0.40% away from 3.2044. This may give me a prize position but a top five finish will probably need better accuracy. Let's see what the last two days of this month have in store for us!

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hrustiashka 2016年04月28日

Good luck!)

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Yulia10 2016年04月29日

well done!

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fxsurprise8 2016年04月29日

The EUR/TRY is slowly inching higher toward my target. Currently we're quoted at 3.1930, after trading as high as 3.2048 earlier in the day.

The Euro rally is helping the left side of this pair but the Turkish Lira isn't giving up yet. The technical picture has remained the same as in my original post. The pair is still firmly locked inside that wedge pattern.

Still, the last minute day-to-day fluctuations will determine how accurate my forecast is on May 1st.

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fxsurprise8 2016年05月01日

A late day rally on Friday helped my forecast somewhat but then low liquidity struck. The EUR/TRY closed on Friday at 3.19738 (bid) and 3.20855 (ask) . The large spreads into the weekend have artificially pushed the pair further below my 3.2044 forecast.

It's not clear if this will be the final price, usually the TA contests end on a Monday. Will post another update.

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EURo to Breakout Higher

fxsurprise8 投稿日: 2016年03月31日。分析予想通貨ペア:EUR/USD, 予想レート: 1.1689, 予想日: 1日5月, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EU #Ecb #Euro #Trend #Breakout #EUR/USD #Rally #Us Dollar
The Euro had a bumpy ride these past few months. First it rallied to 1.1375, then fell to 1.0825. Then rallied back up to 1.1341 before retracing to 1.1143. We are currently back up to 1.1345. This zig-zag movement is visible on the chart below.
But if we zoom in on a larger time-frame, the picture is a bit more clear. Here we can see that the pair has been bumping on this fairly large resistance area from around 1.13 -1.15 Euros per Dollar. This constant pressure should eventually break this r…
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EUR/PLN Returning to the Mean

fxsurprise8 投稿日: 2016年03月31日。分析予想通貨ペア:EUR/PLN, 予想レート: 4.2411, 予想日: 1日5月, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR #PLN #EU #Euro #Crisis #Election #EUR/PLN #Polish Zloty
The crisis after the Polish election threatened to rock the stability seen in the pair for the past few years. The EUR/PLN rallied from a low of 4.21 to a high of 4.51 in less then one month. But all this changed in the past few weeks.. The pair has fallen from a high of 4.51 to a low of 4.2357 yesterday. The pair is now heavily oversold as can be seen on he Stochastic indicator below.
But I'm not betting on a reversal in this pair. Why? Let's check out a longer chart. On the weekly chart below …
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fxsurprise8 2016年04月26日

I got one thing right in my analysis and one thing wrong. First, the 4.24 support is exactly where the pair bounced higher from its oversold condition.

But the sharp gains in this pair since April 21st have moved the pair far away from my target, currently quoted at 4.3700.

Let's hope that some of the mean reversion I wrote about comes back and brings the pair downward.

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EUR/GBP Hits Old Resistance Area

fxsurprise8 投稿日: 2016年03月31日。分析予想通貨ペア:EUR/GBP, 予想レート: 0.7923, 予想日: 1日5月, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EU #UK #Euro #Resistance #EUR/GBP #Pound #Resistance Area
The EUR/GBP could be forming a top. After reaching a high of 0.7927 the pair was rejected down to 0.7652. Then we rallied again, hit a new high at 0.7946 only to get rejected a second time. Today we rallied to 0.7944 and predictably, we fell again. The chart below shows these unsuccessful pushes.
I don't think the pair will manage to break higher. Even if we look at the longer-term weekly chart, we can see that the 0.7800 - 0.8000 area was where prices spent the entire second half of 2014. Histo…
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fxsurprise8 2016年04月23日

This pair is proving to be a lot more volatile then usual. In the early part of this month it overshoot my noted resistance to hit 0.8115. Then it crashed down to close at 0.7788 on Friday. I'm guessing a lot of this volatility is GBP related due to the coming EU-referendum.

Fundamentally my call still looks solid. Until yesterday's extreme sell-off the EUR/GBP was trading around 0.7860 to 0.7990 for several days. Hopefully now some mean reversion buyers kickin and bring the EUR/GBP closer to my target.

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fxsurprise8 2016年04月26日

The unrelenting selling in this pair continues, now at 0.7750. The strong GBP has been the main driver here.

My forecast above correctly identified the overbought market but as noted in the previous comment, volatility is high. First we overshoot to the upside now to the downside. Maybe after all is said and done and things calm down we can see movement higher closer to my target.

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EUR/GBP to Stabilize in June

fxsurprise8 投稿日: 2015年05月31日。分析予想通貨ペア:EUR/GBP, 予想レート: 0.7172, 予想日: 1日7月, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EU #UK #Euro #EUR/GBP #Pound #UK Election
The EUR/GBP had a wild ride in May. With a total monthly range of 428 pips, the pair experiences large volatility, mainly on the back of the UK election.
With that event now out of the way, I expect prices to stabilize going forward. The technical picture too points me in this direction. The 0.7190 level is a 61 percent Fibonacci retracement of the last EUR/GBP move higher (marked on the chart below). This is also not far from Friday's close at 0.7183. I expect this level to put pressure on any …
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Three Month Losing Streak to End

fxsurprise8 投稿日: 2014年10月27日。分析予想通貨ペア:EUR/USD, 予想レート: 1.2726, 予想日: 1日12月, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EU #Euro #EUR/USD #Us Dollar
The single currency had 3 months of undisputed losses. In July, the Euro lost 301 pips. In August, the losses were a smaller 259 pips. But in September, the fall was dramatic, taking prices to a low of 1.2570 before closing the month at 1.2629, a massive 497 pips in the red.
After a brief dip to 1.2500 in October however, the common currency has rebounded somewhat, rallying to a high of 1.2884 on October 15th. Since then the EUR/USD has been stuck in this large range between 1.2500 and 1.2900. I…
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EUR/GBP to Remain Above 0.7750

fxsurprise8 投稿日: 2014年09月30日。分析予想通貨ペア:EUR/GBP, 予想レート: 0.7788, 予想日: 3日11月, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EU #Ecb #Euro #EUR/GBP #Eurgbp #Sterling #Pound
It's been a tough September for the Euro. The single currency lost over 120 pips against a resurgent Pound. Here's a daily chart that showcases the losses in the EUR.
Let's take a look at the longterm charts. Below you can see a monthly chart. The 2012 low for the EUR/GBP was at 0.7756. I expect this figure to act as support to the currency pair so I'm betting on prices staying above this level during October.
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VictoriaVika 2014年10月05日

Well done!

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