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USD/CHF to test 200 week SMA before bouncing

al_dcdemo Publicado 4 Dic como análisis en USD/CHF, Objetivo: 0.9825, Fecha: 1 de Febrero, 12:00 GMT  en #Technical analysis #Double Bottom #Daily Chart #USD/CHF #Range Trading #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Net Short Positioning #Monetary Policy Divergence
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
USD/CHF broke below 200 week SMA and posted a weekly close below historically strong support at 0.95 twice, but losses were reversed promptly on bot…
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al_dcdemo 24 Dic

UPDATE 6: Week ahead could easily end up being the least active week of the year. But otherwise subdued periods have often proved quite volatile in recent years. "Expect the unexpected" is a saying that is useful to always keep in mind in trading business.

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al_dcdemo 27 Dic

UPDATE 7: The U.S. dollar started this holiday-shortened week on the back foot. Falling U.S. treasury bond yields and rally in commodities have been two drivers. Year-end position squaring could lead to some messy price action into the end of the week.

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al_dcdemo 30 Dic

UPDATE 8: U.S. dollar ended this year on a softer note. The dollar index posted its lowest monthly close since 2014. Expectations of other major central banks following Fed into hawkish direction are beginning to outweigh the still present monetary policy divergence.

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al_dcdemo 10 Ene

UPDATE 9: USD/CHF broke above the pivotal 0.98 level, after spending one week below it. Position in the futures market is net short, but not at extreme levels, so there might still be some upside potential. Trendline, drawn off of October and December highs, is the area to keep an eye on.

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al_dcdemo 25 Ene

UPDATE 10: U.S. dollar extended losses yesterday after treasury secretary Mnuchin told World Economic Forum that a weak dollar is good for trade. USD/CHF fell below 2014 - 2017 support line and stalled at the strong support area 0.94 - 0.945. A successful break would bring 0.90 - 0.91 into focus.

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USD/CHF to test below 0.98 in December

al_dcdemo Publicado 30 Nov como análisis en USD/CHF, Objetivo: 0.9775, Fecha: 2 de Enero, 12:00 GMT  en #Technical analysis #Double Bottom #Daily Chart #USD/CHF #Range Trading #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Net Short Positioning #Monetary Policy Divergence
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
USD/CHF broke below 200 week SMA and posted a weekly close below historically strong support at 0.95 twice, but losses were reversed promptly on bot…
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al_dcdemo 15 Dic

UPDATE 5: Fed hiked three times this year, which is at least one hike more than markets expected at the start of the year. FOMC's dot plot implies three hikes in 2018, markets are again not that hawkish. With so much money in the system and stock market seemingly engineered to go just up, federal funds rate could end up much higher than anyone expects. On the other hand, stock market bears have grown surprisingly quiet this year.

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al_dcdemo 23 Dic

UPDATE 6: U.S. dollar ended up higher against yen, marginally lower against franc and lower against other G10 major currencies this week. Even though monetary policy divergence is still in force, some of the recent trades have most certainly been made with convergence, which already started this year, in mind.

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al_dcdemo 24 Dic

UPDATE 7: Week ahead could easily end up being the least active week of the year. But otherwise subdued periods have often proved quite volatile in recent years. "Expect the unexpected" is one saying that is useful to always keep in mind in trading business.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 27 Dic

UPDATE 8: The U.S. dollar started this holiday-shortened week on the back foot. Falling U.S. treasury bond yields and rally in commodities have been two drivers. Year-end position squaring could result to some messy price action into the end of the week.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 30 Dic

UPDATE 9: U.S. dollar ended this year on a softer note. The dollar index posted its lowest monthly close since 2014. Expectations of other major central banks following Fed into hawkish direction are beginning to outweigh the still present monetary policy divergence.

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USD/JPY fails to follow through after last week strength

al_dcdemo Actualizado 1 Mar  en #Trader's blog #Support #Resistance #USD/JPY #Double Bottom #Weekly Close #D1 Chart
On Friday, it looked like a double bottom is in the making on USD/JPY. The pair concluded three day rally from lows with a daily and weekly close at the high.
On Monday, however, there wasn't any follow through. Instead, the pair fell right from the open and ended the day ten pips above Friday's low. That low was already busted today in early Asian trade. Downside again comes into focus with 112 and the 2013 - 2014 support line the first stronger levels to keep an eye on.
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USD/JPY to continue lower after a retracement

al_dcdemo Publicado 28 Feb como análisis en USD/JPY, Objetivo: 111.75, Fecha: 1 de Abril, 12:00 GMT  en #Technical analysis #Abenomics #USD/JPY #Double Bottom #Daily Chart #Short Squeeze #Support Zone #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
The pair broke below strong 115.50 - 116 support zone that was holding it since late 2014. Sharp decline has seen 100 week SMA taken out before it …
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al_dcdemo 18 Mar

UPDATE 6: Post-FOMC U.S. dollar selling continued yesterday and on some pairs even exceeded the initial (Wednesday) move. One of those pairs was USD/JPY which fell to the lowest level since October 2014 and it is rumoured that the BOJ have intervened in the market to stem the decline. 110.65 is the low from yesterday. 110 is the first major support level ahead of 38.2% retracement (~1.0675) of the Abenomics uptrend. 112 - 112.50 shall now act as a decent resistance.

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al_dcdemo 19 Mar

UPDATE 7: Surprisingly dovish FOMC spurred a U.S. dollar sell-off in which commodity currencies benefited the most. USD/JPY so far lost about two cents. It also had a positive effect on U.S. stocks with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones indices turning positive on the year. Given that the next candidate meeting for raising rates is not before June and even raising then is under question, the current U.S. dollar pullback is set to continue.

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al_dcdemo 23 Mar

UPDATE 8: Reaction in the stock markets and risk sensitive currency pairs to yesterday's attacks in Brussels so far suggests that this kind of event was basically priced in, which is not surprising given the number of prevented attacks in recent months. USD/JPY dipped about 75 pips in the immediate aftermath of the news but soon went sideways above 111.50. It climbed 80 pips in the U.S. session, taking out the European session high, but stalled ahead of 112.50.

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al_dcdemo 25 Mar

UPDATE 9: Good Friday and Easter Monday holidays will make this weekend four days long instead of usual two days. Even though U.S. resumes trading on Monday, full participation is not expected until Tuesday. We've already been witnessing low liquidity and volatility. Both shall remain on low levels during this period, though there's always possibility of a sharp move in such conditions.

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al_dcdemo 31 Mar

UPDATE 10: Tomorrow is a NFP day and, following recent dovish turn by the Fed, I would expect more U.S. dollar losses on a weaker than expected report than gains on a better than expected report. If I'd have to guess, I'd say we would get overall slightly better than expected report. Price action would depend on the pair, but would probably involve taking out stops on both sides with the dollar ending up near unchanged on the day.

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Aussie trades above double bottom

al_dcdemo Publicado 1 Oct  en #Trader's blog #Support #Resistance #AUD/USD #Double Bottom #Measured Target #H1 Chart
Aussie broke above mini double bottom pattern that was carved out during the past seven days. The first low was posted on Thursday last week and the second on Monday this week. Neckline runs near 0.7040 and measured target projects to 0.7140. With better risk sentiment and slightly less worrisome data from China overnight, pullback to the neckline may be a decent opportunity to go long.
Support:
0.7035 - 0.7055 (Weekly Pivot Point, 50's, Daily Resistance 1, Previous Day High, H1 200 SMA, H4 50 S…
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USD/CHF enjoys SNB support

al_dcdemo Publicado 30 Jun como análisis en USD/CHF, Objetivo: 0.9525, Fecha: 3 de Agosto, 12:00 GMT  en #Technical analysis #Double Bottom #USD/CHF #Fomc Meeting #Range #Strong Resistance #Snb Shocker #Turnaround #Neutral Technicals #Bullish Fundamentals
Monthly chart:
After breaking parity at the start of the year, the SNB shocker on January 15th sent the pair all the way down to 2011 lows. The actual low was 0.7263 or roughly just 70% of its value before the announcement. The turnaround was equally impressive and after barely two months the pair found itself testing middle of the pre-SNB range between parity and 1.03. It declined from there but managed to hold above both 20 and 50 month SMA. The latter is the line in sand: holding above is bul…
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al_dcdemo 25 Jul

UPDATE 8: Apart from a couple of low tier economic data points (UBS Consumption Indicator, KOF Economic Barometer) there's nothing particularly market moving on the calendar for the week ahead from Switzerland. Main risk events come from across the Atlantic: (Core) Durable Goods Orders, FOMC meeting, Advance GDP. Resistance is seen near 0.9750 (March 31th and April 22th highs) and then 0.9850 (April 13th high). Strong support remains in place at 0.95.

WallStreet6 avatar
WallStreet6 28 Jul

Also about 100 pips away! Great! If the dollar appreciates this week it may be very close!

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al_dcdemo 31 Jul

We'll see, it has to go down a bit. :)

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al_dcdemo 31 Jul

UPDATE 9: The pair continued its steady uptrend throughout the week. The most prominent feature of this uptrend are deep pullbacks, but they were all soaked up quickly as evident by the lower tails on recent daily candles. Even strong sell-off on Friday was reversed in just a couple of hours. It was the third week in the row that the pair ended up higher.

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al_dcdemo 1 Ago

UPDATE 10: As is usual for the first week of the month, we'll get a slew of economic data and it could get quite volatile. NFP report is the most important data point as the Fed may soon be hiking rates based on labour market strength. Demand may start coming in near 0.96 while the strong 0.95 level remains in place if we get any (un)expected sell-offs. Initial resistance is seen near 0.9725.

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USD/CHF will gain in the near-term

al_dcdemo Publicado 30 May como análisis en USD/CHF, Objetivo: 0.9625, Fecha: 1 de Julio, 12:00 GMT  en #Technical analysis #Double Bottom #USD/CHF #Fomc Meeting #Range #Parity #Snb Shocker #200 Day Sma #Bullish Technicals #Neutral Fundamentals
Monthly chart:
The pair has broken parity on the first trading day of the year. It was trading around 1.02 when SNB shocker sent it all the way down to 2011 lows. The actual low was 0.7263 or roughly just 70% of its value before the announcement. The turnaround was equally impressive and after barely two months the pair found itself testing middle of the pre-SNB range between parity and 1.03. That was near-term top and it declined from there but it still managed to recoup more than three quarter…
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al_dcdemo 7 Jun

UPDATE 4: The pair ended the week near opening levels what may signal indecision in the market. Initial support is seen around 0.9350 and then between 0.9270 - 0.9300. If that gives way, a retest of May lows below 0.91 may ensue. On the upside, 50 and 100 DMA (currently just above 0.9450) are the first stronger levels of resistance, but the pair will need to convincingly break above 0.95 and 200 DMA to re-establish the bullish bias.

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al_dcdemo 14 Jun

UPDATE 5: Even though the pair reversed half of post-NFP losses on Friday and proceeded with a strong decline on Monday, support at 0.9250 held twice before sending the pair back toward 0.94, to just below declining trendline (drawn off March, April and May highs) where it stalled and turned back lower. The pair ended the week slightly behind EUR/USD, but the weekly candle looks more convincing with regard to the trend continuation likehood.

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al_dcdemo 15 Jun

UPDATE 6: Besides the Fed, the SNB is another central bank that will hold its meeting in the week ahead. No change from them is the most probable and widely expected outcome. The pair has been trading below 50, 100 and 200 DMA since the beginning of the month and, while it is holding below the averages (especially 200), the sellers appear to be in control. Trendline, drawn off March, April and May highs, will be the first level to watch on the upside.

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al_dcdemo 26 Jun

UPDATE 7: In the beginning of the week the pair mostly mirrored its cousin EUR/USD as it hasn't been able to break lower on Monday and then rocketed on Tuesday instead. The remaining three days were range-bound, but the range was wider and swings looked wilder. EUR/CHF flows were likely responsible for the part of this action as the Greek story and uncertainty was weighing on traders' decisions every day.

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al_dcdemo 27 Jun

UPDATE 8: There's nothing of note from Switzerland on the calendar for the week ahead. Saturday's Eurogroup Meeting and the rest of the weekend talks appear to be the single most important fundamental factor. Given that the pair usually closely follows the Euro, we may get huge gap open on Monday if we get a deal or if potential for Greek default rises. Especially in the latter case it will be interesting to see the reaction in the pair.

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