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USD momentum slowing near support

Jignesh Publier 5 avr  dans #Trader's blog #Dxy
It was the day for the Japaense Yen, as it was the clear leader, but the USD did not do much of anything.
Below is a chart of the US Dollar Weighted index (ticker:dxy)
The pair is in a clear downtrend. Today the index has been consolidating near the bottom of the channel. It is very possible to get a bounce here, but nothing to rule out a spike lower while still containing the daily channel.
It seems a bit late to get involved with the JPY, and best to stay on the side lines with USD. Tomorrow i…
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2 Commentaires
sharpsense avatar
sharpsense 6 avr

Some Little us Strenth ahead? we will see

Jignesh avatar
Jignesh 6 avr

possible.  overall i don't have any clear signals.  I'm considering the theory of a spike lower and then USD strength.. but will stay on the side lines and see what happens.

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USD Struggling to hold on to gains

Jignesh Publier 10 nov  dans #Trader's blog #USD #Dollar #Dollar Index #Dxy
The USD started the NY session off with a vengeance taking out new lows in EURUSD. But as the London session closed, we've seen the EURUSD start to give back it's gains.
It seems clear that the USD is in an uptrend. However, the chances of some type of short squeeze seems likely as we see net shorts increase two week in a row already as of last Tuesdays report. It is very likely this number gained even further this past week with the fundamental events that have occurred.
According to COT Report…
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USD At High's once again

Jignesh Publier 2 mar  dans #Trader's blog #Eurusd #Dxy
The USD has made a bullish break (DXY) relative late in the session. Not a move that I would expect to occur after the London Close.
At the beginning of the week, it was clear that at some point the Dollar Index would retest highs and do a possible stop run, However it's quite early in the week I believe to be positioning for NFP, and I will be looking to fade the Dollar here.
Support in the EURUSD comes in at 1.1170, where there is also an 88.8% retracement of the last leg down. I've set my lon…
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Outlook for March

Jignesh Publier 1 mar  dans #Trader's blog #USD #Eurusd #Dxy
The USD mostly consolidated in the month of February, and failed to make new highs. The same can be said for the EURUSD.
Fundamentals have shifted a bit, with a focus on inflation in recent guidance from the FED. But the markets quickly dismissed it after a good CPI reading, which has left the Dollar Index to close at monthly highs once again.
There will need to be some form of a catalyst to drive the USD higher, and thus until such break occurs Dollar shorts may be the obvious trade.
The Curren…
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USD Once again at Support

Jignesh Publier 25 fév  dans #Trader's blog #USD #Dxy
The DXY has been range bound all week.
Currently there is a trendline on the 4H chart and we've seen the USD get a big bounce every time we have reached it. But after Yellen's testimony we once again are supported by the trendline, yet not able to make a meaningful push higher.
There is some risk event up tomorrow, but the likeliness of a breakdown on the last trading day of the week and month seems rather unlikely.
I largely expect the USD to continue to range to finish the week off.
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Gold Fakes lower but closes above Support

Jignesh Publier 23 fév  dans #Trader's blog #USD #Dxy #Xauusd
Ahead of the key testimony tomorrow from Yellen, which will decide the near term fate of the USD, Gold made a bearish downside break. The move occurred mid day and took out a daily trendline as well as a key 61.8 fib retracement. However, the below chart shows the metal managed to rally back and close above the trendline and fib retracement.
Such moves are very typical and referred to as 'fake-outs' which usually happen before a big move. With Gold setting up for a larger potential bullish move,…
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USD Closes Higher for the week despite Fed Statement

Jignesh Publier 22 fév  dans #Trader's blog #USD #Eurusd #Dxy
The US Dollar Closed the week higher despite a FOMC statement that warned traders of a potential push back in a rate hike.
The FOMC statement outlined some concerns with inflation, which has been on a decline since the plunge in oil prices. Inflation is a key element to monetary policy, and with interest rate hikes on the loom, the Fed has expressed concerns over potential deflation. This is already a major concern globally and other central banks have already acted by making adjustments to thei…
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Gold Completes Downside Correction - At Key Turning Point

Jignesh Mis à jour 12 fév  dans #Trader's blog #USD #XAU #Dxy #Us Dollar
The Gold Wave count shows that the downside correction from 1307 highs has completed at 1219, the 50% Fib retracement of the move up.
We can see a reversal from current levels for either the bigger C Leg to take us to the 1330 area, or a pull back against the downtrend. Current view prefers another leg higher as the main wave from lows is a single correction so far.
This translates into another leg of weakness for the Dollar, driving the crosses higher for the next few weeks
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Dollar Index weekly hanging man - further weakness to come?

Jignesh Publier 10 oct  dans #Trader's blog #Eurusd #Dxy
The Dollar Index has posted a bearish candle on the weekly chart for the first time since early July.
The hanging man that can be seen below is on the back of a dovish statement this past week from the Fed's recent FOMC minutes release. The Dollar did rally a bit to close the week, but the weekly candles hint that another leg of USD weakness cannot be ruled out.
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Eyes on US Dollar Index

Jignesh Mis à jour 3 sep  dans #Trader's blog #USD #Eurusd #Gold #Dxy
The US Dollar Index is once again at a key technical level.
The 82.97-83.00 area marks an area that makes the first leg of the up move a common fib proportion to the second leg.
So far the 4H chart shows the price is contained by this area, but has not show any kind of major pull back as of yet.
This key area can potentially mark an area where the long awaited pull back in the USD can occur, and potentially last through out the month.
In other correlations, Gold has broken through it's daily tre…
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